Sir Tys

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Sir Tys

Sir Tys

@SirTys

Katılım Mart 2011
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UtdDistrict
UtdDistrict@UtdDistrict·
🚨| José Mourinho loves Diogo Dalot as a potential back-up Right Back option for Real Madrid. [@diarioas]
UtdDistrict tweet media
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Sir Tys
Sir Tys@SirTys·
@Willow1628 @MWM76 I thought Scott presented the elevator pitch in relation to the financials very well
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Willow_CFA
Willow_CFA@Willow1628·
$ASTS "Our target of $1 billion in revenue is not a requirement to reach free cash flow breakeven; we expect to become free cash flow positive well before reaching that milestone."
Anp🅰️nman@spacanpanman

$ASTS: AST SPACEMOBILE SCOTT WISNIEWSKI SPEAKS AT JP MORGAN TMT CONFERENCE Bloomberg Transcript - Filler Words Removed Speakers: Scott Wisniewski – President & Chief Strategy Officer, AST SpaceMobile Sebastiano Petti – Telecom, Cable, and Satellite Analyst, J.P. Morgan Sebastiano Petti: Good afternoon, everyone. I am Sebastiano Petti, and I cover the telecom, cable, and satellite space here at J.P. Morgan. I would like to welcome Scott Wisniewski, President and Chief Strategy Officer of AST SpaceMobile. Scott, thanks for joining us. Scott Wisniewski: Thank you for having me. Sebastiano Petti: Let's start by zooming out. As we sit here in mid-2026, with BlueBirds launching, commercial service activation approaching, and the government pipeline accelerating, where are you spending most of your time as President and Chief Strategy Officer? More broadly, what are your two to three highest priority objectives over the next 18 months as you transition from an R&D and manufacturing focus into a scaled, revenue-generating operating company? Scott Wisniewski: AST SpaceMobile was founded about a decade ago around the direct-to-device opportunity. That is our entire strategy. We build our own satellites, operate them, and sell capacity on them. At our core, we are a direct-to-device pure play. Over the years, when telling our equity story, people always asked three questions: Does it work? Can you fund it? How big will the market be? Those are traditional private company questions that we faced even as a public company, but we retired those risks between 2023 and 2025. This year, we are focused on traditional scaling and growth. Our two primary priorities are: Network Deployment: The vast majority of our team is focused on deployment to generate revenue in 2026, 2027, and beyond. Building the Market: This is a brand-new service at the heart of connectivity. We can provide better coverage than any terrestrial footprint by its very nature. Our focus is making connectivity work for our mobile network operator (MNO) partners and ultimately for the consumer mass market. Sebastiano Petti: Let's address the news from last week. AT&T, Verizon, and T-Mobile announced a proposed joint venture to extend mobile connectivity using satellite-based direct-to-device (D2D) technologies. AST SpaceMobile issued a statement commending the announcement. What does this mean for you in practice? Does it change your commercial positioning with the carriers, and does it accelerate or complicate your path forward? Scott Wisniewski: We highly value our carrier relationships. Everything we do—our business structure, technology, and go-to-market strategy—is focused on improving connectivity for mobile network operators. We built our technology and network stack with the Radio Access Network (RAN) on the ground so operators maintain control. We share their spectrum, though we also have our own spectrum now. This approach has led to partnerships with nearly 60 operators globally, representing approximately 3 billion subscribers. Strategic investors make up 15% of our cap table, including AT&T, Verizon, Vodafone, Google, American Tower, Bell Canada, Telus, and Rakuten. We pride ourselves on being the partner of choice, positioning this as a growth area for them rather than a vendor-style cost center. Two years ago, we brought Verizon into our network alongside our historical partner, AT&T. We view this new joint venture announcement in the same vein: it is about how US operators organize around a major strategic growth and innovation opportunity. We are supportive because it expands the US market, and we will continue to push forward. Sebastiano Petti: Does this joint venture validate the market, and does it diminish the competitive moat around your controlled spectrum? Scott Wisniewski: Our strategy has always been to be carrier-neutral. While we developed some exclusivities early on with early investors, our long-term vision was always neutrality. This transition is simply happening sooner than expected in the US, which is positive. Regarding our moat, when evaluating Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellite