
ShaunC bets
2K posts

ShaunC bets
@scbets98
Sharing stat based bets and bets that represent good value to me, P/L attached in my bio 📈 18.5% over 1210 bets 💰


The Economist has a great piece on strategy sportsbetting apps use to throttle smart bettors: ▫️Skilled players are “sharps” and given “stake restrictions” if they play too well (bets are capped). ▫️Rest of players called “Square”. ▫️In 2025, 4.3% of active UK accounts had a “stake factor” below the maximum bet allowance of 100%. ▫️Sportsbook will take bets with a profit margin as low as 4.5%. ▫️If they are able to do good “player-profiling” and keep the “sharps” from playing, the profit margin can reach 10-20%. ▫️As important as keeping out “sharps” is hooking “whales”, the deep-pocketed players that are willing to keep playing (and losing) large sums. ▫️Some “whales” are actually “sharps” in disguise, though. They’ll lose a bunch of bets to lull the sportsbook then put down a massive bet when they have an edge. ▫️While there is a risk of a “whale” being a “sharp”, the value of a real “whale” is so high that sportsbook will take the risk ▫️“In March 2024 PointsBet, raised its share of online sports-gambling revenue in New Jersey from 11% to 24% after wooing a single cash-spouting customer away from DraftKings.” (I can confirm that this wasn’t me). ▫️How sportsbook profile players: > Playing on Mobile is a good sign (where majority of people play) > Playing on PCs is a bad sign (it’s easier to compare odds and run models) > E-wallets are a red flag (sportsbooks prefer debit direct deposit that can attach a player to a single account; e-wallet is more anonymized and players can move cash between sportsbook more quickly to shop for the best odds) > Women bettors are a red flag (most bettors are men and “sharps” often use women to place bets) ▫️First wagers are a major tells (typical bettors go after top leagues — NFL, NBA, EPL — and do so near the start of the game). ▫️Popular bets for “squares”: who will win, scoring margins and how star player will perform (also, they love multi-leg parlays). ▫️“Sharps” go after less popular leagues and place bets as soon as odds are published, when they are most mispriced. They also go after less popular bets such as “pts in Q3” or stats from a random player (“Sharps” rarely do parlays and don’t withdrawal winnings often). ▫️One gambling consultant tells The Economist that “By the time a customer places his first bet, [sportsbooks] are 80-90% certain they know the lifetime value of the account.” ▫️”Sportsbooks look at a player’s ‘closing-line value’ — a measure that compares the odds at which he bets with those available right before a match begins. If it is consistently ahead of the market over his first ten wagers, he is highly likely to beat the book in the long run.” ▫️Sportsbook mathematically monitor players and creates a new risk score every 6-8 hours (risk score = estimate of probability that customers will wind up unprofitable). ▫️E-wallet users, women and bets over $100 are flagged. These suspicious bettors are given 30% of maximum bet (and proven sharps only allowed 1%). ▫️High-skilled players will often get a “beard” to bet on their behalf. Most sportsbooks ban this practice but it is widespread. ▫️Safest “beards” are close friends and relatives because you can mostly rely on them to pay out any winnings. The “beards” try to look like degens (playing at 3am, bet non-stop and doing ridiculous parlays) before placing a winning bet. ▫️The most effective strategy for “sharps” is “whale-flipping”. Find a losing gambler, then ask to put a (likely) large winning bet amongst their pool of guaranteed losers. ▫️Once “sharps” max out the people they can use as “beards”, they tap professional networks called “movers”. These “movers” employ a bunch of “mules” who can put down bets on the behalf of the network. Low-end movers charge 10-20% while high-end movers charge 50% of winnings. *** Lots other great details here: economist.com/christmas-spec…









