sid
422 posts

sid
@sidahimsa
class '17. Crypto rules everything around me
Katılım Aralık 2021
172 Takip Edilen294 Takipçiler

What. A. Year.
Benzimra & Co. turns 1.
Delivering multi-millions in capital raised, TVL, token market caps, and global impressions.
New site, new brand, new vision. 🗝️ benzimra.co
Never been more bullish. #fuckthebears
English

I think this is what makes analysist so devided about what's next for BTC
Yes we followed the 4y cycle so far
But also we went from 15k to 125k during QT and we never did that before
QE is like the natural environment for BTC to go absolutely wild
- USD weakens
- FED sheet grows
- Spending goes up
- Liq floods markets
- More ETF flows
- More investing and gambling
- Scarce assets go up
Not to forget that literally not a single institutional boomer knows or gives a fuck about some 4y "halving" cycle
We're not in full QE yet tho, but the stage is being set rn
We're easing but not done with cuts
This is why the chart above is important. The moment we see FED net liq catching up with BTC price, a mass amount of liquidity will stream into the markets
And then you can think of everything coming together like Trump talking about cutting taxes, stimmies, and so on
But on a timeline this might take months
Wen bananapump tho?
English

Correlation has been going down but in favour of BTC - more money coming in over time even though we went through QT - pretty bullish. All this thanks to ETFs, Saylor, Asian QE liquidity, ...
I believe this 2023–2025 bull run is the first time in Bitcoin’s entire history that BTC performed extremely well during a QT cycle
This is significant
Curious to see if we will snap back into a closer correlation during QE since during QE the FED net liq is usually up only (bc they buy back into treasuries, banks get money, sheets expand, etc)
Since every other real "banana" vertical style exponential growth on BTC has been during QE... And we're heading into QE... We could argue the best is yet to come

English

Still very relevant btw
To sum it all up
Before 2020 markets responded to size of the FED balance sheet and interest rates
Print money and/or cut rates = market goes up
In 2020 they doubled their balance and printed like mad. What matters is what followed
Spending went wild
- stimmies
- covering unemployment
- loans
- banks, businesses, people
You got money, I got money, everybody got money
and as result all markets boomed… stonks, houses, crypto, baguettes, all of it
Suddenly the FED net liquidity is the only thing that matters (instead of balance sheet)
The formula takes out all the money NOT in circulation to see what’s left
Meaning Net liq = FED minus Treasury and Reverse Repo
Now that we know the rules, we can see the 95% correlation - with 2 week lag
Net liq goes up and markets go up
Net liq goes down and markets go down
What this means is also that interest rates don’t matter
Neither does CPI. FED speeches, or Trump tariffs,..
Here's the TradingView indicator:
tradingview.com/script/OBJPsNq…
Max Anderson@MaxAnderson
Something magic happened in July 2020. Since then, you can predict the future. With 95% accuracy. It's worked perfectly for over 2 years. The 1% who know have made billions betting on it. But nobody else is paying attention. Here's how you can use this too 👇
English

@sidahimsa Yep, it's not just about how much they print anymore... it's how fast that money actually moves around 📈
English

@zachariaspro Good point
Sideways would make sense for this period of mass exchange of wealth. I mean, we can obviously tell BTC is being handed over from the older generation to a new, institutional investor
English

People say things, Im just looking at raw data. Across the board, but especially crypto, this is some of the worst sentiment in history
And yet the market is at $3 trillion
I track wallet activity and outflows are up massive but on-chain whales have been accumulating. I think sideways for awhile
English

