SecureZero 

Just finished a huge UPGRADE to my Polymarket Arbitrage Trading Bot 📈 $41,514 +EV - [ Right Now] ✳️ 1,032% Spread - [ Right Now] #⃣ 3X More Arbitrage Opportunities I had to break a lot of rules to get this to work, If Polymarket finds out I might be in trouble... But it was worth it! I was able to bypass the restrictions that are holding back other Arbitrage Trading Bots Here’s how it all works... MARKET MATCHING The bot is looking for arbitrages across 5 different Prediction Markets To do that we are indexing millions of individual markets To try to find the few thousand functionally identical pairs between platforms That's billions of potential matches To find the few thousand market pairs that are functionally equivalent between platforms we are using a four part matching system: 1. Keyword extraction, ranking & matching 2. Trigram, Jaccard & Vector hybrid matching algorithm of the market titles, close conditions, alternative titles & outcomes 3. LLM Prompt matching checking for functional equivalence of market rules -> Incredibly inconsistent, hence the need for part 4, building a system like this at scale will open your eyes to the shortcomings of AI 4. Human verification + 99.8% Accuracy + 6,320 Markets Matched Once we have our markets, we move onto.. ARBITRAGE DETECTION - [ UPGRADED ] To detect if there is an arbitrage we need two things Market Odds & Orderbooks Market Odds: This will show us the ‘Spread’, if the sum of Market A YES & Market B NO is less than $1, or vice versa, we have a potential arbitrage Orderbooks: This will show us the "EV", much we can arbitrage profit we can extract, according to the available liquidity and slippage of both orderbooks This is where we had been severely limited in the past, due to inadequacies of the WebSocket feeds and API rate limits Polymarket: Orderbook initial dumps & entire orderbook price levels missing when connecting hundreds of markets to the WS feed, undisclosed multi-WS rate limits Opinion: API rate limits, WS delta updates missing, WS delta updates sent in wrong order, asks sent below best bid, airdrop farming bots posting and filling their own orders breaking WS feed. Kalshi: Rate limits and minor book inaccuracies at scale PredictFun & Probable: Surprisingly accurate as of current, monitoring how they handle increasing volumes To get past these limits and scale the Arbitrage Finder we built some advanced new systems 1. Multiple Instances Instead of scaling vertically we moved to scaling horizontally, a central controller handles the deployment & management of multiple proxied worker instances that each keep a local record of a subset of the market orderbooks and detect arbitrage opportunities as soon as dif updates are received These worker instances feed the orderbook data back to the main controller which aggregates all information in one place and formats along them with relevant metadata to be fetched by our trading interfaces and applications 2. Handling “Junk Data” One of the most challenging parts of scaling this application is dealing with the inaccuracies of the data provided by the APIs that we refer to as ‘Junk Data’ Some are easy to deal with: - Book updates returned in the wrong order required an additional ‘lastTimestamp’ value at each book level which was referenced before any future updates are applied, if diff update timestamp was prior to lastTimestamp the dif update is ignored. - Missing book dumps / levels reduced almost entirely by reducing the number of CLOB tokens per WS connection - Dif ask/bid flips appearing at impossible levels are not applied Some were a lot more challenging: - Missing book updates were only detectable with revalidation & comparison, we don’t know what we don't know until we know we don't know it. More complex revalidation triggers and short recycling periods minimize the issue With these updates we can scale the number of local orderbooks we are handling at one time: Before: ~4,000 orderbooks After: ~10,000 orderbooks This, along with the improvements in orderbook accuracy, has increased arb density by 3X Meaning we’re finding 3X the amount of opportunities as before 3. Rate limit bypass To bypass the API limits that limit the quantity of markets we can subscribe to at once we had to ██████ ███ █ ██████ █████ █████████ TRADING SYSTEMS - [ NEW ] The data is only as good as you can display it, ultimately the format in which the data is served will determine how efficiently it can be acted upon We’ve created a system of interconnected tools that enable us to trade these opportunities, each with a different specific use case 1. AlertPilot Trading Terminal A dashboard displaying all the hundreds of arbitrage opportunities the bot has found across 5 different prediction markets in real time + Arbitrage Calculator, showing you exactly how much to bid to take advantage of the arbitrage according to your bankroll, fees & slippage + Double Price Chart, which helps traders to estimate how long their arbitrage take to close + Strategy Guide, explaining how to execute arbitrage trades most effectively to maximize profits + Position Manager, connect your wallets to see your open arbitrage positions, EV, profits & exits 2. AlertPilot Telegram Bot A system for getting alerts on all new arbitrage opportunities immediately, EV, Spreads & market links + Custom Settings, only see the arbitrages you’d want to take with user specific settings + Position Sell Alerts, connected to the AlertPilot Position Manager, get alerts to your phone when its time to sell your arbitrage positions + All 5 Markets, alerts on all 5 supported prediction markets: Polymarket, Kalshi, Opinion, Probable & PredictFun 3. AlertPilot Discord Bot Private chat rooms and arbitrage alerts on the AlertPilot Discord Group + Custom Alerts, the best arbitrage alerts are sent to the discord channel + Support, traders answering your questions on Arbitrage Trading 4. Arbitrage Trading Terminal [ SOON ] A trading terminal built specifically for Arbitrage + Atomic Execution, enter positions on two platforms at the same time + Visualize the Arbitrage, trade with both charts in one place, see the gap close as you take your positions + Manage positions across multiple prediction markets in one place

