sinner

@JavierBlas Any chance of Iran joining?

The foreign affairs ministers of Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Egypt are gathering in Islamabad today for urgent talks as they try to mediate between the US and Iran.

@TMTLongShort A high IQ person needs to be charming & likable enough to convince others of their opinion. Judging from his media appearances, Bessent is neither.

The reason I consistently post my mental gymnastics around this admin instead of just going back to what actually pays the bills (tech investing) and acceding that the admin is retarded is that I deeply believe if there is a single individual in a group that is high-IQ and opinionated (Bessent) it doesn’t matter how bombastic Trump is every high-level policy meeting will have Bessent piping up on why an idea is retarded. That effectively sets a floor on how retarded the strategy can be. Dumb people can still recognize when someone is smarter than them. If Bessent left the admin I’d just mea culpa and give up decoupling. Until then I look at this as similar to when there is a midwit boomer PM and a savant analyst. The PM will still make a lot of mistakes but the thesis behind each position will be highly complex because simple dumb ideas don’t survive first contact with someone high IQ.

@Jesse_Livermore @sonusvarghese Negotiations after one or both sides decide they've had enough. Doesn't seem like either are at their breaking point yet.

@sinnerbkk @sonusvarghese And what will be the exit criteria?

My guess as to how this proceeds: Trump walks away, "Mission Accomplished", leaves Strait as a problem for ROW. Iran tolls it, arguing the toll funds are needed to rebuild the country. But they are generous w/ deals and avoid tolling it to a point that provokes crisis or outrage.

@Jesse_Livermore @sonusvarghese "Limited" ground operations.

@sinnerbkk @sonusvarghese What alternative will US/Israel choose to go with?

@sonusvarghese @Jesse_Livermore This is the most market friendly outcome, but it's really hard to see the US and especially Israel accepting this.

Won’t be a problem for RoW as long as the oil flows, and a toll obviously paid to Iran Toll + Brent @ $80 & regular oil/gas flows better option than no toll + no oil/gas flows And RoW will live with an Iranian nuke as well, like it’s learned to live with NK/Pakistani nukes US (and especially Israel) will clearly not accept an Iranian nuke but from here on any military action will come with an Iranian veto of the global economy. Not going back to the pre 2/27 world

@EricBalchunas Most reasonable people don't worry about it coming back, they worry about how long it can take & secular bear markets.

You can simplify it even further: The U.S. stock market has a 100% perfect record of coming back from downturns to hit ATHs. This indisputable truth is the ultimate anxiety killer. Better than Xanax. Instantly renders all doomer columnists and economists powerless.

@neilksethi Up to 17% earnings growth for CY2026. Quite aggressive.

Goldman: The equity market decline has dragged the S&P 500 9% from its January record high, but the P/E multiple is already in "correction" territory. Surging oil prices, interest rates, and geopolitical uncertainty have collectively weighed on equity prices and valuations during the last few weeks. The S&P 500 P/E multiple on consensus forward 12-month EPS now registers 19x, 14% below its 22x level on January 27. While consensus earnings estimates typically lag share prices, forecasts for 2026 EPS have continued to rise during the sell-off, climbing by 3% during the past month

@PurpleDrink_LLC MAX LONG lmao

It’s honestly remarkable how shitty this call was

@endless_frank How did you go from "the war has quasi-ended & I'm now MAX long" to this in just 3 days? What's changed?

I don’t know how we get out of this with Iran without: 1. Securing the strait with our allies. 2. Which means unaliving at least half a million or more IRGC personnel. Iran is not opening the Strait for anyone other than a select few and that’s not politically acceptable unless some kind of deal is made with the U.S having to give up a big concession. This type of outcome is likely unacceptable by Trump or this whole thing was for nothing. If we go the route of force, it won’t happen fast enough for markets, so I’m beginning to accept the fact that the market is going lower. The 200 day is broken on every major index. We came back to test and failed, then gaped down today and couldn’t even attempt to close the gap today. Just feels like either a bear market is beginning or an imminent wipeout, unless of course some magic happens with talks, doubtful. And I don’t know if I believe any headline anymore until boats start ramping through the Strait of Hormuz and Iran is on record saying it’s open, and even then it would take me a few days to believe them. So can we just get this over with? Measured move is to 6000 on $SPX and maybe we overshoot.