Seems like there is a lot of conflicting information / data. It's very difficult to make an opinion that isn't invalidated by x or y
Out of the top of my head, I've heard the following arguments across Telegram and X
Bears:
- 4y cycle ended (according to many) so it's a logical top
- OGs selling billions
- we went from 15500 USD (Nov 2022) to 125000 USD (Oct 2025)
- broke down 50 MA on the weekly, must mark top (based on prev bull runs)
- BTC now highly correlated to traditional markets, which are propped up by Ai and "earnings" and can collapse anytime
- normies aren't really coming in bc they got burned in the past and crypto isn't as new and cool as it was
- all of crypto is massively overvalued and not backed by real earnings
- alts launch at insane high value and it's pure extraction
- even stonks did better!
- even gold did better!
- too many tokens, creating dilution on top of inflation (massive VC unlocks for alts)
- 10/10 rekt liquidity and potentially market makers and we're f'd
- quantum computing is coming for us sooner than we think
- ETF flows turned negative
- miners turning into Ai datacenters now
- retail volume still far below 2021 levels on major exchanges like Coinbase
- lack of new narratives, we're here now, it's done bro
Bulls:
- we haven't had a real blow off top or euphoria stage, so we can't be done yet. For example no facebook frenzy and google search trends are at low 2021 levels - normies not hyped yet
- we didn't have a sell signal on any of the usual peak indicators - like Pi cycle / Rainbow chart / Golden Ratio
- 4y cycle is dead, institutions have changed the game and liquidity, and in fact the halving effect is so tiny now... so this time it's different
- we're only now heading into more rate cuts, which means more liquidity is coming to the markets which is a correlation with the start of previous bull runs, not the end
- 2000 USD stimmies rumour
- US gov is going to raise the debt ceiling
- M2 money supply keeps going up
- companies and countries will keep accumulating
- USD and fiat keeps being printed, we head into even more inflation soon
- ETF demand still higher than the daily BTC emission
- didn't even have a real alt season (which might never be the same anyways)
- peak is supposed to be early 2026 based on April 2024 halving
- 35% corrections are healthy and only considered consolidations
- even tho some OGs are selling, majority of long term holders are not selling at all
- we had a massive open interest leverage wipe event, which is setting stage for more upside
- fear and greed index is extremely low which is usually a bottom sign
- the ETFs are mostly US based and so rest of the world can still follow with another institutional wave
- still huge pools of capital unexposed to BTC
- funding flipped negative
- / insert random exotic indicator showing buy signal
Honestly... it's so difficult to tell and we all try to make educated guesses on future events based on data we have from the past. But past performance doesn't guarantee future behavior. And crypto is extremely young, meaning that anything can change in just a few years time, breaking patterns
In the end we (should) personally decide which arguments we give most weight to. Whichever side we lean to, ideally we're ready for every outcome presented to us
English
sid retweetledi

