@Kaladin1999 @SheDrills @joekent16jan19 yeah lmk when this happened lol. how is the ruble-yuan deal going? or lmk when any country is ever going back to pegging their currency to gold.
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Safari Capital
1.9K posts
@smallmidcaps @SheDrills @joekent16jan19 Or countries make deals based on whatever currency they choose (maybe gold)
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Another major factor that shouldn’t be overlooked:
The war benefits the hardliners currently calling the shots in Iran, they could opt to attack us 1st & on their terms.
Our blockade & presence on Iran’s borders justifies the hardliners positions.
If we leave now we take away the ability for Iran to strike 1st & erode the unifying factor (resistance against U.S./Israel) central to the hardliners power.
Leaving now = Reduce risk, increase leverage.
Joe Kent@joekent16jan19
The NYT article reveals that our military is telling President Trump what has been obvious from the onset of this war: there is no quick military solution in Iran and our early actions set the conditions for the stalemate we are in now. Trump’s best option is to declare victory and walk away now. Limit our exposure in the region, reduce the risk of Iran restarting the war on their terms, and reset negotiations with sanctions relief as both carrot and stick. The Iranians have adapted to our attacks. They can “win” simply by not losing. Future strikes will be less effective, cost us more in casualties, and further harden Iranian resolve. Killing the Supreme Leader rallied the Iranian people around the regime. By also eliminating many moderate leaders, we’ve left ourselves with mostly hardliners to negotiate with, who are unlikely to give Trump the concessions he’s demanding. Two lessons we should have learned in the GWOT: 1. If you stay within reach of the enemy, they will adapt and ultimately win the long war by grinding us down. Iran is doing this on a massive scale with ballistic missiles, air defenses, and drones—the same concept as IEDs, just more advanced. 2. Attacking a nation will rally the people around the regime we’re trying to overthrow, or around forces far worse. Regime change is a fool’s errand.
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@Kaladin1999 @SheDrills @joekent16jan19 yeah the yuan, which is heavily manipulated to boost the Chinese export driven economy, will replace the dollar. Or wait maybe the euro from the shrinking and over-regulated eurozone will take over. Wait maybe bitcoin is gonna be the next reserve currency. what are we doing here?
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@smallmidcaps @SheDrills @joekent16jan19 It's the best thing for middle east
It's not a bad thing for middle east
It's a disaster for US tho
Petro dollar dies
You value currency drops
And you will experience double digit inflation
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@Kaladin1999 @SheDrills @joekent16jan19 if the US leaves the middle east it’ll be the best thing to ever happen. you are saying as if it’s a bad thing
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That's what you don't get
No shia Muslim don't give a shit if you kill them or their leaders
They want the US out of the Middle East for good and they will fight until it happens
That's why even after all these operations in Lebanon Hezbollah is still attacking IDF not to mention Hezbollah is fighting both israel and lebenon government at the same time
Multiply Hezbollah by 100 and you will get IRAN
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@Kaladin1999 @SheDrills @joekent16jan19 iran isn’t going to accept no longer being bombed, having their leaders not being killed and collecting tolls. lol. seems like a sweet deal to them. arabs want to sell oil and not being bombed anymore. americans want cheaper oil. just get out of the middle east.
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@smallmidcaps @SheDrills @joekent16jan19 Yeah Iran isn't going to accept that
Even other arab countries wouldn't accept it
They paid you hundreds of billions over the years for protection
You didn't just fail to protect them you started a reckless war on behalf of israel that fucked up their economy
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@Kaladin1999 @SheDrills @joekent16jan19 by leaving it means returning to the status quo before this stupid war!
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Bc we are a terrorist regime remember 😉
But no Iran wouldn't hit Persian gulf countries if US leaves
I lived in Iran and visited many of the gulf countries
The thing is if the US leaves gulf countries will tear each other apart
Saudis always wanted to take over UAE and Qatar
Bahrain was part of Iran less than 60 years ago
Iraq always had a claim on kuwait
Middle east will change forever the moment US leaves
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@Kaladin1999 @SheDrills @joekent16jan19 why would iran hit the pipelines after the US leaves when they were not hitting them before?
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@smallmidcaps @SheDrills @joekent16jan19 Even if that was true Iran could still hit every oil pipe that by passes the strait
And even if they don't the oil reserves are literally in the Persian gulf
You can't move that too
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@Kaladin1999 @SheDrills @joekent16jan19 the market only cares about the oil. russia and anyone else can step up with fertilizers. the localized shortages of imports aren’t gonna cripple the world economy.
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@smallmidcaps @SheDrills @joekent16jan19 And what do you use to move fertilizers and other products?
