seb web

@MarkMaddenX He would fit in well with your victims wouldn’t he

When do we just admit Tiger Woods is a scumbag?

@iam_sijo99 Wentworth prison

TV series that was Good from start to finish 🔥 1. Prison Break (2005) 2. The Wire (2002) 3. Dark (2017) 4.Fleabag (2016) 5. Better Call Saul (2015) 6. Breaking Bad (2008) 7....Show more

@RB61077 @NewsMurray Cabbage

Sky TV has been given the go-ahead to obtain personal bank details of dodgy-box users. Surely that's a breach of GDPR law?

@SJud85 @bettinggeekz Shut ya cake hole ya cabbage

@bettinggeekz Another con artist tipster that doesn’t even know what they’re talking about, 10 lengths difference? Do you know how to work lengths out? It’s 6.5 lengths difference. 🤡

I can’t wrap my head around today’s clear run 30:20 …. Two weeks ago clear run 29.67 … nearly 10 lengths difference for no apparent reason 🤷‍♂️

@everymovieplug KIN

Name a cancelled tv show that deserves another season.

@liamgallagher Afternoon champ

RASTAS

@_JIBBER_JABBER_ You’ve got too much time on your hands

Some thoughts on IROKO (12/1) for the Grand National… Quite a few people seem to like Iroko for this year’s Grand National and, on the face of it, I can understand why. He is only 8. He ran a very respectable race to finish fourth in last year’s National. He is trained by a yard that has clearly had this race in mind for a long time. And he has the kind of profile that makes punters think there could still be a big one in him. So I wanted to go through him properly and see whether the case for him is actually as strong as it looks. Short answer: I can absolutely see why he is popular… …but the more I look at him, the more I come back to the same conclusion: 👉 he looks much more likely to run another solid race than he does to actually win it. Let’s walk through it. 1️⃣ The basic profile Trainer: Oliver Greenall & Josh Guerriero Age: 8 Owner: JP McManus Official Rating: 156 Best recent piece of National evidence: 4th in the 2025 Grand National, beaten 7½ lengths Straight away, that gives him obvious appeal. He is the right age for the modern National. He has already shown he handles the fences. He has already shown he stays the trip. And unlike plenty in this field, there is no guesswork about whether Aintree suits him. That is the positive case in a nutshell. And it is a fair one. But there is a difference between: 👉 having a solid case to run well and 👉 having a solid case to win at the prices. That is where I think it gets more interesting. 2️⃣ Last year’s National run — solid, admirable, but perhaps slightly over-romanticised Let’s start with the obvious positive. He ran very well in the race last year. Fourth of 34, beaten 7½ lengths, first home of the British-trained runners, and he stayed on strongly from off the pace after finding himself with plenty to do. That was a good run. No question. In many ways, it was exactly the sort of run connections would have wanted from a 7-year-old having his first go at the race. He showed: - he stays - he handles the fences - he copes with the occasion - and he can still be competitive in the closing stages So I do not want to downplay that. But I do think there is a danger that people are now treating that run as if it automatically makes him the answer this year. And I am not sure it does. Because when you dig into it a little more closely, last year’s run was commendable rather than devastating. He was never really in a position where you came away thinking: 👉 “that should have been his” He stayed on well, yes. But he was also some way back turning for home, pecked at second Valentine’s, and while he finished off well enough, he still ended up beaten 7½ lengths. That is not a criticism. It is just important to be accurate. He ran a very good race. But he did not run a race that screamed he was miles ahead of his mark and desperately unlucky not to win. 3️⃣ The big trend negative — he is no longer a debutant This is one of the biggest things for me. We know that 14 of the last 16 winners were making their Grand National debut. That is not a stat I would ever treat as an absolute rule on its own, but it does matter. Why? Because the modern National is no longer the old-fashioned survival test it once was. The changes to the fences and the shape of the race now mean that classier, younger, more progressive horses can cope with it first time. That has shifted the race away from old-school “specialists” and more towards horses arriving with the right mix of class, stamina and improvement. Last year, Iroko fitted that kind of angle very nicely. This year, he does not. Now he is a horse returning for another crack, off a higher mark, having already shown his hand. So one of his biggest positives from 2025 — being an unexposed 7-year-old debutant with a touch of upside — has now gone. And I do think that matters. 4️⃣ The handicap angle — 5lb higher and probably not thrown in This is another key point. He ran off 152 in last year’s National. He comes into this year’s race off 157. That is not a wild rise, but it is enough to ask a proper question. Because if your case for him is based heavily on last year’s fourth, then you have to ask: 👉 how much better is he really off 5lb higher? That is the key issue. If you thought last year’s run was the sign of a horse still ahead of the handicapper, then maybe you can justify it. But if you think last year’s run was simply a very solid piece of placed form in a race that suited him, then 5lb higher becomes much more awkward. For me, this is where the “missed his chance” argument starts to creep in. Not because he cannot be competitive again. But because last year may have been the moment when everything aligned: - first run in the race - lower mark - right age - strong preparation - ideal long-term target Now he is back off a higher mark, trying to improve on a run that was already pretty close to his ceiling in the race. That is much harder. 