constellations, we are on track to be the second to reach the finish line without going bankrupt. This is an incredibly challenging task. Over the last decade, we developed the plan and the technology, building the largest satellites ever deployed in low Earth orbit. We have the spectrum backing, the business model, first-mover advantage, and established partnerships. We were always prepared for competition. While there will be a healthy market over time, in the near, medium, and potentially 5-to-10-year term, this will be a high-growth market where we hold a leadership role. Sebastiano Petti: FCC Chairman Brendan Carr mentioned three scaled D2D providers today, following Amazon's announced agreement to purchase Globalstar. Has the tone of your conversations with operators changed since that announcement? Scott Wisniewski: No. Nearly every network operator globally wants to work with us. Those conversations have deepened and broadened every month as we have de-risked our approach. We are partnered with operators everywhere outside of China and Russia. Their main question remains: How soon can I offer service to my subscribers? Solving this problem is challenging and takes significant time to ramp up. While large players with scale may pursue this opportunity, we remain the partner of choice for operators. We are well-capitalized for our initial rollout, and our technology solution features the largest phased arrays ever deployed in low Earth orbit. That is a significant competitive moat. Sebastiano Petti: Turning to deployment, you are targeting approximately 45 satellites in orbit by year-end through a combination of Blue Origin and SpaceX. Your next launch of BlueBirds 8, 9, and 10 on a Falcon 9 is expected in mid-June. With New Glenn grounded following the recent upper-stage anomaly, how many launches do you need between now and December to hit that 45-satellite target? What is the margin of error if Blue Origin's return to flight slips? Scott Wisniewski: Our guidance of 45-plus satellites in orbit provides full commercial service in our initial target markets, including the US. We reiterated this target even after losing a satellite on a prior launch. LEO networks offer great resiliency; we currently have production through satellite 33 underway at our factory and shipped two more satellites to Cape Canaveral yesterday. While we experienced a launch anomaly last month, we will return to the launch pad next month in a 60-day turnaround, which highlights our launch-vehicle-agnostic strategy. Our satellites are designed to fit any launch vehicle. Two years ago, we established a resilient launch plan across Blue Origin, SpaceX, and ISRO. To meet our year-end target, the math is straightforward. We can fit two to three times more satellites on a Blue Origin rocket, which is why they are our largest launch partner. We need a handful of Blue Origin flights and a handful of Falcon 9 or equivalent flights. If the timeline slips by a couple of months, it does not materially impact the net present value (NPV) of the company. The launch cadence is moving forward, and being vertically integrated with multiple launch partners gives us high confidence. Sebastiano Petti: Regarding your launch-vehicle-agnostic approach, how much flexibility do you have with United Launch Alliance's Vulcan rocket? Can they absorb more of your capacity, or will that take time? Scott Wisniewski: We maintain relationships with all major heavy-launch providers globally. Beyond our large contracts with Blue Origin and SpaceX, and our recent launch with ISRO, we have signed other agreements that haven't yet been assigned firm launch dates. Having this flexibility de-risks our deployment plan. We are comfortable with our current contracted launches and the additional ones we will secure for later in 2027. We launch with SpaceX in 30 days and are optimistic about Blue Origin's upcoming return to flight. Sebastiano Petti: Moving to manufacturing, you have disclosed phased arrays through BlueBird 28 and advanced assembly through BlueBird 33. At a production rate of roughly six fully assembled satellites per month, is manufacturing now the easiest part of the equation, or do yield testing and composite structure challenges still create quarter-to-quarter variability? Scott Wisniewski: Our manufacturing capabilities have matured significantly over the last 18 months. As we successfully raised capital over the past three years, we scaled our facilities continuously. We recently opened a new 100,000-square-foot facility in Midland, Texas, dedicated to producing "microns"—the active payloads on our satellites. Production yields are improving, though there is still progress to be made. Manufacturing a network of this scale is not easy, and it remains a core focus of the company, but our current capacity fully supports our rollout targets. Variations of a satellite or two per quarter are operational nuances rather than