@devjoshstevens really nice

The release everyone was waiting for is now live. Ghost fills dropped from a peak of 30% to 0.17% with the rollout, and will continue trending toward 0% throughout the day. We know this issue was hurting everyone's experience and we're truly sorry for that but it should now be night and day. This was a significant core protocol change and we're incredibly proud of the whole team for executing it. We'll keep improving our systems, step by step, until we're the best exchange in the world.

@predictorsdao @predictdotfun well thats inherintiylyu wahrt you aresd oing but thats fien jsut dump the airdrop fast before it crsashes this isa YZI labs product = down only

@securezer0 @predictdotfun We’re not trying to artificially create hype. We’re focused on growing a project that’s one of the few capable of genuinely competing with Polymarket and Kalshi

boss: make a tier list of PM and publish it intern: no problem

@williamlegate @usePolyArb Great, Also, a winner fee model would be significantly better than your current fee model. 1% winner fee on profit not principal, then users don’t have to lose twice when they make a bad prediction Fairer system for end users

@securezer0 @usePolyArb Their account is gone now, we had already submitted takedown demands ty

@deviousPenjamin Poly dev alt account is talking

@securezer0 @0xdanzu What are the "months of back logged critical issues", be specific. I've made a trading bot with 7k-ish LOC in just the main backend over the past few months, and although the API is awfully documented I haven't found any "critical issues". Everything is working fine.

the rise of Polymarket will be studied*

@TradingNiel Only by force if someone like Hyperliquid can come and eat their lunch But like you said, all the competition is lacking. Opinion was just a pump and dump. This is what happens when you give Binance 20% of your token supply

@securezer0 Will we ever get say 0.1% fees, i'm not sure.

No one is confident Polymarkets airdrop is going to be significant There’s too much greed + higher fees than Kalshi + adding fees on backdated markets + liq rewards & mm rebate under paid + increasing fee % without warning But yes they’re going to give you $10k airdrop for free Base case we just get a fee rebate Worst case they just airdrop a bunch of sybil wallets from sheer incompetence

@williamlegate @usePolyArb This is entire app is a scam using your companies likeness, can you do something about it?

@usePolyArb Polymarket doesn’t have a 2% “winner fee” (or any winner fee for that matter)

@TradingNiel That’ll take 6 months and won’t work correctly for another 3

@securezer0 They need to give people a fee reduction if you stake their coin.

