SBF

📷 Two wins for homebuyers in two days 📷 1) Fannie Mae to accept crypto-backed mortgages 2) Trump admin to streamline permitting

dibs

LATEST: ⚡ The FTX Recovery Trust will distribute $2.2 billion to creditors on March 31, bringing its total payouts to roughly $10 billion since February 2025.

SBF and Carolyn were the two greatest investors in recent US History. @SBF_FTX The portfolio was destroyed by US Bankruptcy attorneys.

I'll say what everyone is thinking out loud. SBF should have been the Vice President of the US right now [not JD Vance], if it weren't for FTX. With his tremendous leadership skills [he created FTX, don't forget - a feat far greater than running a country], WE could've easily prevented being in the mix with ALL of the Middle East nonsense atm. I, for one, say we should sign a petition to free him and bring him into the oval office ASAP. It is a damn shame to waste such a brilliant mind when we could be utilizing his intellect to advance America. #FreeThatNiggaSBF - LET'S GET IT TRENDING! ~ Dr. Axius.

🔵 FTX's Best Investments - What They'd Be Worth Today? - $500M in Anthropic would be ~$19B - $648M in Robinhood would be ~$4.3B - $1.2B in Solana would be ~$3.8B - $1.15B in Genesis Digital Assets would be ~$2B+ - $700M in K5 Global would be ~$1.5B+ - $102M in Sui would be ~$900M - $200K in Cursor would be ~$100M+ Could have been the greatest venture portfolio ever built.

The costs of striking Iran are real. But so is the nuclear threat. Iran entered 2026 with enough uranium for 10 nuclear bombs. Before the June strikes, it was days away from enriching enough for 1 bomb—a level far beyond plausible civilian needs. Operation Epic Fury is working. We are systematically dismantling Iran’s war machine: missiles, drones, air defenses, navy, nuclear sites, defense industry, proxy networks, central command. In under 3 weeks, the supreme leader is dead, his successor wounded, and Iranian ballistic missile and drone launches are down 90%+. Iran is losing capacity faster than it can create chaos. "War is never clean. But the strategy—the actual strategy, measured in degraded capabilities rather than cable news cycles—is working." Excellent article. aljazeera.com/opinions/2026/…

In 2024, FTX sold its 8% stake in Anthropic for $1.3 billion as part of its bankruptcy proceedings. Today, that same 8% stake would be worth over $30,000,000,000

maturing is realizing that FTX was one of the best investors in crypto industry: > $500M in Anthropic would now be worth roughly $30.4B > $1B in Solana would now be worth roughly $5.1B > $648M in Robinhood would be $5.7B > $100M in Sui would be $1.2B > $1.15B in Genesis Digital Assets would be $3.5B > $700M in SpaceX via K5 would be $3B did some estimates and their total portfolio would be up from $4.7B to $52.5B which is a $47.8B in rise absolutely nuts

FTX’s $500 million Anthropic stake would be worth $30 billion today 👇

@Fityeth The lawyer who filed FTX for bankruptcy said Anthropic was worth "nothing" and sold the stake for $1.3b.

Sam Bankman Fried invested $500M in Anthropic. That stake would now be worth roughly $70B. Let that sink in

The current spike only highlights how much oil prices have lowered under @realDonaldTrump. 🛢️: Trump (2017-2020): $58 Biden (2021-2024): $83 Trump (2025): $68 Average price over the whole of 2022: $99 Price yesterday: $100 Calm down.

@NeverGoon You're not gonna believe this....

Solana was really 8 dollars at one point and mfs just sat there and dug in they ass

FTX had the liquidity to cover spot. Most assets were in the margin/lending program. (Customers, incl. Alameda, could opt into margin trading using a shared collateral pool.) FTX could cover the rest. No margin exchange is 100% liquid. storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.usco… storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.usco… storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.usco…

How @realDonaldTrump fixed the SEC: fire Gensler, hire Atkins. Gensler didn't just declare war on crypto. He declared war on the CFTC. Not in public, obviously. But behind closed doors, he and @SenWarren ran a covert campaign in DC to strip the CFTC of all of its power—bringing everything under his SEC. (And then used that power to require licenses he was unwilling to grant.) Gensler's land grab was the biggest threat to crypto under Biden; we spent much of our time in DC fighting against it. Atkins understands: only require licenses that actually exist. And don't let industry get caught in the crossfire between warring federal agencies.

