MWM
136.3K posts

MWM
@MWM76
Daytrader not a Professional, do not take my posts as financial advice. I play short term options for large % gains. I swing Big.




SpaceX will be one of the most important IPOs of my lifetime. Yes the valuation is aggressive but few companies sit directly across three massive themes at the same time in space infrastructure, global connectivity & AI compute. Three trillion-dollar themes under one ticker.


A message for my $TSLA friends eyeing the SpaceX IPO $SPCX. I traded $TSLA for years. I know the community. I know the excitement when Elon takes something public. But before you chase @SpaceX at $1.75 trillion, read the S-1 carefully. SpaceX doesn't need your money. They raised at $800B in private tenders six months ago. They could raise $50B privately tomorrow with a phone call. This IPO isn't about raising capital. It's about giving insiders liquidity. 95% of @SpaceX shares are held by insiders. Only 5% will be publicly traded. Insiders hold $1.66 trillion in paper wealth they currently can't sell. The IPO changes that. And they've structured it so insiders can sell BEFORE the standard 180-day lock-up expires. @SpaceX built in early release provisions -- after the first earnings report, insiders can sell up to 20% of their shares. They're also reserving 30% of IPO shares for retail. Ask yourself -- when has Wall Street ever given retail the best seats in the house unless retail was the product? 100x revenue. $4.9B net loss. xAI burning $6.4B a year while @Starlink subsidizes it. This isn't 2020 Tesla at 20x revenue with a clear path to profitability. This is a different risk profile. Now here's the part I want you to actually consider. SpaceX's S-1 sizes their satellite-to-phone business (Starlink Mobile) at a $740 billion TAM. Their Connectivity segment does $11.4B at 63% EBITDA margins. Those numbers are real and impressive. But buried in the S-1, @SpaceX names their D2D competitor: $ASTS . @AST_SpaceMobile $40 billion market cap. Not $1.75 trillion. $40 billion. Here's what $40B buys you: 98.9 Mbps proven from space to unmodified phones (SpaceX does 3-5 Mbps) The only low-band D2D spectrum access on Earth (indoor coverage SpaceX can't match) All three US carriers forming a joint venture around ASTS technology Google invested $358M their largest public equity holding AT&T, Verizon, Vodafone as equity investors $3.5B cash, $1.2B contracted backlog 3,900 patents, custom ASIC in production Three satellites launching on a Falcon 9 next month 60 carrier partners covering 3 billion subscribers @SpaceX at $1.75T is pricing perfection across rockets, satellites, AI, and Mars. One miss and it corrects hard. $ASTS at $40B is pricing uncertainty in a $740B market where the technology is already proven and the carriers have already chosen sides. The Tesla community knows what it feels like to find a mispriced stock before the world catches on. $TSLA at $30 pre-split wasn't obvious to anyone except the people who did the work. $ASTS at $106 in a $740B market with 33x faster speeds than SpaceX D2D, a carrier JV, and institutional discovery just beginning -- that's the same kind of setup. So before you throw money at a $1.75T IPO where insiders are building exit ramps, maybe look at the $40B competitor they named in their own filing. Not financial advice. Just math. $ASTS 🛰️ cc @SawyerMerritt @unusual_whales @DanBTC916

Good start. Closed in supply right at the 50 SMA and volume point of control. IF the above is correct, we should flip this to support and rocket to $105 next. $ASTS



$ASTS: Imagine selling a generational company at the cusp of commercialization

Bye-bye 👋

This man robbed a bank for $1, sat down and waited for the police, just to get free healthcare in prison In 2011 a man named Richard James Verone walked into a RBC Bank in Gastonia, North Carolina Handed the teller a note demanding $1 One dollar Then sat down in the lobby and waited calmly for police to arrive He was 59. No job. No insurance. A growth on his chest. Two ruptured discs. Calculated that a federal conviction would guarantee him full medical coverage inside prison The judge sentenced him to 3 years He got the surgery He got the treatment He told reporters on the way out he had no regrets A 59 year old American man robbed a bank for $1 because it was cheaper than seeing a doctor



$ASTS 69% face ripper rally. May 5: $63 May 22: $107 Playing catch-up with 3x playback speed.








