ShaunC bets

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ShaunC bets

@scbets98

Sharing stat based bets and bets that represent good value to me, P/L attached in my bio 📈 18.5% over 1210 bets 💰

Ireland Katılım Şubat 2023
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ShaunC bets
ShaunC bets@scbets98·
@realganjahboyy Been away from the game for a while brother, might make a return some day, who knows 😆
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ShaunC bets@scbets98·
Brilliant article giving an insight into the difficulties us bettors face of constantly finding an edge and being restricted/limited for it. Well worth the few minutes to read to see the prospective from the bookmakers side 😀
Trung Phan@TrungTPhan

The Economist has a great piece on strategy sportsbetting apps use to throttle smart bettors: ▫️Skilled players are “sharps” and given “stake restrictions” if they play too well (bets are capped). ▫️Rest of players called “Square”. ▫️In 2025, 4.3% of active UK accounts had a “stake factor” below the maximum bet allowance of 100%. ▫️Sportsbook will take bets with a profit margin as low as 4.5%. ▫️If they are able to do good “player-profiling” and keep the “sharps” from playing, the profit margin can reach 10-20%. ▫️As important as keeping out “sharps” is hooking “whales”, the deep-pocketed players that are willing to keep playing (and losing) large sums. ▫️Some “whales” are actually “sharps” in disguise, though. They’ll lose a bunch of bets to lull the sportsbook then put down a massive bet when they have an edge. ▫️While there is a risk of a “whale” being a “sharp”, the value of a real “whale” is so high that sportsbook will take the risk ▫️“In March 2024 PointsBet, raised its share of online sports-gambling revenue in New Jersey from 11% to 24% after wooing a single cash-spouting customer away from DraftKings.” (I can confirm that this wasn’t me). ▫️How sportsbook profile players: > Playing on Mobile is a good sign (where majority of people play) > Playing on PCs is a bad sign (it’s easier to compare odds and run models) > E-wallets are a red flag (sportsbooks prefer debit direct deposit that can attach a player to a single account; e-wallet is more anonymized and players can move cash between sportsbook more quickly to shop for the best odds) > Women bettors are a red flag (most bettors are men and “sharps” often use women to place bets) ▫️First wagers are a major tells (typical bettors go after top leagues — NFL, NBA, EPL — and do so near the start of the game). ▫️Popular bets for “squares”: who will win, scoring margins and how star player will perform (also, they love multi-leg parlays). ▫️“Sharps” go after less popular leagues and place bets as soon as odds are published, when they are most mispriced. They also go after less popular bets such as “pts in Q3” or stats from a random player (“Sharps” rarely do parlays and don’t withdrawal winnings often). ▫️One gambling consultant tells The Economist that “By the time a customer places his first bet, [sportsbooks] are 80-90% certain they know the lifetime value of the account.” ▫️”Sportsbooks look at a player’s ‘closing-line value’ — a measure that compares the odds at which he bets with those available right before a match begins. If it is consistently ahead of the market over his first ten wagers, he is highly likely to beat the book in the long run.” ▫️Sportsbook mathematically monitor players and creates a new risk score every 6-8 hours (risk score = estimate of probability that customers will wind up unprofitable). ▫️E-wallet users, women and bets over $100 are flagged. These suspicious bettors are given 30% of maximum bet (and proven sharps only allowed 1%). ▫️High-skilled players will often get a “beard” to bet on their behalf. Most sportsbooks ban this practice but it is widespread. ▫️Safest “beards” are close friends and relatives because you can mostly rely on them to pay out any winnings. The “beards” try to look like degens (playing at 3am, bet non-stop and doing ridiculous parlays) before placing a winning bet. ▫️The most effective strategy for “sharps” is “whale-flipping”. Find a losing gambler, then ask to put a (likely) large winning bet amongst their pool of guaranteed losers. ▫️Once “sharps” max out the people they can use as “beards”, they tap professional networks called “movers”. These “movers” employ a bunch of “mules” who can put down bets on the behalf of the network. Low-end movers charge 10-20% while high-end movers charge 50% of winnings. *** Lots other great details here: economist.com/christmas-spec…