You know things are bad when 'CT is boring' shows up under Today's News. I'm bored too. Hey I have an idea. x.com/i/trending/203…

The latency was fucking brutal—each extra 100ms is a huge disadvantage. I was, in fact, multi-tasking most of the time I played on one thing or another, which explains some of it. Also, there is not an obvious 1:1 correspondence between rankings on different servers (like the differences between US and Korean SC servers). But that can only explain so much. If you look back further in my history, you'll see that, when I played regularly on a nearby server, I peaked in Plat, briefly, though spent more time in Gold. Which is less embarrassing, but still not as good as I hoped I'd be. My reaction time and fine motor skills are mediocre. Despite how much I played, I was never able to find enough meaning from it to motivate me fully. But there's probably more than that.

SBF’s League of Legends thing is actually pretty interesting. We know that Sam played a lot of the game. Here’s a screenshot from 2021 showing ~800 games in a single season (one year), which is a lot, anecdotally speaking. Each game lasts about 45 minutes, so that’s roughly 2 hours a day, every day, for a year. Sam also used to tweet frequently about the game (including about how much he played). Despite this, as you might be aware, he had an abysmally low ranking -- around mid-Bronze at the time. His username was known, so there’s not much uncertainty around this. Mid-Bronze corresponds to being lower than about 75% of all ranked players (probably charitable) -- which includes many casuals, as well as plenty of children who play the game. It used to take, if I recall correctly, roughly 10 games to get ranked in a season. Sam had nearly a thousand. So we know that Sam played a lot and seemed to care about getting better (direct quote: “I know I've said its name enough to imply I'm good at it, but I'm really not. It's actually embarrassing how little I've grown at it”.), but still fluctuated around the 25th percentile. This is fairly surprising to me, because League is decently g-loaded, and all of his other credentials imply he has meaningfully high general intelligence (Jane Street, MIT physics/math, 99.5th percentile as a reasonable base case for consensus?) If you’ve played the game, or MOBAs in general, you can probably tell that it’s decently g-loaded. The one peer-reviewed study that exists on this finds about a ~0.44 correlation between experienced League of Legends Elo and fluid intelligence (think matrix-based IQ tests). Here are some comparables so you can intuit whether that’s meaningful: > SAT ~0.82 > High school grades ~0.54 > Educational-context math achievement ~0.41 > Youth chess ~0.32 > Unranked chess ~0.32 > Ranked chess ~0.14 > Adult chess ~0.11 These numbers aren’t strictly comparable (different samples/corrections etc.), but they’re OK for intuition. So intelligence is roughly as predictive of League rank as of classroom math achievement, and quite a bit more than in any mainstream chess sample. Now, this is just one study with a sample of 56, and we’re doing serious hand-waving, so maybe that estimate is a bit off, but let’s assume for now that it’s broadly right (it doesn’t *sound* very wrong). What are the odds that someone with ~99.5th percentile fluid intelligence ends up at the 25th percentile in a game 0.44 correlated with fluid intelligence? With some naive assumptions -- roughly 2%. In that case, we should plausibly be able to find a non–cognitive-capacity source of the large residual, but I can’t really think of anything obvious. I think he played on the Japanese server, which would mean he’d have higher latency than normal, but I’ve played on comparable latencies and seen many do the same -- it usually doesn’t meaningfully move rank away from the normal counterfactual. Set aside some of the statistics for a second and move away from precision -- given all the uncertainty -- and think of a hypothetical with comparable but more intuitive tasks with similar loadings. Imagine a future MIT/JS guy who perpetually ranks at the 25th percentile in his average high school math class despite putting in effort, or one who spends hundreds of hours a year on chess and still ranks in the bottom 25 percent of a cohort (which should be less surprising given the meaningfully lower loadings). How surprised would you be? Actually, very? Maybe he had really bad motor skills? That seems unlikely for a trader, I’ve gotten tested on motor skills before in interviews. He seemed to consistently play only a few champions (characters), a lot of people underperform because they jump around too much, so that doesn’t explain it either. Some emotional/personality extremes, issues with frustration, etc.? Probably the most plausible ex post. But it would have to have been pretty bad -- the guy is bad at chess because he’s too emotional? That’s pretty bad. Something still feels off, and I assume we’re probably overweighing his g -- paired with tiger parent pedigree (2 Stanford Law profs, elite prep school) inflating the other meritocracy signals, this is probably a fair update.

AI's current bottleneck is adoption. Actual adoption. Reorganizing firms around the full potential of the latest models; not "we bought ChatGPT Enterprise." Adoption tells you nothing about the eventual scale of economic impact. AI is still underpriced.