existential risks. We have successfully deployed seven satellites in low Earth orbit so far, meaning they have fully unfolded in space. As these are the largest commercial satellites ever deployed in LEO, maintaining a seven-for-seven success rate is a major achievement. Sebastiano Petti: The next New Glenn launch will carry four satellites, eventually ramping up to eight. Can you explain the engineering or regulatory factors involved in stacking these "tunicans" inside the fairing, and what the timeline looks like to reach fully stacked capacity? Scott Wisniewski: We expect to achieve full stacking configurations over the course of 2026. A key part of our launch-vehicle-agnostic strategy is a flexible design based on stackable components. We attach the bottom component to the second stage of the rocket and stack them vertically. If the stack becomes too tall, we reinforce the base units, but the mechanism is straightforward. This flexibility allows us to load three satellites into a Falcon 9, four to eight into a New Glenn, five into a Vulcan, two on an ISRO rocket, three on a Mitsubishi Heavy Industries vehicle, or five on an Ariane 6. There is a matching process with Blue Origin as they scale their performance plan. They have successfully landed two boosters across their last three New Glenn launches, which will support a rapid launch cadence into late 2026 and 2027. Beyond that, we will focus on standard vehicle upgrades and optimizing performance to maximize the yield of each launch. Sebastiano Petti: Shifting back to the commercial ecosystem, you have nearly 60 MNO partners covering 3 billion subscribers, with definitive agreements announced with AT&T, Verizon, STC, and others. Has the tenor of conversations changed now that you have FCC authorization, a funded balance sheet, and a demonstration of 100 Mbps speeds from orbit? Scott Wisniewski: Our relationships always started strong on the technology side because our system represents a highly efficient solution for operators. We can deploy a digital tower anywhere in their network across multiple frequencies simultaneously, allowing for dynamic network planning. We translated that technical alignment into our commercial go-to-market strategy, bringing operators into the tent as strategic investors. Securing C-suite alignment is vital for long-dated strategic initiatives that lack immediate quarterly payoffs. De-risking the business through capital, secured spectrum, proven technology speeds, and a partner-first approach has strengthened these dynamics. The regulatory environment has also improved. We chose to flag our network in the US a few years ago based on the FCC's evolving stance on direct-to-device technology, which has paid off well. We received our full commercial authorization from the FCC a few weeks ago, creating positive network effects for our global partners as we work to bring them online. Sebastiano Petti: You mentioned expecting additional MNO agreements with "increasing velocity" through 2026. What is driving this acceleration in partner signings? Will this next wave of definitive agreements come from existing Memorandums of Understanding (MOUs) within your 50-plus partners, or from entirely new relationships? Scott Wisniewski: We have an extensive funnel of opportunities. While expanding our existing partnerships represents a massive win, there are still major telecom operators outside our current formal network that we expect to sign in the coming months. We have built a highly attractive proposition for operators that helps them succeed, introduces innovative technology, and brings spectrum assets to the table. We have spent the last 12 to 18 months scaling our commercial and telecom operations teams alongside our space engineering organization. As commercial service approaches, MNOs are factoring us into their budget cycles for 2027. Furthermore, our focus is broadband-first, delivering 100 Mbps directly to a standard smartphone. Comparing early text-based or emergency satellite services to our broadband capability is not just apples and oranges; it is apples and aircraft carriers. They are entirely different tiers of service. Sebastiano Petti: Turning to your financial trajectory, you reiterated 2026 revenue guidance of $150 million to $200 million, with Q1 coming in just shy of $15 million. You also described the 2027 revenue opportunity as approaching $1 billion. How much of that 2027 target is underpinned by existing contracts and minimum commitments versus commercial service activation and subscriber adoption? Scott Wisniewski: Our commercial model targets both the consumer mass market and the US government. The US government opportunity, driven by programs like the Golden Dome project, aligns perfectly with our timeline. Over the next one to three years, we expect our revenue split to be roughly 50/50 between commercial and government contracts, though either side could outperform. Our current