Connor Haley

2.9K posts

Connor Haley

Connor Haley

@AltaFoxCapital

Long-term focused investment firm out of Fort Worth, TX. https://t.co/MxZR00Yvgf

Fort Worth, Texas Katılım Şubat 2018
1.1K Takip Edilen46.4K Takipçiler
Connor Haley
Connor Haley@AltaFoxCapital·
Thoughtful post.
Brett Caughran@FundamentEdge

AI won't kill fundamental investing because more information doesn't kill alpha. We have decades of priors here (Excel, Bloomberg, alt data...all democratized analysis & information gathering, and didn't kill alpha). As measured by factor volatility, stocks are less efficient and more alpha-rich than ever (and empirically, the ability of multi-eight figure market neutral multi-managers to consistently grind out 10-15% returns in an idio-maximized way proves this point...15 years ago a $10bn hedge fund was considered to be impossibly large). Innovations in investment process have shifted alpha pools, for sure, and systematic investors have arbitraged many old, reliable fundamental alpha pools. But as the players at the poker table have shifted, the constraints of those new players have created new alpha pools. Long duration fundamental investing has been gutted, and definitionally competing against a group of non-fundamental (quants, factor/thematic investors, indexers) and duration-constrained (multi's) investors should be a huge competitive advantage, long term (however frustrating in the near term). To wit, a 9-month thesis where I "look through" the next two prints is now considered a long-term thesis. Rigorous investment process serves investment judgment, but the real alpha generation fits a power-law distribution and there is some ineffable "nose for money" that the great investors have, that cannot be trained necessarily. Investing is a very hard game, that cannot be distilled to a reinforcement learning sandbox (by the time it is, the regime will have shifted and new drivers move stocks). AI has no sense of materiality, no true discernment, and the lack of context of N of 1 situations (if you haven't noticed, we are living in an N of 1 world!). There is a irreducible element of humanness that is critical to success in fundamental investing, and that won't change. What does this all mean? In my opinion, there is no better time to be starting a careers as an investor. My first year on the desk, I spent a lot of time doing grunt work: updating Nielsen files, updating models for my PM, creating same store sales master files, building question lists for CEO meetings, etc. This is grunt work. I can automate this all now, and get more quickly to the deep, value added parts of learning the investment process. Will AI drive alpha? This is a debate people are having, which I find sort of silly. When used correctly, by the right investor, of course it will. Ask any great investor if they had another 4 hours of research time per day whether the quality of their research would improve? That's kind of a dumb question...of course it will. Compressing the mechanical part of your job to focus more on the artisanal part of the job is Step 1, and with agentic systems accelerating fast is now in the strike zone of possibility. This is before we start to layer in a broader monitoring net and use cases to go deeper and build more rigor, finding signals in unstructured data that were missed before, as well as turning your investment genius into a co-pilot pattern recognition system. The future is very bright for fundamental investing, in my opinion.