5️⃣ Has he actually come here in better form than last year? For me, the answer is probably no. And this is one of the strongest parts of the case against him. Last year, he came into Aintree after a four-run campaign and had shaped very encouragingly in the Cheltenham handicap in January. That run had a slightly eye-catching feel to it. He was patiently ridden, not knocked about, and there was a sense that bigger targets still lay ahead. He looked like a horse being brought along for something. This year, I am not sure the same can be said with quite the same confidence. His season has gone: - 2nd at Haydock behind Trelawne - 1st in a 3-runner race at Ascot - 10th of 22 in the Ultima, beaten 28 lengths There are bits of encouragement in there, but it is hardly a profile that screams “coming here absolutely spot on”. And the Cheltenham run in particular was disappointing. Timeform called it “wholly unconvincing”, said his jumping lacked confidence, and noted that he was merely passing beaten horses late on. That is a long way from an ideal final prep for a race like this. Now, connections do have a possible excuse. Josh Guerriero said he came back with a slightly dirty scope and they felt he was not himself. That may well be true. But even allowing for that, the key point remains: 👉 he has not arrived here this year looking obviously better than he did twelve months ago And if he is not arriving here in better form, why exactly should we expect him to improve on last year’s fourth off a higher mark? That is the question I keep coming back to. 6️⃣ The market — very popular, but not exactly solid This is another big part of the puzzle. On Betfair, he has traded as low as 8.0 and as high as 36.0. He is now sitting around 15.5 with more than £25,000 matched. That is a very interesting market shape. Because it tells you two things: First: 👉 people are very interested in him Second: 👉 the market has not been able to hold a strong, confident position on him If a horse near the head of the market trades as low as 8.0 and then drifts back out to the mid-teens with that kind of volume matched, that is not a sign of rock-solid conviction. It suggests: - early hype - plenty of discussion - plenty of interest - but no real sustained surge of confidence To me, that fits the horse quite well. He is easy to like. He has a neat, appealing profile. But once people really dig into him, the case becomes less straightforward. 7️⃣ The stamina side — proven enough, but not necessarily a huge untapped edge This is where I think it is important to be balanced. I am not going to argue that he does not stay. He clearly does. Last year’s National run proved that well enough. The trainer also keeps pointing to him doing his best work late and wanting a proper trip. So for me, stamina is not the issue. The question is slightly different: 👉 does he have enough else, off this mark, to turn proven stamina into a winning National performance? Because these days you need more than just staying power. You need: - tactical position - rhythm - efficient jumping - enough pace not to get shuffled too far back - and still enough energy left to finish Iroko can stay, yes. But one of the things Jonjo O’Neill Jr said after last year’s race was that he found everything a bit quick early on and was a bit on his head. That is interesting. Because if a horse is already finding things a bit lively early in the race, that can leave him with a lot to do later on. And in these modern renewals, you do not want to be giving classy rivals too much rope. 8️⃣ The jumping / confidence angle This is another slight concern. Again, I do not want to overstate it. He is not an awful jumper. But there are little enough question marks there to matter in a race like this. Timeform were not happy with his jumping in the Ultima and said it lacked confidence. He fell at the first at Ascot in December 2024, admittedly through no real fault of his own. At Cheltenham in January 2025, Jonjo said he felt Iroko had lost confidence after that fall and that his jumping had suffered late on. In last year’s National he also pecked at second Valentine’s. Now, none of those things alone would put me off. But when you add them together, you do not quite get the profile of a horse I would describe as bombproof in a race where rhythm and efficiency matter so much. And again, if you are backing a horse at around 12/1 to 16/1 in the Grand National, you really want very few doubts. With him, there are just enough. 9️⃣ The big-picture view When you strip everything back, here is where I land on him. The positives are obvious: - ideal age - proven over the fences - proven stamina - strong run in the race last year - race clearly targeted again But the negatives are just as important: - no longer a debutant in a race where debutants dominate - 5lb higher than last year - not obviously coming here in better form - disappointing and unconvincing Cheltenham prep - market has cooled a fair bit from earlier prices - may simply have run his race in the National already without looking a likely winner That is why, for me, he feels like a horse who could easily run well again… …but is much harder to back as the answer. 🔟 Where I land on him I completely understand why people like him. He is one of the easiest horses in the race to make a surface-level case for. But the more I look at him, the more I think this: 👉 last year may have been his best chance to win the race That is not to say he cannot finish fourth, fifth, even second. He absolutely could. But from a betting point of view, that is not the same thing as being a good bet to win at the current odds. For me, he looks like: 👉 a very solid National horse 👉 but not necessarily a well-priced National winner Final thought If he was a bit bigger, I could understand people wanting to chance him. If he was coming here off the back of an obviously sparkling prep, I could understand people being stronger on him. But as things stand, I think you are being asked to pay a bit too much for last year’s fourth-place finish and not getting quite enough in return. He has a good chance of running his race. I’m just not convinced that means he has a good chance of winning it. To conclude: 👉 Iroko is a fair horse to respect, but a poor one to get excited about at the current odds because last year may have been his golden chance.