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ShaunC bets
ShaunC bets@scbets98·
Service update : Hi all, it may come as a shock to most of you but I’ve made the decision to finish the vip effective immediately. I’ve issued refunds to everyone so expect it to hit your bank in the next few days therefore it will have been a completely free service over the past 3 weeks on telegram and overall will be over 1280 free tips with 217u profit and 17.4% ROI based of 27 tracked months. Something I’m incredibly proud off. Overall I’ve always loved tipping on X as it was a free rein for me, could post when it suited me with many work commitments and attack angles that I thought held value. I’ve never had any intentions about going behind a paywall until the start of this season where I felt like a lot of my niche angles from less popular leagues would have many eyes on them thus losing the angle for future weeks. Literally just to protect my angles for future use. With the way bet365 (major bookmaker for my style of bets in niche leagues) liquidity has went from the start of the season prices are going regardless. Add into the factor added stress trying to increase output while juggling work commitments and family life to try offer the service I felt was warranted for £20 a month then I really feel it’s not something I want to pursue going forward. Yes I could easily keep grinding it out month by month and accept a low ROI given prices dropping by 10/20% instantly nowadays but it’s just something I really don’t want to commit to as the whole motto behind my channel from the beginning in June 2023 was to find value where others may not have seen or missed. I had many plans in place for the coming weeks/months to make this service as good as any but have put all plans to a halt obviously. It’s been a hell of a ride these past 2 years with 24 out of 27 months in profit then I’d like to think plenty have benefited from my page. As of now there will be no more tips for the foreseeable future, I may return on X at some stage but won’t be in the near future. Any issues regarding refunds (please allow 5-10 days) then you can contact me directly on X or telegram and I can check it out. Thanks all for the support down the years been very much appreciated ❤️
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ShaunC bets@scbets98·
Prices have dropped since the premium group has took but still solid enough given the stats to support the bets. 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England vs Andorra 🇦🇩 TRACKED BETS : 1.5u @ 1.8 - Under 3.5 England offsides, Under 15.5 Andorra tackles and over 13.5 England throws and under 16 England corners *If main bet falls below odds of 1.72 then add under 16 England corners as shown in 2nd screenshot and will track the odds on that after 10 mins * 0.25u @ 4.5 - Over 16.5 England throws, Under 13.5 Andorra tackles, Under 2.5 England offsides and Andorra under 1 goal Reasoning ⬇️ Very straightforward (never is) bet-builder here that’s statistically as solid as you can get while the match should be played to suit it. Expect England to dominate from the start here where we should see Andorra camped in there box, these ultra low blocks usually mean less tackles and offsides. England have had under 3.5 offsides in 36 out of there last 37 competitive games. Meanwhile Andorra opposition have went under 3.5 offsides in 26 out of last 27 competitive games. With the low block as already mentioned and how passive I assume England will be here then I don’t see many occasions where we get a defence splitting pass in behind which helps us. Tackles are of a similar nature, the Andorran bus parked up in the 18 yard box shouldn’t lead to many duels and given the standard of this English team then they won’t get drawn into dribbling the ball into trouble. Moldova has went under 15.5 tackles in 30 of their last 33 competitive games, only going over this line against Moldova(154th), Latvia (137th) and San Marino (210th). As the fifa rankings show, given the major gulf in class here should see them not engaging in tackling opponents but more concerned with team shape as they look to keep the score down. Lastly onto the England throws. Andorra concede and absurd amount of throws away from home with 39 out of the last 40 competitive games having there opponents go over this line while England have went over 13.5 throws in 19 out of last 20 home games. On the corners add on if needed (likely) the last time England went over this line was 9th of October 2014, over 10 years ago. While Andorra opponents have went under this line in 79 out of the last 80 competitive matches.
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ShaunC bets@scbets98·
August P/L ⬇️ Bets : 86 ✍️ Profit : 5.84u 💰 ROI : 8.64% 📈 Summary ⬇️ Always good to see a month ending in profit when going through a real poor run of variance, long term will always come out in profit as the P/L shows so we have just got to stick to the staking plan. With the poor liquidity on markets atm across Bet365/flutter odds slashing in minutes then I’ve had to adapt minimum odds etc which has clearly cost us a few more units but adapting is what it’s all about to provide a fully transparent service to subscribers. Will be announcing some exciting news over the next few weeks so keep an eye out on the page 👀 🔜
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ShaunC bets@scbets98·
Main bet a winner here ✅
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ShaunC bets@scbets98

