whyis

@jack Fascination! My question is why not start small with a test group before going full-scale? Or has a pilot already been conducted with promising result?

Thinking about the “future work OS”: core team + AI agents + elastic freelancers. Microsoft already owns the workflow surface + governance. Upwork owns external labor rails (marketplace liquidity + trust graph + contracting + payments). An acquisition would let Microsoft close the loop: intent → orchestration → execution → payment → audit. Value: makes external work first-class inside M365; raises switching costs; turns agents into a procurement channel. Risks: antitrust scrutiny, integration complexity, fraud/quality if agent-driven hiring isn’t governed. $MSFT $UPWK #freelancer #FutureOfWork

The best way to “beat” HFT isn’t a faster computer. In a market full of AI + nanosecond noise, your edge is often… doing nothing. If you’re chasing moonshots with a 5% stop in 2026, you’re basically donating liquidity to the pros. Find a great stock, place your bet, size it right, widen the stops, zoom out — and let time + asymmetry do the heavy lifting. 🚀 #HFT #upwk #investing #AI

Tried Waymo for 9 rides 88 km in Los Angeles, impressively smoother, and also cheaper than Uber. The future is already here. If Tesla Robotaxi is better than Waymo, its success seems inevitable.

A swimming coach told me that if kids fix their technique too early, they often can’t go far. I think that applies to life, too. If you try to be “perfect” too young, you stop experimenting. You avoid risk. You move slow. You follow the rules instead of creating your own. And that’s how you become ordinary.

Chatgpt said： There are a few reasons modern systems encourage “do what you feel” instead of “master yourself”: a. Consumer economy thrives on impulse Banks, shops, and social media profit from instant gratification — credit cards, dopamine feeds, fast food. If everyone practiced restraint, GDP might drop, but well-being would rise. The system rewards consumption, not control. b. Schools train compliance, not sovereignty Most schooling still follows industrial-age design: training workers, not thinkers. “Freedom” becomes following external desires (grades, status, jobs) rather than inner agency. c. Culture confuses freedom with comfort We’ve equated “no discomfort” with “freedom.” But growth requires discomfort — resisting cravings, facing fear, delaying reward. Real freedom demands friction. d. Courts and institutions react to problems, not causes They manage behavior after it goes wrong — not the self-control that would prevent the issue. It’s governance, not guidance. Modern society preaches “authenticity” — but without self-mastery, authenticity becomes impulsiveness. True authenticity is alignment between values and actions, not the absence of restraint. The people who live with quiet power — great athletes, investors, creators, thinkers — all share one pattern: They practice voluntary limits today to preserve involuntary freedom tomorrow. Freedom of choice is a starting point. Freedom from compulsion is the destination.

Random thoughts on freedom: I can eat whatever I want, as much as I want, but then I might end up with diabetes and lose that freedom. Or I can control myself, stay healthy, and keep the freedom to eat what I want. So what’s real freedom, doing whatever you want, or having the discipline to stay free? The answer feels obvious to me. But why is society doing the opposite? Schools, banks, shops, even courts, all seem to teach our kids to “do whatever you want,” instead of learning self-control.

Randoms thoughts on tennis: you can study all the theory and learn from the best coach, think you know it all, yet still can’t swing right. Real progress comes from the loop: Theory -> Practice -> Reflection. The same applies to investing. Simple principles takes years to master, each cycle deepens your understanding. Language can’t convey true understanding. Wisdom cannot be taught.

@SCurveCapital The CEO feels like a safe pick for the board, not ideal but not bad either. My concern is that they might get acquired when the market is at the bottom.

I've decided to hold off on a full write-up for $UPWK I'll give it another couple of quarters and retain a 5% allocation while I see how their Uma AI and enterprise strategy progresses. What gives? As I've now watched close to 8 hours of interviews from the CEO and Exec team, I'm unsure that they have what it takes to turn this into more than a strong value play (maybe a double?), and I'm on the hunt for true multibaggers (cliche, I know). The opportunity for this to be one of the most important businesses of the next decade is there, but I'm not quite sure if management will see it AND capitalize on it. I will always seek to be transparent and will never lie to "pump my bags." I need to see more from management to gain conviction here. If it helps bring anyone else up to speed, here's a little infographic, courtesy of Claude, on my views.