@Racing_Tales A plus tard

Was Gaelic Warrior the most impressive Gold Cup winner we've ever seen? Winning Gold Cups on the bridle doesnt usual happen!

@davidraya_01 Wowzers what a patronising wanchor

Head up boy , you did your best

@RollettoSport do you have any plans to improve your limits on withdrawals any time soon? The site looks good but the withdrawal limits are somewhat very average

@romfordslim1477 Cabbage of this highest order you ya muppet

Ronnie break is a 16 red clearance its not even the 1st 16 red clearance thats ever been done either Plus the pockets at this tournament are buckets Lets hope wu or trump play better v ron & ron has had only 1 player who could beat him lets hope wu or trump do better

@WWWoodzy92 He had fuckall under bonnet wtf is this post about Jesus wept cabbage

Oh dear oh dear Lorcan Williams. Another perfect example of go and win your race because anything can happen at a hurdle! I feel for backers of Came From Nowhere 😬

@joshpearson180 What a fucking halfwit

Darren is an idiot Don’t be like Darren 😂

@honeymoon250 100%

WHITE PEOPLE: Is this true ?

@147Magtr Ronnie does it every month in uk tournaments

Selby, Hawkins, Maguire, Jones... The list goes on. Pulling out of a tournament at the last minute like this is unacceptable. This lack of professionalism needs to be met with fines, not just excuses.

@racingblogger Cost of meeting seb web in benners, priceless

🚨 Total Cost of Attending the 2026 Cheltenham Festival for three days: 👇 • Tickets for three days £220 • Accommodation £1010 • Trains £100 • Taxi £140 • Food £245 • Alcohol £280 • Miscellaneous £50 • Total Cost: £2,045 What did it cost you to attend the Festival?

@CareTmRyan_Air No tar ya scamming wanker

First time flying with @Ryanair and me and 3 lads had to pay €30 to be able to get on plane home cos we didn’t have the Ryanair app on our phones to check in, I was right infront of her eyes but she couldn’t do it, plane was a right dirt box aswell, shit all over floors 1/10

@BigJohnLimit @Ryanair I’ve never flown with them

@sebweb85 @Ryanair How did you not know you need the Ryanair app it’s 2026?! 😂

@Racing_Tales Kopek de bordes is one of the best horses in training, will win champion chase next year with its tongue sticking out

Would Kopek Des Bordes have won the Arkle without the stumble after the last? 🤔