2 bets that members have took for tonights premier league clash, dropped within 10 minutes but within the min odds suggested so tracked as in the screenshots 👍 Will try to get more free bets out going forward. Possibly opening a few spaces next week so the link to the waiting list is below 👇 t.me/+ZYhZOnfKqC80Y… Both bets are from bet365 1.5u @ 2.0 (min 1.8) - Under 11.5 West Ham goal kicks, Under 8.5 Chelsea shots on target and over 9.5 West Ham frees. 0.25u @ 5.5 (min 4.5) - Over 13.5 West Ham free kicks, Bowen 2 shots and JWP 1+ tackle. Reasoning ⬇️ Basic solid stats based bet-builder here, nothing fancy here looking to build some momentum here with these stat based BBs, key reasonings for each angle in the main bet. Under 11.5 West Ham goal kicks 👇 Probably a slight market over- reaction to West Hams opening day defeat at stadium of light here. West Ham arnt a pretty watch under Graham potter, games are rarely hectic and he sets them up conservative from the off. West Ham average 7.11 goal kicks at home while going under this line in 8 out of 9 home games while potter has been in charge, away from home is quite similar averaging 8.0 goal kicks while going under this line in 10 out of 11 away games thus meaning it’s won in 18 out of 20 total games under potter. Chelsea are heavily possession based under maresca resulting in home opposition averaging 7.47 goal kicks throughout all 19 away games in the premier league last season with the line winning in 16 out of 19 away games. I do think Chelsea are too much for West Ham tonight but feel the line is just a few GKs too high. West Ham frees 👇 I think there’s potential in some higher lines here tonight, last season Chelsea opponents averaged 13.05 frees per game in the premier league. With Oliver at the whistle tonight we are getting the 2nd highest ref for fouls that has reffed 20+ games in the premier league last season. An impressive 23.15 fouls per game which only Rob Jones could do better. Chelsea opponents have had over 9.5 frees in 34 out of 38 premier league games last season, West Ham have had over 9.5 free kicks in 14 out of 19 premier league games under potter with this line landing in all of last 11 h2h, with West Hams horrific performance vs Sunderland I’m expecting a big reaction tonight at home to fellow Londoners here, with the crowd on there side then we could get get plenty of fouls in a game here that could be the catalyst in how West Hams season will fair. Chelsea under 8.5 shots on target 👇 In West Hams 20 competitive games under potter, only 1 team has hit over 8.5 shots on target which was Brighton hitting 16 shots with 9 on target, I can’t see Chelsea with this sort of efficiency tonight and if they do I hold my hands up fair play. Chelsea last season hit under 8.5 SOTs in 18 out of 19 away games. With Marescas style of play being possession based if they were to take a lead then the game could die a death as a spectacle which would suit us more for our unders angles here.