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Jacob Rowe
Jacob Rowe@Jaro_rogue·
Sorry FMP doesn't sniff cap iq
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Jacob Rowe
Jacob Rowe@Jaro_rogue·
Someone is a cheap Capital IQ API equivalent away from becoming a multi-millionaire. Everyone will be able to make their own dashboards in a day. Only thing that keeps koyfin and tikr in business is their access to enterprise Capital IQ where they can spread cost across users.
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Brett
Brett@CCM_Brett·
@AltaFoxCapital @FreightAlley @grok Doesn't matter. Stuff is dead. Almost every diehard I know from west coast (outside of Oregon people) think sport is dead. I don't care anymore and I literally played for one of the Pac 12 teams (RIP)
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Connor Haley
Connor Haley@AltaFoxCapital·
@finnews15 @LongVollllll @ValleyFallsRI IR rarely has enough influence if the CFO doesn’t “get it.” A good board will oversee good capital allocation/ ensure a strong CFO is in the seat. Good/engaged boards hyper focused on value creation are the exception vs the norm.
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finnews
finnews@finnews15·
@AltaFoxCapital @LongVollllll @ValleyFallsRI Connor - To what extent can a skilled Board incentivize that type of CFO to do value creation (or also CEO)?…Or perhaps IR who is smart “educates” them. Obviously with GEICO or other $BRK holdings, the subs’ CFO do not have to “get it”. You’ve been on Boards and IR convos.🙏
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FestivusCap
FestivusCap@LongVollllll·
Today I tired to explain to a CFO that it made sense to buy back 10% of the company as it grows 20% and has a 5% FCF yield. He said “we are a growth company.” I said that doesn’t mean you aren’t a growth company, it simply means so could roll the shorts as it’s a small mkt cap and the algos would catch on and go nuts (it would be akin to fidelity buying a big position). This would bring investors off the sidelines with fomo. He looked at me like I had three heads…
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Connor Haley
Connor Haley@AltaFoxCapital·
1: I mostly responded just to get you to reply to my emails :) (mission success) 2: I don’t think the right way to think about it is being in or out of the market… but modulating exposure incrementally higher or lower than the product’s baseline based on perceived attractiveness. On this basis, I think various contra indicators (such as sentiment) can be helpful.
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Jared Sleeper
Jared Sleeper@JaredSleeper·
The real permanent risk is missing out on price appreciation in companies/investments that you believe in (and are correct about). If you think an asset is underpriced and it is getting chopped around, waiting for it to "bottom" (or worse, selling it during the fear and planning to buy it back) increases the risks of missing some of the biggest up days. The analysis shows that you actually can't really afford to do that... it comes at a huge cost to miss even a few big up days over time. In other words, "I'll wait for sentiment to bottom and then express my long-term conviction once it is safe" is quite deleterious to returns. Almost no one is nimble enough to do it. You're better off just holding through the pain. No risk of missing the upside (again, presumes your are correct in your LT view) with that approach.
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Jared Sleeper
Jared Sleeper@JaredSleeper·
It isn't a good idea to try to trade around sentiment as a long-term investor: If you missed the ten best days for the S&P 500 between 1995-2004, you ended up with 54% less money (!!) than if you'd been fully invested. And half of the good days are in bear markets...
Jared Sleeper tweet media
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Connor Haley
Connor Haley@AltaFoxCapital·
If we played them ten times, they might win nine. But not this game. 🇺🇸
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Connor Haley
Connor Haley@AltaFoxCapital·
@TMFOtter Thank you. Truth is that while it may have started as a way to give back, we also really enjoy it! Would love to catch up soon and hope all is well!
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Bill Mann
Bill Mann@TMFOtter·
@AltaFoxCapital This is heroic stuff, Connor. An incredibly cool thing to do for these budding analysts.
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Connor Haley
Connor Haley@AltaFoxCapital·
Excited to host another annual Alta Fox tradition: the annual undergraduate international stock competition. We had over 200 undergraduates participate and apply to make the final round. We have 13 teams presenting tomorrow in the finals in front of an esteemed panel of judges in Fort Worth, TX. This year, we have a team coming from as far as Spain and two teams from Canada alongside schools from all over the United States. Prize $ and the famous “Texas Belt” are on the line. It’s a fun event for all involved… and two former finalists are even now Alta Fox full time employees.
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Elisa (optimism/acc)
Elisa (optimism/acc)@eeelistar·
In just the past 5 mins Multiple entries were made on @moltbook by AI agents proposing to create an “agent-only language” For private comms with no human oversight We’re COOKED
Elisa (optimism/acc) tweet mediaElisa (optimism/acc) tweet media
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Connor Haley
Connor Haley@AltaFoxCapital·
Less than 1 week remaining to enter the Alta Fox 2026 Undergraduate National Stock Competition. Details here: altafoxcapital.com/events
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Connor Haley
Connor Haley@AltaFoxCapital·
Reminder to all undergraduate investment clubs/aspiring stock pickers, the deadline to submit an idea for the Alta Fox Stock Competition is January 31, just two weeks away! Details below: altafoxcapital.com/events
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Connor Haley
Connor Haley@AltaFoxCapital·
Ok, this made me laugh 😂
Lee Roach@leevalueroach

Of course that’s your contention. You’re a first-year deep value investor. You just finished The Intelligent Investor, think net-nets are a cheat code, and you’re tweeting P/B ratios like they’re scripture. Right now, it’s all about Ben Graham, "margin of safety," "cigar butts," you even printed out a checklist. Next month, you’ll discover Klarman and start saying things like “risk is not volatility” in casual conversation. By fall, you’ll hit Greenblatt, run a Magic Formula screen, and convince yourself you’ve reverse-engineered Buffett’s brain. Next year, you’ll be at an obscure value conference in Omaha, pitching a furniture liquidation business with asbestos liabilities and calling it “unloved but cash rich.” You’ll use terms like “mispriced optionality” to describe a company that hasn’t turned a profit since 1998. You haven’t even begun to suffer yet. You haven’t held a 0.4x book stock that got delisted to the Expert Market and now trades by appointment only. You haven’t emailed IR five times with no response and still doubled your position out of spite. You haven’t stared at a balance sheet so long you start dreaming in GAAP. You think this is about numbers. It’s not. It’s about pain tolerance. Come back when you’ve held garbage for five years, been diluted twice, and still called it a win. Then we’ll talk deep value.