pre-commercial revenue involves executing on 10 different use cases for the US government across three primary contracts, while helping commercial operators deploy the necessary ground infrastructure. We hit the high end of our revenue guidance last year and expect to grow sequentially each quarter to achieve our $150 million to $200 million guidance for 2026. For 2027, the opportunity remains a balanced mix of government and commercial revenue. Regarding existing contracts, more than half of our remaining 2026 guidance is already in our contracted backlog, with the rest well-covered by our pipeline. For future years, we have secured $1.2 billion in cumulative, long-term, take-or-pay minimum revenue commitments. While these commitments represent a baseline portion of our total revenue opportunity, they demonstrate that operators are backing us with contractual guarantees tied to getting our network into orbit. Sebastiano Petti: oes commercial service revenue contribute meaningfully in 2026, or is that primarily an upside case for 2027? Scott Wisniewski: The $1.2 billion backlog is spread over the life of our contracts, which include two-, five-, six-, and ten-year agreements. It is distributed relatively evenly across those terms, so you can expect a baseline contribution of over $100 million annually right out of the gate. Sebastiano Petti: On the government side, you have described use cases spanning tactical communications, non-communications capabilities, Golden Dome, and HALO Europa, representing significant annual revenue potential. Where are you currently in the government contracting cycle? Are you still in the testing phase, or are you approaching an inflection into multi-year programs of record? Scott Wisniewski: We are conducting in-orbit testing with our active satellites for multiple revenue-generating US government opportunities. Government contracts typically progress through Phase 1, Phase 2, and Phase 3 awards before transitioning into a program of record, which delivers recurring revenue over a five-to-ten-year period. We are pursuing programs of record across 10 distinct use cases. Because our satellites feature the largest phased arrays ever deployed in low Earth orbit, we can perform non-communications applications, such as radar, that smaller satellites cannot achieve. Our network is dual-use, meaning commercial satellites can support defense applications, though we can also build modified, government-only satellites if required. This occurs against a backdrop of historic space defense spending, with the Space Force budget in front of Congress reaching approximately $70 billion. For initiatives like Golden Dome, there is significant pressure to deploy capabilities quickly. Meeting those tight timelines requires having started development five years ago, which we did. Sebastiano Petti: Let’s pivot to spectrum, which is foundational to your long-term value. You hold 45 MHz of L-band spectrum in North America and 60 MHz of S-band priority rights internationally, layered on top of 1,100 MHz of shared MNO spectrum globally. What is the activation timeline for your controlled bands, what regulatory approvals remain outstanding, and what capital is required to bring them online commercially? Scott Wisniewski: Spectrum is a unique investment asset because it is scarce, but activating new bands traditionally requires significant capital—often $5 billion to $10 billion for ground equipment. Our strategy with acquiring the L-band lease and pursuing S-band rights works because we were already building the satellite constellation, making our marginal cost to add these frequencies relatively low. This allowed us to move quickly before the direct-to-device market grew highly competitive. We secured an 80-year lease for 45 MHz of L-band spectrum in the United States and Canada, which represents the majority of available L-band capacity in the world's most valuable market. This gives us an anchor position similar to what SpaceX acquired from EchoStar. The final step for this asset is regulatory approval from the FCC. FCC Chairman Carr publicly noted that AT&T already has access to this spectrum via our agreement, and the approval rests with the Commission. In terms of device integration, these bands will begin appearing widely in new smartphones starting in 2027. We will deploy the network infrastructure to support it, pairing our controlled frequencies with our partners' shared spectrum. Our foundational strategy relies on a revenue-share model using the operators' spectrum, giving us access to 1,100 MHz of low- and mid-band frequencies. Over time, layering in our controlled frequencies will allow us to deliver superior service, support more subscribers, and maximize the value of our direct-to-device platform. Sebastiano Petti: Does the joint venture announced by the three major US carriers accelerate the proliferation of compatible devices within the domestic