Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

AI infrastructure spending by the largest firms helped fuel US investment growth in 2025. A new analysis of sentiment data from company earnings calls suggests that optimism about AI will continue to contribute to future overall investment growth. sffed.us/4wv5pT4

Companies are increasingly using advanced algorithms powered by artificial intelligence to set prices. A new Economic Letter finds evidence that price adjustments are more sensitive to monetary policy in sectors where AI pricing is more prevalent. sffed.us/4dhtYKB

What do chief financial officers predict about inflation? A new Economic Letter finds that CFO expectations for price growth at their own firms can provide an economy-wide indicator that tracks well with subsequent core consumer price index inflation. sffed.us/4d4JGZk

The latest regional indicators for labor markets and prices are available: sffed.us/4k01FCy The San Francisco Fed monitors regional economic indicators to help achieve the Fed system's maximum employment and price stability goals.

A little-known fact is that the majority of the staff at the @sffed work to support a modern and resilient payment system and a safe and sound banking system. These are critical functions keeping the nation’s economy running smoothly every day.

What does the Federal Reserve do? Our core responsibilities are managing payments, regulating and supervising banks, and conducting monetary policy.

Oil markets have experienced considerable volatility. In the latest SF FedViews, Vice President Adam Shapiro writes that the ultimate economic impact from higher prices will depend critically on how long market disruptions persist. sffed.us/4vAAF2K

Contacts reported a weaker economic outlook and heightened uncertainty stemming from the impact of the ongoing conflict in the Middle East on energy markets and global supply chains.

Retail sales grew slightly on net, while demand for consumer and business services was stable overall.

The latest Twelfth District Beige Book reports that economic activity was somewhat subdued but largely stable during the mid-February through March reporting period. sffed.us/beigebook

Contacts reported a weaker economic outlook and heightened uncertainty stemming from the impact of the ongoing conflict in the Middle East on energy markets and global supply chains.

Retail sales grew slightly on net, while demand for consumer and business services was stable overall.

The San Francisco Fed’s Center for Monetary Research just released a new tool that lets users calibrate the hypothetical monetary policy rate path based on their own views of the economy and interpretation of the dual mandate. frbsf.org/research-and-i…

Following his presentation, Professor Jones will answer live and pre-submitted questions with our host moderator, Huiyu Li, co-head of EERN and research advisor at the @sffed.

Professor Jones will discuss how AI accelerates the “ideas production function” and how advances in machine intelligence can transform the productivity gain per unit of R&D investment. Register for the event: sffed.us/EERN415

On April 15, we’ll welcome Benjamin F. Jones, professor of entrepreneurship at Kellogg School of Management at @NorthwesternU, where he will share a framework for analyzing the impact of AI on R&D.

Prices for some goods and services are not directly observed and must be indirectly derived for measuring inflation. A new Economic Letter examines this nonmarket-based inflation and its implications for monetary policy. sffed.us/4vfLs1Z

"Simply stated, slower labor force growth translates into lower benchmark job gains."--@MaryDalyEcon sffed.us/4c0IaXB

What does a slow growth labor market mean for monetary policy? For one, it means "traditional 'rules of thumb' for labor market health are changing," writes President Mary C. Daly in a new blog post.