SovEcon
9.5K posts
@sovecon
Helping to trade wheat and corn and manage risk by proving accurate analysis of the Black Sea since 1991. Probably the best crop forecasters in the region.
My $5 Dec corn offer filled...that obviously means we're going higher
Russian #wheat exports spiked to 4.7 mmt in March, up from 2.9 mmt in February, after the start of the war in the Middle East. That was almost a record-high monthly volume, as importers rushed to secure supplies. When did we see a similar spike? In March 2022, right after the start of the Russia-Ukraine war, shipments jumped to 4.8 mmt from 3.0 mmt. In our latest report: • Russian wheat S&D and trade flows • Global supply analysis • Updated price outlook for traders, farmers and importers More: sizov.report/reports/29466/… #oatt #sizovreport #blacksea
US wheat prices are surging: US wheat futures prices jumped +4.1% on Tuesday, to ~$6.58 per bushel, the highest since June 2024. Prices have risen +30% since the start of the year, driven by persistent drought across the US Plains farming region and soaring fertilizer costs. Only 30% of the US wheat crop is currently rated good or excellent by the USDA, while the proportion rated poor or very poor continues to rise. Wheat plants are also maturing too early due to drought stress, with 34% already forming grain heads versus the 5-year average of 21%, a sign the harvest could be significantly smaller than usual. Meanwhile, US farmers are set to plant the least wheat since records began in 1919, as high costs for fertilizer, seeds, and equipment have made the crop increasingly difficult to grow profitably. Food inflation pressures are set to accelerate.
Sugar is ripping, as predicted. The switch to ethanol by Brazilian sugar producers is already well underway. 95% of sugar is being converted to fuel as per the last crop report. Every day crude sits at $90 the logic becomes more and more obvious. campbellramble.ai/p/long-convexi…
#Wheat is ripping through shorts today. We also think fresh long money likely entered the market over the past few sessions. There is no obvious single trigger behind the move. It could be the cumulative effect of everything we have been writing about since the start of the Iran war: fertilizers, energy, sulfur, fuel. That is now colliding with U.S. weather risk and high odds of El Niño, which adds further risk for Australia and India. As I have said more than once this season, the global balance sheet was never as bearish as the majority of analysts and headlines made it sound. We issued a bullish outlook for #wheat on the first day of the Iranian war. Don’t miss the new ones: sizov.report/?utm_source=tw… #oatt #agwx #sizovreport
#Wheat is ripping through shorts today. We also think fresh long money likely entered the market over the past few sessions. There is no obvious single trigger behind the move. It could be the cumulative effect of everything we have been writing about since the start of the Iran war: fertilizers, energy, sulfur, fuel. That is now colliding with U.S. weather risk and high odds of El Niño, which adds further risk for Australia and India. As I have said more than once this season, the global balance sheet was never as bearish as the majority of analysts and headlines made it sound. We issued a bullish outlook for #wheat on the first day of the Iranian war. Don’t miss the new ones: sizov.report/?utm_source=tw… #oatt #agwx #sizovreport