@Spbrep Kek

@securezer0 >they just airdrop a bunch of sybil wallets from sheer incompetence

I’ve been one of the biggest market makers on Polymarket for a long time. At peak I was doing $10M+ daily volume and paying thousands in fees every single day. The current state is the worst the platform has ever felt. Ghost fills still everywhere. Markets constantly breaking. Payouts randomly missing. Exploits going on for months while the team says “it’s fixed”. You spend more time defending against bugs than actually trading. Meanwhile, communication is a joke. They say “we’re listening” → ignore emails, ignore DMs. They say “we’ll work with top users” → instead it’s random private Telegram groups with whoever shouts the loudest. They say “issue fixed” → it clearly isn’t. At some point you stop believing anything they say. The fee situation is another one. If you’re generating serious volume and paying serious fees (thousands a day), most exchanges shower you with attention and perks. I'm not asking for that but would be nice to at least be acknowledged that you exist and have basic communication, especially after they've announced publicly multiple times that they will start doing this. Instead we got a week-long hype campaign for a “big update” that turned out to be… a hidden fee increase. How dumb do you think your users are? And then stuff like April 5th, missed referral/rebate payments, no announcement, no explanation, nothing. Just silence. That’s not a bug, that’s trust damage. The bigger issue is it feels like nobody on the team has actual trading experience. The design decisions show it. Every update introduces new edge cases, new exploits, new ways to break the order book. People have made many millions exploiting this stuff. Many of these accounts are obvious, trackable, preventable. The community has been pointing it out for months. Ignored. Only now that the markets are borderline unusable does it seem like there’s urgency. Right now the platform is honestly close to untradeable: – ghost fills – manipulation – unreliable payouts – constant bugs – zero transparency And surprise, volume is dropping. Meanwhile Kalshi is catching up fast (have basically overtaken in volume in almost every category except for politics) and Hyperliquid is entering with a team that actually understands trading systems. I want Polymarket to succeed. And yes, maybe the upcoming ghost fill fix helps. But if this pattern continues, terrible communication, fake timelines, ignoring core users, then this won’t be a place serious traders stick around. You can’t build a market while eroding the trust of the people who provide the liquidity, especially not as a many multi billion dollar company! I have spoken to many large polymarket whales (of which a considerable amount have already given up on the platform) and they all share this sentiment. @Polymarket @mustafap0ly @SuhailKakar @_kanarazu_

@Doonhamer_ @Polymarket Or becuase no one wants to pay 3% to 7% of their order in fees

Since the explosion of ghost fill exploits, @Polymarket fees have continued to reduce for almost every day in the last week. Illustrating that a lot of users are currently not trading until it is fixed. Really hope the patch tomorrow solves it.

@Eltonma Kyc is not a good solution, you wouldn’t be able to trade when you’re from a banned jurisdiction

intel.arkm.com/explorer/addre… This motherfucker is actually funding all his thousands of accounts to spam the rewards market. While I can easily checked all dozens of thousands of account that he creates, polymarket does not actively banning all his accounts and there are likely dozens of ppl using this bug. I am highly skeptical that on Monday they can really solve the ghost fill problem. And those lowlifes can easily created huandred of thousands accounts and on Monday they can still use them after the update. If polymarket really wanted to solve the issue, they should at least make sure all accounts created since March (I understand they don’t want to affect legacy wallets) to adopt the new method. All legacy account that does not have at least some trading activity should go through kyc process (that way they don’t affect real user) and all linked account created by same ip address should be autobanned and only can be used after some kinda kyc process. Or I am pretty sure the problem will still persist after Monday

its all starting to make sense

@Doonhamer_ inspect element enjoyers

another generational larper detected

@0xd1namit Don’t worry, DeFi will kill itself

Polymarket will kill DeFi, if it hasn’t already Yesterday I made 0.5% in 4 hours. That’s 1100% APY with almost no risk • Polymarket issued a clarification • UMA voting was already 70% revealed and the outcome was in consensus And if you just look at the top holders in that market, everything becomes obvious anyway Meanwhile, people are risking huge amounts of capital just to make 10% APY in DeFi. And then the protocol just gets hacked When (if) Polymarket introduces rewards for holding pUSD on account, and projects like @gondorfi and @robinmarketsxyz come out of beta, we could see a very big liquidity shift across the crypto market

@veH0rny and ruin a good thing

Can privy drop a token

@tetherwallet @btc @tether @btc lucas1@tether.me

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@eightyhi you are underestimating the power of copy pasting Polymarket rules and resolutions. Then independently handle any disputes (rare & manageable) this is how opinion, predictfun, probable and limitless operate

this article doesn’t answer the most basic question about “prediction markets in hyperliquid”, which is the oracle. there’s no evidence thus far that hyperliquid has any motion towards or intention of listing contracts like “Democratic Nominee for California Governor” or “Taylor Swift Spotify streams” the team dedicated to listing and resolving these contracts at kalshi is twice as big as HL’s entire team. i am skeptical that anyone at HL wants to do that job (because it sucks) yes, there’s a new HIP protocol that can do fully collateralized binary options. they used the word “prediction market” in their tweet about it in february. nothing has happened since then, and any gesturing towards the idea that HYPE is actually threatening polymarket or kalshi is just just really low effort pattern matching. maybe they fully outsource the oracle function and figure something out.