singhlosophy

426 posts

singhlosophy

singhlosophy

@singhlosophy

Boutique investor.

Katılım Ocak 2023
64 Takip Edilen592 Takipçiler
singhlosophy
singhlosophy@singhlosophy·
$RCKT better get FDA approval and respond with a huge move or a lot of money is going to be zeroed on these super heavily leaning call positions. 260% IV
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singhlosophy
singhlosophy@singhlosophy·
$TNXP each time I think it might be putting together a decent run, it's wiped almost immediately. Now trading a little over 6% off the 52 week lows. That's definitely not good. Management has a great history...
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singhlosophy
singhlosophy@singhlosophy·
$IBIO another biotwit furu favorite just got wiped out. Bag holders everywhere. Red on the year.
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singhlosophy
singhlosophy@singhlosophy·
$MBOT excellent news. The more adoption, the higher the multiple. The story continues to grow.
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singhlosophy
singhlosophy@singhlosophy·
Let's get this $BA gap fill to $190 so we can all long it back to $300
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singhlosophy
singhlosophy@singhlosophy·
There's a lot of people who have confused $ELVN with $ENLV today. But it shows how much of a degenerate they are when they can't even type the correct ticker before throwing around money.
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singhlosophy
singhlosophy@singhlosophy·
What a crappy deal for $TERN $MRK is a huge winner. Luckily I own both.
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singhlosophy
singhlosophy@singhlosophy·
I have no idea how big of a short or even if they held through this entire wipeout but this is a bear dream. $SLNO -54% or so I don't follow or care about this stock but it crossed my desk to give my read on it. x.com/i/status/19607…
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Scorpion Capital@ScorpionFund

1/2 $SLNO Soleno Therapeutics - Mgmt stock sales exhibit serious red flags. The speed and magnitude of stock dumping within days of FDA approval strikes us as rare and unusual, like many things w this company. Insiders appear a lot less bullish about their drug’s prospects than investors, based on our analysis of their trading behavior. Several elements signal, to us, an extreme haste to sell upon approval vs. waiting around for drug launch. We suspect that investors who bought into the equity offering in July at $85/share were unaware of the nature of these sales, and were thus played like fools. 1. Over two consecutive trading days starting on 03/27/25 (FDA approval was 3/26) we calculate that seven insiders collectively sold 859,163 shares for total net proceeds of $47.9 million. Please see disclosures at end. 2. After initially placing 300,000 shares into his 10b5-1 plan last September, CEO Bhatnagar *increased* his sell-down to 523,809 shares which reduced his holdings by 40%. $29mm proceeds. The regulatory and commercial heads reduced their holdings by ~65%. The commercial head had been at SLNO for only ~14 mos, so she strikes us as downright nervous about the near-term. 3. The lead independent director (Pauls) sold 90% of his holdings. He’s CEO of a rare disease company focused on respiratory diseases, so we presume he recognizes the gravity of pulmonary edema as an adverse effect. 4. The stock awards smack of self-serving behavior as the officers were loaded up with equity right before the NDA submission date and then cashed in $58 million worth of stock (gross) as soon as the process was completed just eight months later. The awards suggest to us a board/investor group fixed on incentivizing FDA approval vs. launch. In July 2024, the board awarded the six executive officers with a one-time performance stock award. The officers were issued a total of 1,195,000 shares with a combined market value of $58.1 million, with the CEO receiving 850,000 of them. For most officers, these shares would vest 25% *just two weeks later* on 08/01/24, which was weeks before the FDA accepted the Company’s NDA and granted priority review. Another 25% were to vest on the acceptance date, and 50% on the date the FDA approves the drug. It is remarkable that these awards were granted so late in the submission process, and that a quarter of these so-called performance shares vested almost immediately without any performance requirement. 5. The trading appears to have played fast and loose with the company’s own insider trading policy. The Company announced the FDA granted priority review of DCCR in late August 2024, and over the next two weeks Rule 10b5-1 plans were set up by CEO Bhatnagar, CFO Mackaness, SVP of Regulatory Hirano, and SVP of Clinical Operations Yen. These four plans covered a total of 579,115 shares which was almost 50% of the entire 12-persons insider group’s combined ownership at the time. Given that 10b5- 1 plans are required to “cool” for 90 days before they can start selling, the SLNO officers’ plans were timed to become effective just in advance of the 12/27/24 PDUFA date. But then the FDA announced an extension of the review period, and it set a new PDUFA date of 03/27/25. The CEO and CFO responded by terminating their Rule 10b5-1 plans in 1Q25 and they did not initiate new ones. They essentially removed the 10b5-1 shackles after presumably having further discussions with the FDA, and they appeared to have been ready and eager to sell as soon as VYKAT XR received the FDA’s blessing.

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singhlosophy
singhlosophy@singhlosophy·
If Microsoft released Windows 12 and removed all AI and Co-Pilot trash the stock would open at $500 tomorrow. $MSFT You need to recognize when what you're doing is simply not working. Sunk cost fallacy has wiped out so many people and companies.
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singhlosophy
singhlosophy@singhlosophy·
BTIG must be the most cocaine driven fund out there for biotechs. Every one of their price targets is some ridiculously high number 5x, 8x, 10x the current price. Or in $NRXP case: 12.5x
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singhlosophy
singhlosophy@singhlosophy·
$VZ never fails me. The options are always dirt cheap and have so much torque for a stock that doesn't move much.
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