S.S.L
6.8K posts

S.S.L
@slee7700
12+ years in Finance/Investment Fintech. Trading and investing the UK markets since 2012.....
Scotland Katılım Mayıs 2009
373 Takip Edilen275 Takipçiler

@slee7700 @AminXunofficial No, I don't have the best estimate for that. But the rig will stay even longer in the country (still on the third well at M&P, and they might be there longer than expected). For the negotiation part, we'll have to see how it plays out.
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10 months since the rig was cleared for departure for its first ever expedition in the EA region. 2 out of 3 wells done; both producing, 3rd is underway. All goes well, end of Q3 to Q4, Mnazibay could be done-perfect timing for CH-1 with the expected commissioning of the pipeline
Wilson Makembe@WilsonMakembe
JUST IN: The rig has arrived at M&P's Mnazibay gas field and is fully erected, with drilling activities to commence ASAP. The 3000HP rig was moved from Tanga Port to Msimbati, Mtwara, Tanzania, over 900km. The expedition looks at 3 new wells. 2026 just got 🔥🔥lit #HereweGo🇹🇿
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@WilsonMakembe @AminXunofficial Interesting take Wilson, appreciate the insight here. Do you have any expectations of how long this may take to negotiate? Given the rig timelines, 6 months max?
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@AminXunofficial That's more of an addendum than a dispute, as the issues of concern are more related to CAPEX & DRILLEX for the development. However, it can be sorted out (in some time, that's for sure) and reach a conclusion.
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@Littleboyblue75 @tom_the_bomb__ @TVR5AVCT @avacta If a "low ball" offer comes before the 6103 data, that would assume BP are interested in the platform which would then assume then like the data, and thus one would expect a budding war to ensue. I don't see SH's accepting a low ball offer unless funding/data outlook is poor.
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@Littleboyblue75 @tom_the_bomb__ @TVR5AVCT @avacta I think if we get some funding sorted in one way or another - deal/hcrx/nasdaq and a substantial valuation uplift, along with solid 5103 data, most holders would be nuts to then accept $1.5bn that would suggest they have no idea of the value of precision. #avct
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@Littleboyblue75 @tom_the_bomb__ @TVR5AVCT @avacta If the tech is as good as I think it is, £2.50 is a farce. The fact you say this (without any substance) tells me you are a frustrated SH. Put your emotions to one side and ask what it's potentially worth fully developed?
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@slee7700 @tom_the_bomb__ @TVR5AVCT @avacta What clout? If a bid landed tomorrow for 250p most SH would accept it. What is TVR5 gonna do about it with their sub 10% holding?
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@cashflow_king94 @ChewieWins I have more in my isa and wouldnt dream of launching it into this kind of product. madness. selling it as anything other than a hugely risky leveraged bet on semis is fraud.
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@ChewieWins Just showing the numbers of what is possible though.
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@Littleboyblue75 @tom_the_bomb__ @TVR5AVCT @avacta Not sure what to say to this LBB? They clearly have a large colelctive SH'ing and clout. How much who knows.
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@slee7700 @tom_the_bomb__ @TVR5AVCT @avacta Do you really believe they have the shareholding they state to have? You are going to believe an anonymous X account?
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@Littleboyblue75 @tom_the_bomb__ @TVR5AVCT @avacta This surely cannot be true?! As their collective SH hasn’t dropped materially....
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@tom_the_bomb__ @TVR5AVCT @avacta Should be quite high as they did a poll a while ago for a £2 TO and anyone who voted yes was kicked out the group. From my understanding half the group voted yes 🤣
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@TVR5AVCT @avacta I would also bet that lurking in the shadows on here, are many many other shareholders who collectively hold the same % or more than the closed TVR5 group. Whilst you have clearly helped #avct, be careful about how you distance yourself from the rest, as you may need them soon.
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@Capt_Alsh Not surprised at the delays due to the past and how many years it's taken, but i am surprised as to the reason for the delays this time, given TPDC are literally building the pipeline for first gas as I type. Are you not?! #aex #aminex
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#AEX who's surprised?
"The Operator's proposed amendments include a significant reduction in the 2026 WP&B that will result in a delay to the production of first gas and the drilling of the Chikumbi-1 well."
lse.co.uk/rns/ruvuma-ope…
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@AminXunofficial It's been 10+ years to get to here...should be used to waiting by now?!
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@ParadigmCoachi1 @Mike182035 @coughlin582 I'm not interested in valuation methodology here, it's easy to get to £10-30bn for #avct on diff metrics. I'm interested in buyout premiums paid for the sole reason that that's what the market goes on, Previous evidence. Hence us needing a £1-2bn mcap asap.
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@slee7700 @Mike182035 @coughlin582 You may well be right. We're using different valuation methodologies. And current SP is fairly laughable, given what has recently been confirmed with their platform. Held back by poor funding strategy in the past, and no meaningful income. But I don't want CC to deal on the cheap
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#AVCT 1/n
Hi PC
Change £ to $ and thats pretty much where my thinking is too long term
Where I think we will start diverging is dilution and the steps to any ultimate TO
List in US raise to progress and cornerstone pharma + options has me thinking nearer 700m shares
Paradigm Coaching@ParadigmCoachi1
@AndrewDigby3 🙏🏼 Cheers, Capt. Below £10bn is lowball now that we know FAP persistence. If a bid came before AVA6103 data, £10b is the floor. Early AVA6103 efficacy moves range to £18–25bn. In bidding war £30–40bn becomes realistic. Timing and competitive tension drive the top end. #AVCT
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@Mike182035 @ParadigmCoachi1 Nothing more lurking in the shadows. The thesis rings true as much as history may repeat itself...or it may not. I am siding on the premise that we wont see an out of the blue 3000% premium takeover.
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@slee7700 @ParadigmCoachi1 Hi S
Just a small note you're logic appears to have capped the search @ 11 times - would be interested in the further results for >11x no limit?
Thanks
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@ParadigmCoachi1 @Mike182035 So a 700% > for #avct's SP would currently be £5.80, £2.73bn. So even at stretch we need @coughlin582 & co to bolster the SP, > capital (deal/raise) to secure balance sheet and make sure this tech reaches as many people as possible. 3xSP from here would get you to over £8bn T/O.
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@ParadigmCoachi1 @Mike182035 Tobira Therapeutics by Allergan (2016) — Up to ~600% PremiumThe Deal: Allergan bought Tobira Therapeutics for an upfront payment of $28.35 per share, plus Contingent Value Rights (CVRs) that could push the total payout to $49.84 per share.
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@ParadigmCoachi1 @Mike182035 Dimension Therapeutics by Ultragenyx (2017) — ~500% PremiumThe Deal: Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical bought out rare-disease gene therapy company Dimension Therapeutics for $6.00 per share in cash.The Premium: This deal delivered a 500% premium over Dimension’s share price of $1.00.
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@Ian07594592 @Mike182035 @ParadigmCoachi1 I'm obviously looking at best case scenarios here on AIM. There are many different ways it can play out...not here to drive conjecture. #avct need a bolstered cash balance and route to P2/3 trials. Simple...yet after 5 years we are still waiting.
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@slee7700 @Mike182035 @ParadigmCoachi1 Depends heavily on the readout. These are pretreated patients, so hard to know what to expect. Obviously safety needs to be spot on and then any eye opening efficacy would rear the this first. Could that even happen in this patient cohort?
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