@EastVanBuilder Appreciate the concrete numbers in your article!
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Samuel Johnson
2.4K posts
Samuel Johnson
@sdnjohnson
Fisheries science/management, former pure math guy. Husband, father, cyclist, mountain enthusiast, gamer. He/him/beardo. Views/swears my own.
New West (unceded Qayqayt FN) Katılım Temmuz 2014
531 Takip Edilen269 Takipçiler
@EastVanBuilder Yeah, that’s worth talking to an accountant about. And I’m not a business, so a smaller profit margin at 1-n years’ salary is probably acceptable. Motivating to explore this further
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Vancouver's Multiplex Math
Recently, Vancouver changed its zoning rules to allow single family homes to be replaced with 4-6 unit multiplexes.
Does it make economic sense?
Find out:
barzelai.ca/blog-1/f/vanco…
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Samuel Johnson retweetledi
Can we get 500 retweets as soon as possible on this new ad completely humiliating Donald Trump
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@wwwTRYEVENTSca what’s the response to this weekend’s weather for the rubber ducky?
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Trauma? What trauma?
Check out Publish or Perish: A Humorous Party Game about Academia by Max Hui Bai Ph.D. on @Kickstarter kickstarter.com/projects/maxhu…
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@MASpence86 @ICES_ASC Great! I’ve done some work looking at this for MS fisheries with technical interactions (mixed species fisheries, lots of byproduct and bycatch). We found that simultaneously avoiding limits is pretty easy (reduce effort!) but meeting targets simultaneously is tricky
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@sdnjohnson @ICES_ASC Blim is also calculated by ICES on a stock by stock basis. For category 1 stocks, which we look at, ICES determine Blim by looking at the SRR in the assessment and deciding which of 6 types each stock. They have rules for each of the 6 types. See ices-library.figshare.com/articles/repor…
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As changing stock sizes will cause changes to predator prey dynamics we ask:
Can we simultaneously adopt the precautionary approach for multiple stocks in the North Sea?
I'll be presenting this next Monday at @ICES_ASC
sciencedirect.com/science/articl…
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@MASpence86 @ICES_ASC Right, so there’s your objective, but what’s Blim? Is it 40% of SS Bmsy? Maybe that’s the wrong objective
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@sdnjohnson @ICES_ASC ICES define the precautionary approach by looking at the long-term SSB. If the probability that the long-term SSB of an individual stock is below its Blim is less than 0.05 then the precautionary approach is being followed.
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@NateSilver538 So the result is a compromise between the data and the prior? Huh, whattaya know
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Harris is up ~3.5 points right now. In 2016/2020, the GOP Electoral College edge was about 3.5 points. The model thinks it's likely smaller this year. OTOH it thinks her numbers will fall a bit between the convention bounce adjustment and reversion to its prior. Hence, toss-up.
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Thread of random bird names. I'll start.
Sandwich Tern
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I run 5 to 10 kilometres everyday, but today I ran 20 kilometres. My legs are feeling happy. Who else is running this summer? 🏃🏻
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@TrevorABranch @SolomonKurz For a density I feel as though I just learned the rhs is better, too. This is a cool vis of uncertainty in something like beta pars
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@SolomonKurz I would have thought the left one, but now I am wondering if the right is the "correct" way of representing the posterior. I actually prefer a third type of figure: median + shaded zone for 95% + sample (10-50) of posterior draws like the faint lines on the left
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2 ways of showing Bayesian uncertainty. Left is the posterior distribution with the mean line in bold, and the thinner lines 100 random HMC draws. The right is the same, but with semitransparent fill for each of the 100 draws.
Thoughts?
[#sec-Beta-binomial" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">solomon.quarto.pub/sr2rstan/12.ht…]
#RStats
#rstan
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The kids aren't alright, indeed. Canada's young families losing real income in double digits
castanet.net/news/Canada/50…
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Thinking about how I’m going to hand off a project to a client.
Toying with the idea of packaging everything up with a docker file that will launch rstudio in browser with everything installed with renv
On second thought, maybe an email and a .zip is all we need
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Even though I'm posting this to get a 35% off coupon, I cant avoid saying it's freaking cool: lo.cafe/notchnook
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I'm gonna buy a mouse jiggler because for the life of me I can't get mac OS to just not shut down for 8 hours while I run models
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