2 bets that members have took for tonights premier league clash, dropped within 10 minutes but within the min odds suggested so tracked as in the screenshots 👍 Will try to get more free bets out going forward. Possibly opening a few spaces next week so the link to the waiting list is below 👇 t.me/+ZYhZOnfKqC80Y… Both bets are from bet365 1.5u @ 2.0 (min 1.8) - Under 11.5 West Ham goal kicks, Under 8.5 Chelsea shots on target and over 9.5 West Ham frees. 0.25u @ 5.5 (min 4.5) - Over 13.5 West Ham free kicks, Bowen 2 shots and JWP 1+ tackle. Reasoning ⬇️ Basic solid stats based bet-builder here, nothing fancy here looking to build some momentum here with these stat based BBs, key reasonings for each angle in the main bet. Under 11.5 West Ham goal kicks 👇 Probably a slight market over- reaction to West Hams opening day defeat at stadium of light here. West Ham arnt a pretty watch under Graham potter, games are rarely hectic and he sets them up conservative from the off. West Ham average 7.11 goal kicks at home while going under this line in 8 out of 9 home games while potter has been in charge, away from home is quite similar averaging 8.0 goal kicks while going under this line in 10 out of 11 away games thus meaning it’s won in 18 out of 20 total games under potter. Chelsea are heavily possession based under maresca resulting in home opposition averaging 7.47 goal kicks throughout all 19 away games in the premier league last season with the line winning in 16 out of 19 away games. I do think Chelsea are too much for West Ham tonight but feel the line is just a few GKs too high. West Ham frees 👇 I think there’s potential in some higher lines here tonight, last season Chelsea opponents averaged 13.05 frees per game in the premier league. With Oliver at the whistle tonight we are getting the 2nd highest ref for fouls that has reffed 20+ games in the premier league last season. An impressive 23.15 fouls per game which only Rob Jones could do better. Chelsea opponents have had over 9.5 frees in 34 out of 38 premier league games last season, West Ham have had over 9.5 free kicks in 14 out of 19 premier league games under potter with this line landing in all of last 11 h2h, with West Hams horrific performance vs Sunderland I’m expecting a big reaction tonight at home to fellow Londoners here, with the crowd on there side then we could get get plenty of fouls in a game here that could be the catalyst in how West Hams season will fair. Chelsea under 8.5 shots on target 👇 In West Hams 20 competitive games under potter, only 1 team has hit over 8.5 shots on target which was Brighton hitting 16 shots with 9 on target, I can’t see Chelsea with this sort of efficiency tonight and if they do I hold my hands up fair play. Chelsea last season hit under 8.5 SOTs in 18 out of 19 away games. With Marescas style of play being possession based if they were to take a lead then the game could die a death as a spectacle which would suit us more for our unders angles here.
















Link live! £3.99 fee The 25/26 Serie A teams ranked 1-20, giving in-depth insight into each side. 9 bets covering both Italian leagues and the Coppa Italia🇮🇹 Huge thank you to anyone who purchases, feel free to message me on here or telegram with any questions❤️ mymembers.io/acfb-premium



🇪🇸 Mallorca vs Barcelona 🇪🇸 Both bets has been taken from bet365 1.75u @ 2.0 - Mallorca under 4.5 shots on target with Barcelona most shots, most sots and corners. 0.25u @ 10.0 -Mallorca under 2.5 shots on target, under 4 corners and Barcelona over 18.5 shots. 0.1u @ 51.0 - Mega Longshot Reasoning ⬇️ A straightforward main bet on paper with treble winning Barcelona heading to palma to play a sure to be conservative approach from Mallorca, with both teams swapping out like for like in the summer I don’t see transfers having any affect on the opening matchday. Both bets won in the 2 H2H last season. Instead of boring your brains out with loads of words let’s just dive into the numbers on what makes these bets so solid. Barcelona most shots reasoning 👇 14.9 = The average amount of shots conceded by Mallorca last season per 90. The 3rd most out of all 20 teams. 17.8 = The average amount of shots that Barcelona had last season per 90. The MOST out of all 20 teams. Barcelona most shots on target reasoning 👇 6.6 = The average amount of shots that Barcelona had last season per 90. The MOST out of all 20 teams. Mallorca under 4.5 shots on target 👇 3 = The average amount of shots on target that Mallorca had per 90 last season. The 3rd lowest in the league 2.74 = The average amount of shots on target conceded by Barcelona per 90 last season. The LOWEST in the league. Barcelona most corners 👇 6.97 = The average amount of corners per 90 that Barcelona won last season. The MOST in the league. 3.81 = The average amount of corners per 90 that Mallorca won last season. The 3rd lowest in the league. 6.28 = The average amount of corners that Mallorca conceded last season. In the 2 encounters between both teams last season, the stats were : Shots : FCB 40 - 4 RCD SOTs : FCB 12 - 0 RCD Corners : FCB 13 - 2 RCD Match played in Mallorca 👇 Shots : RCD 6 - 20 FCB SOTs : RCD 1 - 9 FCB Corners : RCD 2 - 5 FCB









