Daniel

@AlessioTMAD What about uso

call surge detected yesterday across main ETFs traders smell the taco 10% off for 3 months with my link tmad.net/alessio

@ZeeContrarian1 What about china positions

Instead of wasting your weekend on reading hedge fund 13Fs that barely beat the market, get ready for a write-up next week on why I increased one of the positions I previously recommended in our equity-only portfolio to 22% of the portfolio (hedged with $QQQ spreads).

@knafo_sarah Cest vrai cette amourette avec soral ?

L'agression d'une religieuse française à Jérusalem par un fanatique est profondément choquante. Heureusement, un passant s'est interposé pour la défendre et l'agresseur a été interpellé. Attaquer une femme consacrée, nécessairement innocente, près du Cénacle, dans la ville sainte, c'est blesser quelque chose d'essentiel. Ceux qui commettent de tels actes ne défendent aucune cause juste. La liberté de culte et la sécurité des chrétiens doivent être garanties partout, et particulièrement en Terre Sainte.

News sentiment on mega-caps this week: INTC +23% / sentiment +0.49 AMD +11% / sentiment +0.77 AMZN +12% / sentiment +0.66 META +10% / sentiment +0.68 NVDA +6% / sentiment +0.76 Everyone loves them. At the top, they always do.

Claude is abandoning me. Is it difficult to migrate to Codex?

Market breadth just hit 9/100. Only 32% of stocks are above their 50-day average. Last time this happened, the market bottomed within 3 weeks. We're not there yet. But the clock is ticking.

Your portfolio was up 12% this year. Then your coworker mentioned he doubled his money on Nvidia. And suddenly 12% felt like failure. It wasn't. 12% compounded over 20 years turns €50k into €480k. But nobody makes a TikTok about 12%. One loud number from the wrong mouth can destroy a decade of discipline.

@ZeeContrarian1 thanks for sharing

$SPX down 1% while $VIX is RED - that’s hedge unwinding. When protection comes off into weakness, it usually signals exhaustion in fear. For this Iran-driven cycle, it suggests we’re getting close to a local bottom in my view.

I reread Market Wizards every year. The lesson that haunted me wasn't about charts or risk or timing. It was this: Every single one of them went broke following someone else's advice. Every single one of them got rich following their own rules. Not similar rules. Their own. Built from their own losses. Forged from their own sleepless nights. Tested with their own money. Conviction is earned. Never given. The strategy that will make you rich doesn't exist yet. You have to bleed it into existence.

Read books written by dead people. Not because old is better. But because time already did the filtering for you. A book that survived 200 years passed a test no algorithm can replicate. Millions of people across centuries said: this still matters. That's the ultimate peer review.

My take: I'm not buying here. Too early. IV too hot. If you want in, wait for stabilization (3-5 days of range) and IV back below 55%. Then May $40 calls get interesting.

⚠️ But before you ape in: 1. Oil above $100 for 3 months — can ANY airline survive? 2. Are LUV's fuel hedges still active or expired? 3. Is this $6M directional or a hedge from a short seller? 4. IV spiked +49% — buying calls now = buying expensive vol on a falling knife

🚨 LUV crashed -29% in 30 days. Someone just bet $6 million it bounces. Oil at $103. Airlines getting destroyed. The entire sector is drowning in puts. Except Southwest. Here's what's happening: 🧵👇