ecosystem? Scott Wisniewski: We are already on that trajectory. Device manufacturers want to enable the frequencies that their MNO partners support to drive phone sales. The joint venture reinforces elements we were already facilitating, such as device availability and spectrum pooling—which was the core rationale for why we brought AT&T and Verizon together on our network two years ago. It helps at the margin, but the ecosystem was already in a strong position. Sebastiano Petti: Should investors expect AST SpaceMobile to remain opportunistic regarding future spectrum acquisitions, whether L-band, S-band, or otherwise? Scott Wisniewski: We are very pleased with our current spectrum assets. Securing our Mobile Satellite Services (MSS) spectrum was a major milestone. We will continue to look at S-band opportunities internationally where the regulatory framework makes sense. While L-band is heavily utilized worldwide—making our North American lease incredibly valuable—S-band remains largely underutilized globally. For example, our partner in Saudi Arabia acquired S-band spectrum that we look forward to activating. Our primary approach will remain partnership-driven; investors should not expect us to engage in expensive spectrum acquisitions. Sebastiano Petti: You have a European joint venture with Vodafone called Satellite Connect Europe. What is the latest update on that initiative? Scott Wisniewski: Vodafone is one of our largest partners and earliest investors, having invested three times and holding over $1 billion of our stock. We maintain a five-year mutual exclusivity agreement with them across Europe and Africa. We formed our European joint venture to build out ground infrastructure in a pooled configuration. This structure manages close international borders effectively and positions us for regional spectrum allocations. The joint venture has been operating for about a year with a dedicated European management team of roughly 20 people. I sit on the board alongside another representative from AST and two from Vodafone. At Mobile World Congress two months ago, the team signed up approximately 10 new partners that they are actively developing. Sebastiano Petti: Let’s conclude with your path to profitability. You ended the first quarter with approximately $3.5 billion in cash and stated that you are fully funded for over 100 satellites with no plans for additional convertible debt. How should investors think about the glide path to free cash flow breakeven, and do you need to reach that $1 billion revenue target in 2027 to achieve it? Scott Wisniewski: Our financial model is highly attractive. Building a global satellite constellation has been an industry ambition since the 1990s, but once you achieve operational scale with a high-demand service, the economics are compelling. After upfront capital expenditure (CapEx) to deploy the network, future investments transition into a highly predictable maintenance CapEx stream over a seven-to-ten-year satellite lifecycle. The wholesale satellite industry historically generates EBITDA margins in excess of 80% when functioning efficiently. We have a fixed operating expense (OpEx) base of approximately $300 million to $400 million per year. Our target of $1 billion in revenue is not a requirement to reach free cash flow breakeven; we expect to become free cash flow positive well before reaching that milestone. Our focus is structuring the market correctly to capture the full value we deliver to consumers and government clients while managing our growth CapEx efficiently. Sebastiano Petti: That brings us exactly to time. Thank you, Scott, for joining us.

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Sir Tys
Sir Tys@SirTys·
@MWM76 Value of their assets (spectrum (even leased given length), IP, cash, signed contracts provides a floor value at or around current levels - certainly within $15 or so. Compare that to a potential upside of $2600 and a $trillion valuation.. risk reward insane at these levels
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MWM
MWM@MWM76·
$ASTS I don't know how anyone can be short this name. You are an idiot for not being long...
Sir Tys@SirTys

@MWM76 They confirmed on the last earnings call they expect government revenue annually to be in the billions with an “s”… they are speaking confidently about this - Scott today again talking about Golden Dome and the budget for it with the urgency for it

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Sir Tys
Sir Tys@SirTys·
@MWM76 And again confirming (he did same on earnings call) that we’ve been working the the government on this for five years… also interesting nugget today they suggested they could build government only sats… I know current ones are dual use - but that would make sense for major deal
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MWM
MWM@MWM76·
@SirTys That is a massive statement. Gov't contracts must be massive if that is true!
