Atrhnr

$TSM just double beat at 68% margins. $ASML raised guidance €7B yesterday. HBM is sold out through 2027. And semis are red. There are reasons for this selloff. Just not the ones that matter. The chips aren’t falling on demand, every fundamental print this month screamed the opposite. They’re falling on positioning. This is the same crowded trade unwind the desks have been talking about for a while…everyone owned the same semis, the trade got stretched, and now it’s derisking regardless of earnings. Layer in profit taking after enormous YTD runs, valuation jitters, and a DeepSeek builds its own chip headline, and you get selling that has nothing to do with whether the businesses are working. But the disconnect, quantified. TSMC the company that manufactures for every AI chip on Earth just printed 68% gross margins on sold out leading edge capacity. That’s not demand soften. That’s a company with more orders than it can fill. When the fab that builds everyone’s chips is that pricing powerful and the stocks fall anyway, the stocks are wrong, not the fab. And every time this year the panic sellers dumped on a scary headline, the fundamentals were fine within weeks… Micron, the Korea crash, the CPO scare. Same movie, same ending. The fundamentals just went five for five this month ASML, Meta, TSMC, the inflation prints, HBM sold out. The street went the other way…

- TECHNICAL ANALYSIS!🚨 👇

My strategy analysis ! as follows📈📈! 👇 👇

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