An important victory – but we still need to stop Chat Control.
The Council of Ministers in the EU has, after three years, now reached a common position on Chat Control. The requirement for mandatory scanning (including end-to-end encrypted messaging services) has been removed, which is a major victory. The EU Council failed to implement mandatory mass surveillance. However, in its proposal, they are laying the groundwork for mass surveillance in the future.
What happens now?
The Council will now enter negotiations with the European Parliament, led by the European Commission. We urge the Parliament to stand firm in the trilogue negotiations and not deviate an inch from its previous position, demanding: no mass surveillance whatsoever without suspicion and a court order, no ID-verification requirements, and no censorship of legal content.
The EU Council is preparing for mandatory mass surveillance and censorship
The Council’s version of Chat Control includes voluntary scanning, vaguely worded legislation that may entail requirements for age verification and mandatory ID checks (even for end-to-end encrypted services), and an article stating that the requirement for mandatory scanning shall be reconsidered every three years. They also introduce a new infrastructure for blocking material, where it is up to each member state to block what they consider illegal. At the same time, a massive EU center is being established to work exclusively on this. All in all, this indicates that the EU Council is aiming to build an infrastructure for mass surveillance, and the legislative proposal is written in a way that opens the door to it.
The EU Council’s Chat Control version
- The EU Council’s Chat Control version introduces a new type of scanning for so-called new material and grooming. This means that AI will scan people’s conversations, photos and videos, in search of criminal content. This will result in enormous numbers of false positives, and people’s private lives will move from an AI detection to being examined by employees at a new EU center. This is mass surveillance and people’s private lives will be scanned without any suspicion and without a court order. This scanning is carried out in cooperation with American companies and can at any time be used to scan for virtually anything; Europol has already requested broader scanning and wants access to material that is not illegal.
- Every three years, the European Commission will challenge the law and attempt to force mandatory scanning (even for end-to-end-encrypted services). Messaging services (including end-to-end encrypted) must take “all reasonable measures” to reduce the risk of their services being misused, including implementation of age verification. This means that the EU may require ID checks and ban anonymous use of messaging services and social media. This poses problems for people who criticize those in power in authoritarian countries, for whistleblowers who want to leak documents, and for sources who wish to speak anonymously with journalists.
- A new infrastructure for blocking material is introduced, where it’s up to each of the member states to issue blocking orders for what they consider illegal. This implies that content that is illegal in one country will also be blocked in a country where it is legal. Once this infrastructure is in place, it also opens the door to a slippery slope when it comes to censorship.
Stop Chat Control
From the outset, Chat Control was a proposal that aimed to introduce mass surveillance. That ambition is clearly still present within the Commission and among many of the member states in the Council. The Council failed to introduce mass surveillance but has succeeded in paving the way for new attempts. This applies not only to future proposals for mandatory chat control scanning every three years. This is part of a broader development in which private and secure communication is being challenged by forces seeking to introduce mass surveillance. ProtectEU is a rebranded Chat Control, aimed at banning encryption. National laws are trying to do the same. We need to put a stop to these attempts here and now.
English

@JennyJenny83272 @SirBiscuits1 @JamesWynnReal That was 15 years ago, and was patched within 5 hours
The ZEC bug was in the code for years
English

Monero is getting harder to access.
So, I’m launching GhostDrip.
A small project, but one I’m proud of.
It automates DCA into $XMR no KYC.
Every DCA platform wants your ID.
GhostDrip is the first one that doesn’t.
We deserve tools that respect privacy.
ghostdrip.xyz

English

@Belurah @DontTraceMeBruh It's sarcasm because that's what zec is. I got fooled as well at first
English

XMR was branded the darknet coin because it’s privacy superiority. If Zcash is proven to be superior in that regard it will surely attract governmental intervention as XMR has - forcing exchanges to delist from a profitability standpoint and be regulatory-compliant. What makes Zcash any different besides the narrative “it was supposed to improve btc”?
English