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Sir Tys
Sir Tys@SirTys·
@MWM76 They confirmed on the last earnings call they expect government revenue annually to be in the billions with an “s”… they are speaking confidently about this - Scott today again talking about Golden Dome and the budget for it with the urgency for it
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Sir Tys@SirTys·
@SpacBobby @thekookreport Consistent with management expressing their expectation for billionS in revenue from government contracts during the last earnings call
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SpacBobby
SpacBobby@SpacBobby·
$ASTS - Bro, my head is spinning....🤯 "We expect AST will generate $2.4 to $4.4 billion in annual revenue from worldwide military and first responder opportunities in the intermediate term." - Hennessy Funds hennessyfunds.com/insights/compa…
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Sir Tys
Sir Tys@SirTys·
@spacanpanman Do you think Vodafone would be open to them becoming a partner? A customer, for sure. But maybe if they contributed ££££ to Sat co. Vodafone have been an early partner and shareholder of AST and not sure they would give up that advantage without commercial motivation
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Anp🅰️nman
Anp🅰️nman@spacanpanman·
$ASTS: The next logical step is for Deutsche Telekom to join AST SpaceMobile’s Satellite Connect Europe Joint Venture
Anp🅰️nman@spacanpanman

$ASTS: Interesting comments from Deutsche Telekom CEO and the new T-Mobile CEO regarding Starlink this past week. Maybe AST SpaceMobile working with T-Mobile and Deutsche Telekom isn't so far fetched. Once upon a time, I thought it was an impossibility that Verizon would join AT&T as a commercial customer... T-Mobile's Starlink exclusivity ends this summer. 1) Deutsche Telekom is open to working with other direct-to-cell service providers in Europe if they can compete with Starlink. 2) T-Mobile will NOT enable Starlink to become a MVNO. If Starlink has ambitions to become a wireless carrier, it will need access to lowband cellular spectrum. Deutsche Telekom CEO, The Information: “SpaceX, the Starlink people, are very aware about the political role and the power we have as a brand in Europe,” Höttges said. He added that Deutsche Telekom will “absolutely” work with other direct-to-cell service providers in Europe if they can compete with Starlink. (Deutsche Telekom owns a majority stake in T-Mobile U.S., the only U.S. mobile network to offer Starlink cell service.) Höttges also described the financial size of the Starlink deal as “pretty small” and said Deutsche Telekom does not plan to invest in the SpaceX initial public offering. “I’m not naive. I know this is dancing with the tiger,” Höttges said of working with Musk. T-Mobile CEO, Morgan Stanley Investor Conference: "Look, our philosophy on MVNOs is really clear. We get into an MVNO when we think there's an incremental TAM to go after, and that could be because of a specific target population, like an ethnic group, or it could be because of a specific channel play and distribution, which is why we did the MVNO with the cable players. It's not clear to me how a partnership with Starlink from an MVNO perspective would fit into those criteria."

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Sir Tys
Sir Tys@SirTys·
@spacanpanman The Europe JV, is I think, a 50:50 equity split of the company with Vodafone. Vodafone then benefit from other MNO’s use of Sat Co in line with AST. I think!
