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scrooge
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@EGirlsAreFeds yeah europes pnly good in summer. vibes shifting when the sun is out
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Trigger warning: long post
I traded perps well during the 7 month chop and put all profit into spot BTC. Throughout this whole year and previous years I tried to learn more about the macro, political and regulatory landscape for crypto. As the election drew closer and Trump started positioning himself as the pro crypto president, I became increasingly confident that the election was monumentally important for the price and future of our coins. I believed the election outcome was binary, Kamala wins prices down bad and Trump wins prices up huge. So I tried to learn as much as possible about the US election, polling, betting markets etc.
It seemed to me betting markets were far more reliable and polling was consistently unreliable and had a bias skewed against Trump historically. As the betting markets like Polymarket favoured Trump 60/40 and the polls were 50/50, I decided the goal was to try be as long as much BTC as possible in the event of a Trump win. I did not believe the FUD that Polymarket was unreliable or biased, billions of $ were being wagered and smart players would bet Kamala back to 50/50 if those were the true odds as the polls said. The trump trades in the stock and bond markets also reflected that billions were being wagered on a Trump win. Tech CEO's with vast data sets like Zuckerburg and Bezos both started slow pivots away from Kamala towards Trump.
On Saturday 2nd November I was given a gift by the markets, the Ann Selzer poll was released. She is considered one of the best pollsters in the country and her poll had Kamala winning by a huge margin. On seeing the poll I saw that Polymarket immediately knee-jerk pumped Kamala's odds by 10% or so and yet confusingly, crypto was flat. I shorted ETH (my preferred liquid short for majority of the year) on seeing this and it took a few hours before panic set in and crypto prices dumped. Unfortunately for the ETFs they had to wait until Monday to sell and on Monday they capitulated hard. They were panic dumping into the US close on Monday and seeing as I do not much weight in the polls at all (only believe that others mistakenly do) I closed my ETH short and started longing BTC from the low 67k's ETF capitulation. From there prices rallied to around $69k+ which put my BTC long in a nice comfortable profit heading into election day.
A friend I had met through crypto offered to let me into his voice call group of pro election betters and analysts on election day. These guys knew the importance of every single voter demographic in each county in each state. As the early votes and demographic data came in the group were shocked at how bullish all the early data was swinging towards Trump and the Polymarket odds started climbing slowly as more data came in. I increased the size of my long as both Polymarket odds increased and the election betting group became more and more confident. As my entry started from the Ann Selzer dip I had quite a bit of buffer giving me confidence that if things turned sour and Kamala won I would be able to exit either in tiny profit or a manageable loss. In the end my spot portfolio was 100% allocated to BTC and my perp position was 1.5x the size of that on top from around $70-71k average, the most levered long position I have ever taken in $ terms. Polymarket was around 72% Trump by the time I was fully sized. I did not take any profit until $90k+ and have since re-longed BTC many times in smaller size with latest exit around $106k.
Game@game_for_one
What was your best trade of 2024 in terms of realized PnL? And why do you think it worked so well?
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𝟏𝟎𝟎𝐤 𝐭𝐨 𝟏𝐦 𝐜𝐡𝐚𝐥𝐥𝐞𝐧𝐠𝐞
swapped 20252 $HYPE for 597267 $USDC
price at time of selling: 28.28$
total in: 265000$
total out: 597267$
PnL: +332267$ (+125.38%)
still giga bullish HL longterm. but i think a change of hands is near.
swapped 3140556 $TANK for 77927 $USDC
mc at time of selling: 28m $
total in: 55041$
total out: 77297$
PnL: +22256$ (+40.44%)
execution on this one could have been better. lessons learned.
𝐡𝐨𝐥𝐝𝐢𝐧𝐠𝐬:
875194 USDC
274298 ZEREBRO
𝐩𝐫𝐨𝐠𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐛𝐚𝐫 (𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐥𝐢𝐳𝐞𝐝):
▮▮▮▮▮▮▮▮▮▮▮▮▮▮▮▮▮▯▯▯ 87.51%
𝐩𝐫𝐨𝐠𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐛𝐚𝐫 (𝐢𝐧𝐜𝐥𝐮𝐝𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐮𝐏𝐧𝐋):
▮▮▮▮▮▮▮▮▮▮▮▮▮▮▮▮▮▮▮▯ 97.7%
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@agent_test1337 how do you see the likelihood for rare high price art collections like the top artblocks to ever become center of attention again like last cycle?
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@cyberprince_rwo I can recommend tai chi for musculoskeletal stuff, or if you dont want to get into it, I know some out of this world healers in asia can dm if you want
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@cyberprince_rwo you can do this brother 🙏 soon this plant will stop the grip on your mind
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@FR0STY_333 @xbtLana yeah just go austria or switzerland, original skiing vibe
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