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ShaunC bets
ShaunC bets@scbets98·
2 bets that members have took for tonights premier league clash, dropped within 10 minutes but within the min odds suggested so tracked as in the screenshots 👍 Will try to get more free bets out going forward. Possibly opening a few spaces next week so the link to the waiting list is below 👇 t.me/+ZYhZOnfKqC80Y… Both bets are from bet365 1.5u @ 2.0 (min 1.8) - Under 11.5 West Ham goal kicks, Under 8.5 Chelsea shots on target and over 9.5 West Ham frees. 0.25u @ 5.5 (min 4.5) - Over 13.5 West Ham free kicks, Bowen 2 shots and JWP 1+ tackle. Reasoning ⬇️ Basic solid stats based bet-builder here, nothing fancy here looking to build some momentum here with these stat based BBs, key reasonings for each angle in the main bet. Under 11.5 West Ham goal kicks 👇 Probably a slight market over- reaction to West Hams opening day defeat at stadium of light here. West Ham arnt a pretty watch under Graham potter, games are rarely hectic and he sets them up conservative from the off. West Ham average 7.11 goal kicks at home while going under this line in 8 out of 9 home games while potter has been in charge, away from home is quite similar averaging 8.0 goal kicks while going under this line in 10 out of 11 away games thus meaning it’s won in 18 out of 20 total games under potter. Chelsea are heavily possession based under maresca resulting in home opposition averaging 7.47 goal kicks throughout all 19 away games in the premier league last season with the line winning in 16 out of 19 away games. I do think Chelsea are too much for West Ham tonight but feel the line is just a few GKs too high. West Ham frees 👇 I think there’s potential in some higher lines here tonight, last season Chelsea opponents averaged 13.05 frees per game in the premier league. With Oliver at the whistle tonight we are getting the 2nd highest ref for fouls that has reffed 20+ games in the premier league last season. An impressive 23.15 fouls per game which only Rob Jones could do better. Chelsea opponents have had over 9.5 frees in 34 out of 38 premier league games last season, West Ham have had over 9.5 free kicks in 14 out of 19 premier league games under potter with this line landing in all of last 11 h2h, with West Hams horrific performance vs Sunderland I’m expecting a big reaction tonight at home to fellow Londoners here, with the crowd on there side then we could get get plenty of fouls in a game here that could be the catalyst in how West Hams season will fair. Chelsea under 8.5 shots on target 👇 In West Hams 20 competitive games under potter, only 1 team has hit over 8.5 shots on target which was Brighton hitting 16 shots with 9 on target, I can’t see Chelsea with this sort of efficiency tonight and if they do I hold my hands up fair play. Chelsea last season hit under 8.5 SOTs in 18 out of 19 away games. With Marescas style of play being possession based if they were to take a lead then the game could die a death as a spectacle which would suit us more for our unders angles here.
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ShaunC bets@scbets98·
I have attached a waiting list/free bets telegram channel below just for when spaces become available in the VIP channel. Will try my best to give a fair share of free bets but full priority will be on vip members for the foreseeable future. Thanks all for the support so far it’s very much appreciated and not took for granted ❤️🫡 t.me/+ZYhZOnfKqC80Y…
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ShaunC bets@scbets98·
Spaces have quickly filled, didn’t expect them to go that fast ❤️ I’ll be sorting everyone out that’s paid and not in the group over the next few hours, just getting caught up on admin stuff here 👍 I’ll release more spots throughout the week 🫡 Anyone with issues and can’t DM me, reply underneath here and I’ll reach out to you 👇
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ShaunC bets@scbets98·
I have attached the link below for my premium channel, DM me if there is any issues and I’ll try my best to get you sorted ASAP🙏 Thanks for all the support and well wishes, its very much appreciated ❤️ mymembers.io/shaunc-premium…
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ShaunC bets@scbets98·
I will be opening spaces into my premium channel this evening at 6pm GMT through the @mymembersio website. A few reasons on why the channel might be for you before joining : - In-depth reasoning on every tip - All tips posted within 24 hours of kick off with the large majority tipped upon lineups released - Optimising betting accounts : my careful and strategic approach to putting out tips prioritising subscribers account health. - A trusted tipster with 24 out of 27 months profit on all free tracked tips on Twitter/X. With the goalposts shifting in many ways throughout the years still finding ways to maintain solid profit. - Insight into angles that might not have been strong enough to tip officially but could be included in your own long-shot bet-builders. - Monthly giveaways. I’ll still try my best to give free bets on X but ultimately will be prioritising the premium group going forward 🤝 Screenshot 1 is last 3 months P/L. Screenshot 2 is all time stats P/L.
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ShaunC bets@scbets98·
Will be spread across bet365 and all the flutter owned companies (Skybet/Paddy power/Betfair). I know that bet365 liquidity has been a nightmare recently but with my style of tipping I have found the majority of tips I put out of X here have held for a while with 1 exemption being the Valencia game at the weekend, if prices go instantly I’ll have angles on standby to help the original tip get back up the price I would deem suitable 👍🫡
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Yanited
Yanited@YanitedGG·
@scbets98 @mymembersio Mate would most of your bets be on 365 would u say? Struggling a lot with them recently, idk what’s going on with them
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ShaunC bets@scbets98·
I’d heavily recommended purchasing this in-depth write up from @ACFootballBets for a price of a pint, gets you caught up on all things Serie A with a few mega value bets thrown into the mix, what’s not to like 👏 👏
ACFB@ACFootballBets

Link live! £3.99 fee The 25/26 Serie A teams ranked 1-20, giving in-depth insight into each side. 9 bets covering both Italian leagues and the Coppa Italia🇮🇹 Huge thank you to anyone who purchases, feel free to message me on here or telegram with any questions❤️ mymembers.io/acfb-premium

