👣step-by-step

@PaulPortesi It's never what you stand for, it's what you reject, get rejected and still can get up from

It's never what you stand for, it's what you get up from.

@PaulPortesi The preference of prison will change over years. The question will soon convert to what prison I do NOT want to be in.

The idea is you're in prison you just have to figure out which prison you want to be in. It's never the physical prison it's the emotional prison that you have to learn to manage.

@daggercapital Sir, thanks and congratulations! Genuinely asking only: could your system have predicted bottom of the 7th April 2025?Apparently no such post. Thanks

$SPY $SPX predicted bottom achieved. Full positions have been executed. Quantitative Methods: 1 Naysayers: 0 Welcome to my world of Algo-Succession Concepts. See post in comments for further guidance going forward.

@fit_businessman Thanks for the levels and transparence,again!

@scalingups I am hedged 5 puts and will start adding at 676 gap fill. The price action is not what want to see if bullish. I am tactical long to 680. We still have work to do underneath.

$SPY Strong defense against $25B systematic selling yesterday. Don’t like these gap ups heading into vixperation. The setup is bearish if riding high into tomorrow with 2 gaps under us. Just be careful deeper into bull trap we go. 672/676/683.36 levels that need to be taken out. Not a time to get FOMO. VCF sold $9B yesterday and CTA sold $16B.. **CTA SHORT $18B now.** VCF sellers today $9B +1%; $6B -1%

@reddragon2604 If I understand the predator’s calendar correctly, I also think of mid-end of today as a perfect rollover. Hence probably a good move. Let’s see

@fit_businessman 🫡 you are very transparent and well positioned ST (if calls today only), I would call it a huge bull trap before down trend continues (right after today). Just my 2cents

@scalingups It’s feeling baity here.. I am positioned in calls but I don’t like seeing these big gaps and early run up bc it’s capping how high we can go on mechanics.. MM going to burn positioning so need to expect this is a trap. Hopefully we can fill 676 gap

@fit_businessman I understand now. Think rather of the 1st scenario, though, for myself (maybe with most market unprepared, but who knows)

@scalingups Todays. Tomorrow is generally counter trend. The problem is suppressing volatility in order for price to keep climbing which coils Vix for a spike rather than suppression reset vixexp. Ideally red today, vix up= vix down, price up tomorrow.

@reddragon2604 Fwiw, since you are sharing quite a lot & useful things, this market is very hot considering the hardware price upward trends (myself, no clue at all where we are in this sector, since astonished by its strength, hence just sharing maybe also useful info on this):

The Strait of Hormuz carries about 20% of the world's oil. The Iranian oil is still getting through and some other oil is getting diverted through pipelines. So, right now, about 10% of the world's oil supply is being blocked. How much higher would oil prices need to rise to destroy 10% of global oil demand? We have fairly good demand elasticity estimates for oil from James Hamilton and others. In general, they suggest that in the short run, oil demand is highly inelastic, with demand elasticities in the range of -0.05 to -0.1. This means that every 10% increase in oil prices would reduce demand by 0.5% to 1%. Thus, to reduce demand by 10%, oil prices would need to double and possibly triple. Let's hope that does not happen.

Are there any variables other than oil prices that could give investors an early warning sign about turning points in global equities? We suggest monitoring two indicators: (1) the stock prices of energy producers and (2) the ratio of the LMEX (industrial metals) index-to-oil prices. We examined the first Gulf War in 1990 and found that the share prices of energy producers led both oil prices and the S&P 500 during this time. The chart below demonstrates that energy producers’ share prices anticipated the major turning points in crude prices and led the S&P 500’s major reversal in 1990. see the next post

@FinancialArmy_ @AlexTimberlake9 @omshanti08 the weakest chain element to break now: if Japan, because being most inflation/ rates sensitive, or just Japan as a synonym of the end of « risk-on regime »..?!

@AlexTimberlake9 @omshanti08 @scalingups Both import their oil, so I’m sure both have issues if price stays elevated

@omshanti08 🙏(I understand that you expect some HF /banks being caught on wrong foot, seen in a few months, triggering off (or triggered of by) interventions,Recession,And lost midterm elections? So we are at 2/3 of the oil rise, -should it continue, along with political us engagement?)🫡

@michaeljburry Thank you very much, Sir!

In light of market events, I am making this article free for the next 24 hours. Foundations: U.S. Market Structure & Value Powerful Trends, Increasing Fragility & Coiled Tension open.substack.com/pub/michaeljbu…

@omshanti08 @signal2noisebtc Probably I understand it incorrectly but I am reading you that we should see the high vola continue&no compression expected into much lower vola environment? How long in days till selloff event? Pls, more hints on your system.Any mix sample to expect from past events?🙏🫡

@omshanti08 Energy&Vola carve Highs&lows (confidence,buying power,inflation,fed policy) &controls/signals what markets do.Vola gets elevated whenever trends change&assets subject to S/L squeezes, if prior trend long/crowded enough (+GS/VCF ‘help’),&then sudden triggers:weather/politi.events?

@omshanti08 Indeed, an irony (=1exception) here that thanks to twitter, we can learn of you, talk to you, …while reading from you the stuff which really matters (wisdom!). With so improved basis, we hopefully get also better in more noticing & rejecting BS on x and irl. Thank you so much!

@omshanti08 Thank you Mr. Wolf! Your hints on the system are always greatly appreciated!

@BigBrainPhiloso Our path (incl self and/or identification)is determined by contin.choices of least pain (=who I am not willing to be and not willing to act like). +max gain if young.Our path is resulting from and orginating to different things.=life

@BigBrainPhiloso especially visible, the older we get (although effective each time before too), it is rather all about who I am NOT willing to be and/or to act like (and not who I’m willing to…). From all the available options and resources,our true self, primed by experiences & hormones etc

Philosopher Slavoj Žižek on why searching for your "true self" is a mistake: Žižek argues that the pursuit of a true inner self is ultimately misguided. Deep introspection, he suggests, often reveals only disturbing or chaotic fantasies. "Don't look for your inner self. You'll only find deep shit." Instead of searching for an authentic core, Žižek believes genuine personal growth comes from embracing an external mask, a chosen social role. "The only way to overcome yourself is to identify with your mask." To illustrate this, he references the 1960 Rossellini film General Della Rovere. The film tells the story of a poor man in occupied Italy who is caught by the Nazis. Because he resembles a famous resistance leader, General Della Rovere, the Nazis, who have already killed the real General, force him to pretend to be the General in prison to trick the resistance. But something unexpected happens. The man identifies so deeply with the role that he refuses to cooperate with the Nazis. He is ultimately shot publicly as General Della Rovere. Žižek calls this "good alienation." The man's "real self" as a poor beggar mattered less than his complete identification with the heroic persona. Through that total commitment to an outward role, he achieved a kind of moral greatness his "authentic" self never could. The takeaway is counterintuitive but powerful: true freedom doesn't emerge from endlessly excavating your private, internal world. It emerges when you prioritise your outward actions and commitments. When you fully commit to becoming something greater than what you started as. What matters is what you choose to embody.