Seems EVERYONE is expecting a bounce around the prior peak next week. Unless the news stop becoming worse, not sure what would catalyze this.

@citrini Really depends on the news doesn't it. If there's escalation it doesn't matter what the technicals say, we're not bouncing.

Likely going to put in a bottom on Monday…in the short term, at least.

@BarakRavid What he means is they're begging. There are no negotiations.

🚨וויטקוף בכנס כלכלי במיאמי: "יש לנו הארכה של הדדליין. אנחנו רואים בזה דבר חיובי מאוד. אנחנו מנהלים משא ומתן עם האיראנים. ייתכן שיש לנו הגדרה שונה למשא ומתן מזו שלהם. אבל אנחנו מדברים איתם. הצענו (להיפגש). אנחנו חושבים שיהיו פגישות השבוע. אנחנו בהחלט מקווים לכך. ספינות עוברות (במצר הורמוז) וזה סימן טוב. הנשיא רוצה הסכם שלום. אבל בלי לחץ לא מביאים אף אחד לשולחן. אנחנו מוכנים לפתור את זה באמצעים דיפלומטיים. אין העשרה. לא תהיה צפון קוריאה שנייה במזרח התיכון. יש לנו תוכנית בת 15 סעיפים על השולחן. אנחנו מצפים לתגובה מהאיראנים. זה יכול לפתור הכול."

@Acyn Definition of an egomaniac.

Trump: I hang out with losers because it makes be feel better. I hate guys that are very, very successful and you have to listen to their success stories. I like people that like to listen to my success.

@DannyDayan5 Agree. Or he could try to deceive the Iranians by conceding to their demands temporarily, relieving the pressure on oil & financial markets, then restarting the war in a few months. Highly unlikely that the Iranians would fall for it though.

Trump has tried the TACO route. It failed. You can’t paper a physical issue. So he’s trapped. Iran is not negotiating, and will not surrender. His only option left is to go scorched earth, whatever that means to him, and violently wrap this up quickly.

@idreesali114 Demands that Iran will never agree to.

DUBAI, March 27 (Reuters) - Gulf Arab states are telling the U.S. that any deal with Tehran should do more than end the war, and must permanently curb Iran's missile and drone capabilities and ensure global energy supplies are never again "weaponised", four Gulf sources said.

@acemoney21 Assuming 317 & 325 are 12-month forward EPS estimates? Don't you think they start to come down and lower your range?

I’ll tweet this again because I’m getting a few DMs about my view moving fwd You guys don’t understand. We are officially in next phase of this selloff. We’re done pricing the SoH disruption as an inflationary mess. We are now starting to price it as a recessionary mess. That

It's becoming increasingly likely that Trump will give the Iranians everything they want. That or he doubles down, crashes the market & commits political suicide.

@Mr_Derivatives Everyone is afraid to short. After all the fake TACOs, there is no energy left for bear market rallies.

$SPX I mean even the Tariffs Crash had a 5% DCB/BMR. We're just about at that -10% peak to trough threshold like in the Tariffs Crash. Also the distance between the price and the 200dma prior to the DCB/BMR is about the same. Bulls now or never to bounce this ish.

@JaguarAnalytics Does that open the strait?

Mr. President. You fucked up! But let me help you out to calm the nerves. Before Sunday night futures open, cancel all tariffs that you placed after SCOTUS went against you. All of it !! Then watch the market rip higher on narrative shift and forget about Iran.

@FirstSquawk For the thousandth time.

TRUMP SAYS IRAN IS INTERESTED IN MAKING A DEAL.