If you told me 6 months ago that Zcash would start absorbing Bitcoin’s original use-case, I’d have laughed.
Today, I’m not so sure...
In fact, I believe a strong case can be made that BTC's original cypherpunk vision has been hijacked.
Not just because it has underperformed things like the $QQQ's, but because its role as a sovereign, censorship-resistant, private medium of wealth storage and transfer has been hollowed out...
For example,
~9% of all BTC sits in US ETFs or government treasuries today; custodial, surveilled, fully transparent structures where individual sovereignty is basically zero.
At the same time, global financial surveillance is accelerating.
From EU stablecoin balance caps, eventual roll outs of CBDC’s across a range of jurisdictions and the very real possibility of a more interventionist, anti crypto “democratic socialist” US government.
What many no longer discuss is that Bitcoin actually had an opportunity to fix this over a decade ago...
The Zerocoin proposal, a cryptographically sound privacy layer designed specifically for Bitcoin, was brought to the community in 2013.
It could have become Bitcoin’s native shielded transaction system or at least a sidechain that preserved the asset’s cypherpunk roots.
But Bitcoin Core rejected it.
Not because it didn’t work, but because the culture had already begun shifting toward “don’t change Bitcoin,” ossification, and risk-aversion.
The team behind Zerocoin eventually left and created Zcash, implementing the privacy Bitcoin refused to adopt.
Against that backdrop, Bitcoin has no credible way to shield balances or transaction flows.
Even Satoshi openly acknowledged this limitation in 2010: “If a solution was found, a much better, easier, more convenient implementation of Bitcoin would be possible.”
He was talking specifically about privacy.
If you go back through Bitcointalk archives, it’s clear a lot of early Bitcoiners believed that if stronger cryptographic tools existed then, Bitcoin would’ve implemented them from day one.
That sentiment never fully went away, and as modern ZK proving systems have matured, it’s resurfaced in a very real way.
This is (IMO) one of the biggest drivers behind ZEC’s recent outperformance today.
But why ZEC then and not $XMR?
Monero is obfuscation, not encryption; so it is weaker from a technical POV.
Further, XMR's branding as a “darknet coin” permanently limits its mainstream legitimacy. Zcash, on the other hand, has consciously rebranded itself around freedom, sovereignty, and cryptographic integrity, not as the preferred currency of criminals...
/////
The larger, more recent and timely unlock for ZEC though, is less around its branding but more around recent advances in UX.
Last month, NEAR Intents fully integrated ZEC, rolling out Zashi Swaps.
This has helped enable native, shielded, cross-chain swaps directly onchain and on mobile (without having to use a CEX).This is the infrastructure ZEC never had.
And since its gone live, the market has reacted.
$ZEC has already gone from ~$78 to a peak of ~$800 before settling in the ~$500 range today, and on Near Intents it’s now out-voluming Bitcoin:
30D: $390M ZEC vs. $272M BTC
7D: $168M ZEC vs. $94M BTC
These flows tell a very clear story: since its become trivial for users to rotate their BTC into ZEC in a fully non-custodial, private way, they've begun doing it.
You can also see this playing out directly on-chain.
Since October 1st, nearly 1 million ZEC (+25%) has moved into shielded pools, almost all of it driven by a vertical explosion in the Orchard pool once intents + mobile UX went live.
Nearly 5M ZEC is now sitting in shielded pools.
Another important point: the Winklevoss twins have publicly thrown their support behind ZEC.
While it may be easy to write them off as low signal these days, them throwing their weight behind a new token is very significant.
People forget how instrumental they were to Bitcoin’s early breakout, they:
- were among the first major BTC whales (held ~1% of supply)
- helped shape the macro narrative in 2013
- provided early liquidity pipelines
- and they helped legitimize Bitcoin to institutions at a time when nobody else could.
In this sense, their backing isn’t symbolic but also signals to a very specific class of early adopters that ZEC is worth paying attention to.
Their alignment with the Trump administration also adds a non-trivial political dimension...
And it’s not just them. An increasing number of early BTC whales, have started to acknowledge that ZEC is picking up the values Bitcoin has slowly drifted away from.
You can feel that shift in tone if you track who’s resurfacing in the conversation
Finally, ZEC has also stood out because it’s been one of the only PvE assets since the October upgrade went live, not PvP like the rest of the space has felt.
Where most of crypto has been existing participants trading against each other (plus some ETF- and DAT-specific flows), ZEC has actually pulled in new capital:
- BTC holders rotating for privacy reasons
- off-chain capital looking for sovereignty guarantees
- and even Silicon Valley technologists who still believe in and want exposure to the original cypherpunk ethos.
When you put all of this together:
- institutional/government capture of BTC
- rising global surveillance
- Satoshi’s own comments about Bitcoin’s missing privacy layer
- Bitcoin core’s refusal to adopt Zerocoin or any credible privacy upgrade (forcing its creators to build Zcash instead)
- OG Bitcoiners revisiting the “what Bitcoin should have been” argument
- ZEC’s technical superiority over XMR
- the Zashi/Intents UX unlock
- volume flipping BTC
- shielded supply going parabolic
- major early Bitcoin figures (Winklevoss + others) now supporting ZEC
- ZEC being one of the few PvE assets this cycle
…it becomes difficult to ignore the possibility that $ZEC is stepping into the role Bitcoin abandoned, a store of value with privacy and sovereignty built in.