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Anp🅰️nman
Anp🅰️nman@spacanpanman·
$ASTS: Where have I seen this joint venture structure before? Oh right Satellite Connect Europe JV = Vodafone, Orange, Telefonica, CK Hutchinson and Sunrise powered by AST SpaceMobile Satellite Connect USA JV = AT&T, Verizon and T-Mobile powered by ... AST SpaceMobile
Anp🅰️nman tweet media
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Sir Tys
Sir Tys@SirTys·
@KashRamki Their economic model remains a little uncertain to me which is why I only have a starter position
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Kash
Kash@KashRamki·
After six months of thorough due diligence on $NUAI—reviewing filings and engaging directly with management—I went all-in on this hidden gem. The company's behind-the-meter strategy is the way forward in today's power- and compute-constrained world. If you believe in management's plan to sign an investment-grade hyperscaler in the coming months, there is little doubt that this company is worth $3–5 billion. Yet it trades as a highly speculative small cap, currently valued at around $255M. Therein lies the opportunity. Most on X know me as a long-time bull on $IREN, a company I've been all-in on for the better part of 2.5 years. So this portfolio shift isn't one I take lightly. For the doubters, $IREN is, pound-for-pound, the best business in the AI HPC space today. In fact, if Mr. Market hadn't given me such a wonderful entry point into $NUAI, I would still be all-in on $IREN. The investment thesis: While both companies provide energy-intensive AI infrastructure, $NUAI's primary thesis is its valuation—materially below peers pursuing comparable opportunities. Few companies, if any, focus exclusively on behind-the-meter power delivery, sourcing directly at generation sites to achieve lower costs, higher efficiency, and independence from grid interconnection delays. This model makes the company highly attractive to prospective tenants amid rising demand for reliable, scalable power in AI compute. Like in most power markets today, the past 18 months in $ERCOT have seen substantial challenges for large-load grid interconnections. Datacenter-driven demand expanded ERCOT's queue from approximately 63 GW at end-2024 to over 230 GW by late 2025. The prior sequential study process resulted in repeated restudies, modeling inconsistencies, extended timelines, and uncertainty. Disguised as an attempt to help with those problems, ERCOT’s new batch process plans to group qualifying large loads for coordinated transmission studies to improve efficiency, consistency, and system reliability. For grid-dependent projects, this adds procedural layers and timing considerations during a period of high demand. Some would say this is a major step back for allocating capital to ERCOT. Meanwhile, $NUAI's behind-the-meter approach circumvents these grid-related hurdles—no queue participation, no restudies, no batch constraints. Power is provided directly to tenants through dedicated on-site power plants. $NUAI's first 3 GW will use gas-fired technologies, giving the company and its tenants unparalleled speed to market. $NUAI management expects to announce the first phase of TCDC (Texas Critical Data Centers) within the coming months. From there, the odds of ramping up quickly to 1 GW remain high. Management has stated repeatedly that they are in advanced discussions with multiple hyperscalers. It's worth noting that previously guided timelines have slipped, but the company has announced partnerships that shore up uncertainty around the desired outcome. Assuming management can get $NUAI to the promised land, we should see its market cap shoot up to $3–5 billion in very short order, finally bringing it in line with peers. That's a 12–20x in a matter of months. If management continues to execute on its NM site and others, NUAI could conceivably reach a valuation of $20bn—almost 100x from here—but we'll leave that for another day. The downside: What if the company isn't able to deliver on a hyperscaler tenant? Like any good investor, I am laser-focused on downside protection, and that's where $NUAI is a no-brainer. TCDC is a 438-acre site fit for a 1 GW AI datacenter. Located across the street from two large power plants owned by the likes of $VST and $FANG, and with three different natural gas pipelines serving the site, TCDC is the equivalent of what is called a “powered land” site. These days, powered land is valued at approximately $500,000 per MW, implying roughly $500 million in embedded land/power value for TCDC. With $NUAI's market cap hovering around $255 million, the land value alone exceeds the enterprise value, with the operations, partnerships, and development pipeline—including its 3,500-acre New Mexico site—providing additional upside. I describe the range of outcomes as “heads I win big, tails I still win.” The noise: The past few months have seen the company come under attack on several fronts. The most prominent is a civil complaint from the New Mexico Attorney General involving allegations related to oil-well responsibilities transferred through entities. The company has described the claims as unfounded, with no prior state engagement, and intends to defend vigorously. Maximum potential settlement exposure, based on disclosures and precedents, remains below $10 million. Having diligenced this with my own network of seasoned litigation attorneys, this is a nothingburger. Portfolio sizing: Concentrated sizing suits my investment approach: when extensive research identifies strong fundamentals, a clear competitive advantage, and attractive risk-adjusted upside, I allocate accordingly. I’ve taken over a decade to get here, so this is not a good idea for the vast majority of investors. To be clear, I don't go all-in often, but I do run a concentrated portfolio of 2–4 stocks. The past few years have been very different because the big winners have been sitting in plain sight. The first all-in idea in the past few years was $VST, a power production play, followed by $IREN, a power-meets-AI compute play. At their core, both are infrastructure companies within my circle of competence. $NUAI is just the next evolution of this very same AI infrastructure thesis. It's not every day you see 10-to-100 baggers sitting there in plain sight. And yet, here we are. $NUAI presents a highly asymmetric opportunity in energy-constrained AI infrastructure, with the valuation deeply disconnected from the company's intrinsic value. Do your own research—this involves risks inherent to early-stage development and sector dynamics. Not investment advice; simply outlining my allocation rationale.