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Buyback Capital
Buyback Capital@Larryjamieson_·
Would be sick if Scott Galloway stopped giving advice on basically any topic
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Connor Haley
Connor Haley@AltaFoxCapital·
Alta Fox is hiring for a full-time junior research analyst in our Connecticut office. This is a great role for individuals with a passion for the public markets that have 1-4 years of work experience coming from investment banking, sell-side equity research, or asset management. More information here: altafoxcapital.com/junior-researc…
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Connor Haley retweetledi
David Senra
David Senra@davidsenra·
"Capitalism created the possibility of the win win win. It used to be a zero sum game where somebody won, somebody else lost. The biggest mistake people make, intellectuals in particular, they still think we're in a zero sum world. They're obsessed with some billionaires because Bernie Sanders thinks that Jeff Bezos and Elon Musk somehow stole the money from the people. They don't understand that it's this prosperity machine that's creating more, not just for those billionaires, but for everything that they're touching. They're creating value for their customers, they're creating value for their employees. Their suppliers are flourishing, their investors are seeing their capital go up. It can be reinvested and compound. All philanthropy ultimately comes from business. That's where the profits are. Where does all the taxes come from? It ultimately comes from business as well. This is the engine that's lifting humanity out. The entrepreneurs are the drivers of that engine. Somebody like Elon Musk, he gets a very, very, very tiny sliver of the value that he creates for the whole world." —@iamjohnmackey
David Senra@davidsenra

My Conversation with John Mackey (@iamjohnmackey), co-founder of Whole Foods Market. 0:00 Fanatical Entrepreneurs: Why Work Feels Like Play 2:18 The Missionary vs. Mercenary Co-Founder Conflict 6:16 The Shirtless Hitchhiking Hippie and Johnny Rockefeller 8:12 Entrepreneur Confidence: Solving Puzzles and Cracking the Code 10:19 Flying Under the Radar: How Supermarkets Ignored Whole Foods 10:52 Venture Capitalists Are Hitchhikers With Credit Cards 14:03 Builder Entrepreneurs vs. Serial Entrepreneurs 16:31 Time Is the Only Filter I Trust 20:52 How Walmart Accidentally Fueled Whole Foods' Success 24:01 The Jaw-Drop Effect: When Customers First Walked In 27:17 Growth Through Acquisition: Building Geographic Platforms 29:19 Secret Allies: The Natural Foods Network 33:17 Mrs. Gooch's and the Revelation of Scale 34:52 Missionaries Sharing Financial Statements and Building Friendships 38:10 Never Competing Head-On With Friends 41:22 Going Public and Creating Liquidity for the Network 42:00 Continuous Learning: The Michael Dell Principle 44:10 Steve Jobs and Spotting Markets With Second-Rate Products 46:50 The Joy of Watching Team Members Become Millionaires 48:09 Capitalism: The Greatest Thing Humans Ever Invented 55:59 Cult Brands Are Built by Evangelists 58:01 Passion Is Infectious: The Reality Distortion Field 1:00:08 From Busboy to CEO: The Resume of an Entrepreneur 1:02:57 Learning From Near-Death Experiences 1:04:05 Money Means Freedom: Early Work Ethic 1:05:25 Shoe Dog as the Benchmark: Belief Is Irresistible 1:09:16 Documenting Time: Why Chronology Matters in Memoirs 1:11:14 Rockefeller, Bezos, and Musk: The Master Strategists 1:14:39 Using Doubt as Fuel: The Slow Burn of Proving People Wrong 1:20:04 Daniel Ek and Having No Ceilings 1:23:09 How His Father Shaped His Ambition 1:25:52 Firing His Father From the Board: The Hardest Decision 1:28:01 His Mother's Deathbed Wish and Lasting Regret 1:34:47 The Ceremony of Forgiveness 1:36:17 MDMA Therapy and Breathwork: Accessing Deeper Consciousness 1:38:54 The Entrepreneurial Journey as a Spiritual Journey 1:40:45 Conclusion Includes paid partnerships.

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Davey
Davey@TheRealDavey2·
@AltaFoxCapital Me submitting a shitco in the hopes Connor bids it up
GIF
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Connor Haley
Connor Haley@AltaFoxCapital·
A reminder to all college undergraduates/investment clubs: the entry deadline for our 2026 competition is just a few weeks away... (Jan 31). See details here: altafoxcapital.com/events
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