English

zcash's optional privacy and scaling privacy to the planet
a big reason why privacy was quiet until now is that its proponents wanted to appeal to criminals instead of everyday individuals
I understand saying you do stuff on the darknet has aura, but if you do this, everyone will think privacy is only for criminals, and privacy will get outlawed
this is what is happening now
you end up tremendously hurting the cause for the false image of sticking it to the man — you are, in fact, sticking it to no one but your fellow man
privacy is about giving every individual the choice, dignity, and freedom in how they present themselves to the world
it is ownership over one's identity
emphasis on *every individual*, not just a few people on select corners of the internet — planetary scale
eric hughes' cypherpunk manifesto mentions this twice
"privacy is not secrecy, privacy is the power to selectively reveal oneself to the world."
"an anonymous transaction system is not a secret transaction system. an anonymous system empowers individuals to reveal their identity when desired and only when desired; this is the essence of privacy"
zcash leaves this decision up to the individual on the wallet level
for example, the main wallet on zcash, zashi wallet, shields everything by default and gives several warnings if you are using transparent addresses
it is lazy, low-resolution, and objectively false to claim that a system must be more private because criminals use it disproportionately
while you're at it, what other engineering/math/life advice do you ask criminals?
this is no different than thinking that TRON has better security or speed than all other blockchains because people use it disproportionately in Latin America
the reason is not technical; it is a network effect from targeting that niche, nothing else
anyone with basic logic can tell you that mixer-based systems (like Monero) are inherently weaker than encryption-based systems (like Zcash)
a mixer-based system attempts to distract and obfuscate amongst decoys, while encryption allows for true vanishing
while they are both much better than no privacy at all, it is borderline dangerous to claim that mixer-type systems will give the individual the same level of security
there is no debate here, this is a fact of mathematics, no different than saying that 2 is greater than 1 — ring signatures are great, but they can not compete with encryption + integrity via ZK
a mixer-based system also requires constant motion (including bait ones from people trying to break your privacy) for obfuscation, but true privacy comes from value at rest
zcash's shielded pool has now surpassed billions of dollars and is the largest such pool in all of crypto, one can use it as their private Swiss vault on the internet and move funds only when necessary — that is a colossal anonymity set that gives privacy for the masses
and that part is the most important: "the masses"
zcash's two-mode system is an incredible Trojan horse for scaling privacy to planetary scale while continuing the mission of the cypherpunks, that privacy is about ownership and agency of one's identity
it is time for privacy in crypto to stop being a fringe edge case only reserved for criminals and to start being a fundamental right for every individual on the internet

English

@0xXtopher @aulijk Partly. I watched live and only Do Kwon and Shkreli were there with Cobie and the host. The other frames are just added for drama. SBF wasn't there
English

run it back turbo
Kalshi Traders@KalshiTrade
NEW KALSHI MARKET: When will the next episode of UpOnly be released?
English
sid retweetledi

I’m turning 41, but I don’t feel like celebrating.
Our generation is running out of time to save the free Internet built for us by our fathers.
What was once the promise of the free exchange of information is being turned into the ultimate tool of control.
Once-free countries are introducing dystopian measures such as digital IDs (UK), online age checks (Australia), and mass scanning of private messages (EU).
Germany is persecuting anyone who dares to criticize officials on the Internet. The UK is imprisoning thousands for their tweets. France is criminally investigating tech leaders who defend freedom and privacy.
A dark, dystopian world is approaching fast — while we’re asleep. Our generation risks going down in history as the last one that had freedoms — and allowed them to be taken away.
We’ve been fed a lie.
We’ve been made to believe that the greatest fight of our generation is to destroy everything our forefathers left us: tradition, privacy, sovereignty, the free market, and free speech.
By betraying the legacy of our ancestors, we’ve set ourselves on a path toward self-destruction — moral, intellectual, economic, and ultimately biological.
So no, I’m not going to celebrate today. I’m running out of time. WE are running out of time.
English