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Tim Farrar
Tim Farrar@TMFAssociates·
The AT&T/VZ/TMUS JV for D2D is clearly designed to present a united front in any negotiation to make use of Starlink's next gen system. But it emphasizes multiple players and is in addition to existing arrangements about.att.com/story/2026/new…
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Sir Tys
Sir Tys@SirTys·
@AlexfromBabylon Their starlink exclusivity period ends in July if I’m not mistaken… getting their 🦆 in a row
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Sir Tys
Sir Tys@SirTys·
@redrum_2001 Echoes of Sat Co in Europe.. T Mobile joining the party… AST commenting - nothing from Starlink or Amazon.. Pooling spectrum.. exciting!
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Sir Tys
Sir Tys@SirTys·
@CatSE___ApeX___ Then the Buffett Coke theory of pricing power comes into play. What does a 5% increase matter here or there
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REDRUM 🅰️
REDRUM 🅰️@redrum_2001·
$ASTS - 🚨New episode featuring @JacobKeeton20 and @NotDarkYet8 is live on the AST SpaceMobile Podcast! 🎙️ Space Stocks Weekly - AST SpaceMobile ✅ Satellite Radar Capabilities ✅ ASIC vs FPGA Manufacturing ✅ Defense Department Contract Speculation ✅ SpaceMobile Launch Cadence ---------- Original audio sourced from the X Space "Space Stocks Weekly" hosted by @JacobKeeton20. Follow him on X for live weekly updates on the space industry. It also features @NotDarkYet8 who talks AST SpaceMobile. ---------- The latest episode dives into the strategic revelations from the AST SpaceMobile Q1 earnings call, specifically focusing on the shipment of Bluebirds 8 through 10 and the mid-June launch window with SpaceX. The conversation explores the technical hurdles of satellite integration and the manufacturing inflection point at the Micron facility, where production is scaling to meet global demand. A major highlight of this episode is the shift in narrative toward military and government use cases. The team discusses the explicit mention of radar capabilities and signals intelligence, exploring how the SpaceMobile phased array functions as a receiver for remote sensing. This dual-use potential suggests a high valuation floor supported by Department of Defense interests and missile tracking capabilities built directly into the birds. Technically, the episode breaks down the transition from FPGA to ASIC chips, using the analogy of a Swiss Army knife versus a Japanese chef knife. This shift is expected to drastically improve power efficiency and simultaneous user capacity for the Block 2 satellites. Furthermore, the discussion touches on the successful validation of call handoffs between satellites, a feature that currently distinguishes the SpaceMobile service from Starlink's direct-to-cell efforts. Finally, the episode shifts focus to the broader launch industry, including the status of the Neutron rocket and the potential impact of FAA investigations on the New Glenn launch schedule. Analysts and investors weigh in on the importance of annual revenue over quarterly fluctuations, emphasizing the long-term potential of the 60+ mobile network operator partnerships that cover billions of subscribers worldwide. youtu.be/3p-T5kHmI1s
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Sir Tys
Sir Tys@SirTys·
@ASTS_Investors What multiple to ascribe to that stream?! Analysts and retail valuation models (to my mind at least) vastly underestimate the potential quantum and quality of this revenue stream
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ASTS Investors 🅰️
ASTS Investors 🅰️@ASTS_Investors·
AST SPACEMOBILE EXPECT SIGNIFICANT GOVERNMENT CONTRACTS IN THE NEXT 6 MONTHS 👀 $ASTS
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Sir Tys
Sir Tys@SirTys·
@thekookreport Abel talking with pride about how valuable they are to the US government - couldn’t help but think during this part of a potential government investment
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