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ShaunC bets@scbets98·
2.0 and 10.0 winners ✅🤑 Wasn’t far away from the mega odds longshot but great winners here regardless 😍 Leave a ❤️ if you tailed them and don’t be afraid to drop a slip, as always all interactions very much appreciated and definitely not took for granted 🤝🫡
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ShaunC bets@scbets98

🇪🇸 Mallorca vs Barcelona 🇪🇸 Both bets has been taken from bet365 1.75u @ 2.0 - Mallorca under 4.5 shots on target with Barcelona most shots, most sots and corners. 0.25u @ 10.0 -Mallorca under 2.5 shots on target, under 4 corners and Barcelona over 18.5 shots. 0.1u @ 51.0 - Mega Longshot Reasoning ⬇️ A straightforward main bet on paper with treble winning Barcelona heading to palma to play a sure to be conservative approach from Mallorca, with both teams swapping out like for like in the summer I don’t see transfers having any affect on the opening matchday. Both bets won in the 2 H2H last season. Instead of boring your brains out with loads of words let’s just dive into the numbers on what makes these bets so solid. Barcelona most shots reasoning 👇 14.9 = The average amount of shots conceded by Mallorca last season per 90. The 3rd most out of all 20 teams. 17.8 = The average amount of shots that Barcelona had last season per 90. The MOST out of all 20 teams. Barcelona most shots on target reasoning 👇 6.6 = The average amount of shots that Barcelona had last season per 90. The MOST out of all 20 teams. Mallorca under 4.5 shots on target 👇 3 = The average amount of shots on target that Mallorca had per 90 last season. The 3rd lowest in the league 2.74 = The average amount of shots on target conceded by Barcelona per 90 last season. The LOWEST in the league. Barcelona most corners 👇 6.97 = The average amount of corners per 90 that Barcelona won last season. The MOST in the league. 3.81 = The average amount of corners per 90 that Mallorca won last season. The 3rd lowest in the league. 6.28 = The average amount of corners that Mallorca conceded last season. In the 2 encounters between both teams last season, the stats were : Shots : FCB 40 - 4 RCD SOTs : FCB 12 - 0 RCD Corners : FCB 13 - 2 RCD Match played in Mallorca 👇 Shots : RCD 6 - 20 FCB SOTs : RCD 1 - 9 FCB Corners : RCD 2 - 5 FCB

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ShaunC bets@scbets98·
@RickDhesi @ThruxBets Yeah mate bet365 gone to the dogs make no mistake about it, but behind a capped group I’d like to think I can continue to adapt like I have done so far whilst providing consistent profit 🫡👍
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Rikki Dhesi
Rikki Dhesi@RickDhesi·
@scbets98 @ThruxBets You’ll find exactly the same issues with a VIP. Prices have gone to shit on 365 mate
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ShaunC bets@scbets98·
🇪🇸 Valencia v Real Sociedad 🇪🇸 All bets are from bet365 1.5u @ 1.8 - Duro to commit 1+ foul and Mendez 1+ tackle 0.25u @ 6.0 - Duro to commit 2+ fouls and Mendez 2+ tackles 0.1u @ 71.0 - Longshot banker Reasoning ⬇️ Hopefully we get a full 90 minutes here of 11 v 11, this opening match week of La liga has been a minefield. 2 well matched teams on paper should see a tight contest from the beginning. Duro averaging 1.57 fouls per 90 last season, we should see him play up top here, with raba naturally drifting more out the right then I can see duro occupy more of the left side which should hopefully lead to duels with arambaru who’s averaging 2.04 fouls won per 90 last season. Duro fouls committed including super sub : 1,2,2,1,3,6,3,5,0,1,2,1,1,4,0,0,1,0,5,2,4,2,1,1,3,1 1+ foul in 22 out of last 26 starts Onto Mendez who will have to get through a mountain of work in midfield now the vital cog that was Zubimendi has finally left for pastures new, I expect the midfield to be more exposed here which should lead to more tackles from Mendez. Mendez averaging 1.64 tackles per 90 with the following record including super sub : 2,1,3,1,3,0,3,1,2,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,2,3,2,5,2,2,1,0,1,1,1,3,3 1+ tackle in 27 out of last 29 starts.
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