UAE can bypass the strait with its ports
Bahrain, kuwait , Qatar can't
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@smallmidcaps @SheDrills @joekent16jan19 This is true but Israel doesn’t want Iran to access reconstruction funds bc it fears US hegemony is fading and this is the last opportunity to use the US to achieve its expansionist aims
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So many charts look like they are going higher
Some shakeout/pullbacks/corrections/volatility expected along the way especially after sharp, monster rallies
Patience. Look at the volume profiles. Many riding moving averages higher out of long term bases.
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@Kaladin1999 @SheDrills @joekent16jan19 i have no idea what you mean. a $1 toll per barrel of oil is what everyone will accept now. pipelines will get built and expanded in a couple of year. hormuz becomes obsolete.
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@SheDrills @joekent16jan19 hmmm not if the routes changes and pipelines get built. do you think iran's neighbors will be happy paying tolls indefinitely? let them have the strait.
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@joekent16jan19 Leaving now doesn't destroy leverage. It guarantees that Iran becomes the long-term gatekeeper of the Strait of Hormuz. There are no good outcomes left.
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@jakozloski man you just keep producing one banger after another!
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Match Group at peak was worth $50B. Today it's worth around $8B. The shareholders who lost $42B in market value over four years funded the product decisions that produced that loss. The thing the company was optimizing for was LTV through retention and engagement. If they had been optimizing instead for LTV through value capture aligned with value delivery, they would be the most valuable consumer company built in the last decade. They optimized the wrong variable and the market eventually figured it out.
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China is killing it because NIMBYism doesn't stop progress the way it does in America.
Elon Musk@elonmusk
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@jeffcafe_ @RichardHanania tenet was great jfc. 71% liked it!
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@RichardHanania It’s fine. Movies are make belief. This is a pointless skirmish in the culture war, if Hollywood wants to race-swap then let them - maybe it’ll be reflected in poor returns. The bigger crime was Tenet, Nolan should be imprisoned.
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Guys, I'm trying to be woke and a good person here, and want to stand with people of color in these difficult times, but this is not Helen of Troy.
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@calvinfroedge the earnings estimates are rarely wrong except in actual recessions.
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The forward earnings estimates are probably BS, via Bill Hester:
"Two observations stand out. First, current forecasts, especially for next year, imply sales growth at roughly twice the expected pace of GDP. Historically that typically has occurred when the U.S. economy was coming out of a recession. Second, sales growth is projected to exceed GDP growth for each of the next three years. This would not be unprecedented, but taken together, these assumptions represent the first clear sign of elevated optimism in the forecasts.
On the earnings side, expectations are even more ambitious. Earnings growth is projected to run at roughly twice the pace of sales growth, implying meaningful margin expansion. For example, earnings are expected to grow by about 20% in 2027. This is again the type of growth that typically occurs in post-recession environments, when sales rebound and labor costs remain below pre-contraction levels."
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@stocktalkweekly It doesn't really mean shit if you don't include the stonks you bought and sold.
boring.
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Portfolio hitting new all-time-highs today, crossing +200% YTD
Year-to-Date: +201.19% vs. +8.93% for S&P-500
Past 1-Year: +1,450.63%
Since 1/1/2024 (when I began sharing the portfolio publicly): +3,546.71%
That’s a 36x on the entire portfolio in 26 months ✅
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@papiputs @henriquecentiei why do they keep adding high margin high growth companies to the s&p index? tech is like 50% of the index now. why would you give a lower multiple to s&p than to its underlying companies?
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@henriquecentiei we’ve reached the P/E ratio is useless stage of the cycle, you can’t make this up lol
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The PE ratio is useless.
It's been "above average" since 1994. Thirty years.
Here are 8 reasons PE ratios will NEVER return to historical levels 👇
open.substack.com/pub/henriquece…
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@locke_or_demos @Cernovich Why do you assume I only invest in the EU ? I invest globally...including the USA. Yet, fortunately, I live in the EU because the quality of life is superior to the shithole life in the states...with your ugly scenery, fat women, awful food, etc
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Four years ago I posted this. When market was bottoming. What has the stock market done since then? Notice comments, as usual, speak of “bubble” and “overvalued.” People missed out on a generational run due to their small mindedness, arrogance, and negativity.
Cernovich@Cernovich
It’ll be your turn for wealth. Everyone is panic selling. Like 2008 never happened and didn’t have a huge rebound. DOOOOOMDAY lol. Pick up stuff at a discount. You’ll never buy at the bottom tho. Dollar cost average.
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GIF
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Inflation numbers are bad. More bad news. Earnings numbers are epic. 26% eps growth so far for the SandP. This is actually a crazy high growth rate.
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