The clever build walls, but only the wise build paths. Strength without wisdom devours its master. Brilliance without wisdom is a sword without a hand. Technology rises, yet human nature remains. Only wisdom can turn survival into peace.

Repetition gets you started. Reflection keeps you growing. Without reflection, you plateau. With it, you break limits. Sports, languages, investing, it’s the same rule: Repetition builds competence. Reflection builds excellence.

@MarioNawfal Check DAOs, direct democracy is not effective.

ELON: I'D RECOMMEND DIRECT DEMOCRACY ON MARS “[Mars] would be a new frontier and an opportunity to rethink the whole nature of government, just as was done in the creation of the United States.  I would suggest having direct democracy. People vote directly on things, as opposed to representative democracy.  Representative democracy, I think, is too subject to special interests and a coercion of the politicians and that kind of thing.  So, I'd recommend that there's just direct democracy.  People vote on laws, the population votes on laws themselves.  The laws must be short enough that people can understand them.” Lex Fridman Podcast, December 2021

@alojoh Only 26m in revenue? I’m guessing that’s not from EV sales but from “other new initiatives”

Here is the math: 2Q 979785/6368817 = 15.4% 1Q = 6M minus 2Q (983060-979785)/(6394849-6368817) = 12.6%

🔥Something is clearly off in Xiaomi's EV / SU7 disclosure. Apologies that I didn't catch it earlier. As I had reported early today, Xiaomi reported an impressive 15.4% gross profit margin for 2Q 2024. This was Xiaomi's first ever vehicle sales quarter and this kind of gross profit margin had never been delivered this quickly! But there is a giant problem. 1) From the 2Q and 6M numbers we can easily work out the 1Q numbers. 2) If you do that you also compute the 1Q gross margin and works out to be positive 12.6%. This is virtually IMPOSSIBLE! Why? Because the volume in 1Q was negligible (almost no sales as sales hadn't started officially). 3) Hence, it appears that I falsely concluded that the impressive 15.4% 2Q GM was driven by Xiaomi's very high 27,000 vehicle sales volume for 2Q. 27K in the first quarter is extremely high! Hence, my conclusion made sense. However... 4) The implied 1Q positive 12.6% GM makes zero sense. 5) I am not accusing Xiaomi of misreporting numbers but something in their accouting is very different from how automakers typically report these numbers. Given Xiaomi's extremely limited automotive disclosure, I can only speculate. 1) A possiblity is that Xiaomi is not using straight line depreciation but a form of volume based depreciation. This would be very unsual and boost their early quarter gross profitability. This effect would fade as volume increases and turn against them at very high volumes (vs straigh line). However, I think this alone would still not fully explain the positive gross margin in 1Q. 2) The "and other new initiatives" is a black box. Xiaomi could have added some software revenue it deemed related to EV sales. Not clear. Xiaomi got me this time: Xiaomi 1 / AJ nil. 😢

Upwork should acquire Beeline. #upwk

@merlinscapital My guess is he wasn’t sure if it was the bottom or not. He just didn’t want to risk his reputation before retirement.

If this is bottom, why is warren Buffett all cash right now?

@stonkmetal Try ResMed. They’ve got a strong moat and solid financials. The big question is whether new meds like GLP-1 can really tackle obesity. #RMD

I'm looking for some new ideas to research. What's the highest quality business that comes to mind that's not a popular consensus long name? Low cyclicality, high reinvestment opps and ROIC, skin in the game, etc

As for the opinions on dividends, one way to determine the truth is by assessing which side was more rational and analytical.

Thoughts on investment. 1) only buy the number one in a new industry. 2) large enough to reduce risks like privatisation. 3) strong divided opinions. 4) real scale advantage, high moat. #Tesla #BTC

@AltaFoxCapital The challenge or opportunity for Upwork is in creating a system that allows companies to effectively manage online freelancers. If it remains just a talent marketplace, client loyalty may not be strong.

$UPWK screens very cheap. Everyone seems scared about AI impact, but seems like fundamentals have been solid to date. Anyone have strong views bullish or bearish? (no position)