Frade Duan Signal Advisor

@FredaDuan I share my real-time TRADE alert (entry & exit points) on WhatsApp, free to join ✅ ➡️Copy search input Reply “TRADE” to WhatsApp: +12073130220 Here’s the link : api.whatsapp.com/send?phone=120…

@FredaDuan My next Strategy ⬇️Show more.

Stop Counting Tokens. Start Counting Tasks. There's a lot of chatter right now about "how many dollars of tokens I burned on Model A" versus "how many tokens I burned on Model B." Firms are asking developers to hit a certain spend or token quota per month. But this framing is broken — it's a bragging game, not a real productivity proxy. The metric that actually matters isn't $ per token. It's $ per task. --- 1/ $ per Token — The Number Everyone Quotes Most people access coding models through subscriptions — $20/month at the entry level, $200/month at the pro tier. But subscription plans don't tell you how many tokens you actually burn. So let's use API pricing ($ per input token, $ per output token) as a proxy: Looking at this, you might conclude that @claudeai Opus 4.6 is 12–80x more expensive than GPT-5.1 $Codex Mini. That conclusion is wrong. --- 2/ Token per Task — The Hidden Variable Do different models consume different token counts for the same prompt? Yes — significantly. This is what makes naive $/MTok comparisons misleading. Three layers: A. Tokenizer differences (~5–15% variance). @OpenAIDevs , @AnthropicAI , and @GoogleAI each use different tokenizers. The same code file might be 1,000 tokens on one and 1,100 on another. Smaller gap for code than natural language. B. Output verbosity (2–5x variance). For the same "refactor this function" prompt, a capable model might produce a tight 200-line solution. A cheaper model might produce 400 lines of verbose, wrong code — then require follow-up turns that re-send your entire context. Conversely, smarter models sometimes over-explain with comments, inflating output tokens. C. Hidden thinking tokens (3–10x the bill). Models with reasoning modes — @claudeai 's extended thinking, @OpenAI 's o-series, @GeminiApp 's thinking mode — burn chain-of-thought tokens you never see but still pay for. A request producing 500 visible output tokens might actually consume 5,000 once you include the thinking budget, billed at standard output rates D. Context accumulation (major for agentic coding). Tools like Claude Code and Codex work in multi-turn loops — each step re-sends the growing conversation history plus file contents. A 10-step task might start at 5K input tokens and end at 80K+. This is why Anthropic reports average Claude Code usage around $6/dev/day (Apiyi.com Blog). Prompt caching helps: cache reads cost only 10% of standard input price, saving up to 90% --- 3/ $ per Task — The Metric That Actually Matters $/MTok is the unit cost. But total tokens per task vary so much across models that a model charging 2x per token might actually be cheaper per completed task if it gets the answer right in fewer turns. The real metric is cost per successfully completed coding task — and that's model-quality-dependent, which is exactly why nobody publishes it cleanly. Firms mandating a monthly AI spend should stop treating token burn as the KPI. Ask your developers which models are most efficient in $ per task. They're the ones running these tools every day. They know everything.

@FredaDuan I share my real-time TRADE alert (entry & exit points) on WhatsApp, free to join ✅ ➡️Copy search input Reply “TRADE” to WhatsApp: +12073130220 Here’s the link : api.whatsapp.com/send?phone=120…

@FredaDuan My next Strategy!! ⬇️Show more.

Layoffs Impact - Lots of chatter around reorgs & layoffs recently. I wanted to build a simple framework to understand the financial impact. All scenarios below are purely hypothetical. Key Observations: 1/ SaaS is far more sensitive than Big Tech Using $CRM as a reference (and likely representative of other SaaS names): Assume ~$200k average salary per employee Layoffs can drive: - ~40% uplift to GAAP EPS - ~20% uplift to FCF This is meaningful. Labor is a much larger % of the cost base, so cuts flow through cleanly. 2/ Big Tech: smaller EPS impact, larger FCF leverage For $META, $MSFT, $GOOGL: A 20% layoff implies: - ~5–15% uplift to EPS - Significantly larger impact on FCF The key difference: these companies are already highly profitable, so incremental savings show up more clearly in cash than in earnings. Take $GOOGL as an example: At $200k–$800k salary per employee: - FCF could increase by ~30–80% - Equivalent to enabling ~10% incremental CapEx deployment In other words, layoffs don’t just boost margins - they can directly fund the AI capex cycle. --- To ground the analysis, here are the base assumptions: - 20% workforce reduction - 15% tax rate - $200k–$800k salary range per employee Full analysis: open.substack.com/pub/robonomics…

Valentine’s Day Special: Heart-Shaped Red Velvet Cake Bites! Rich cream cheese frosting, velvety cocoa sponge—perfect for sharing (or keeping all to yourself ). Grab yours Feb 10–14! #LoveAtFirstBite

Late-night cravings We’ve got your warm bowl of ramen + cozy corner until 2 AM.

Neighbors turned friends! Shared our weekend harvest, laughed over stories, and turned a sunny afternoon into pure joy. #NeighborLove #CommunityVibes

Woke up to birds, brewed coffee over fire, and hiked to a view that stole my breath. Camping u003e everything.

Baked fresh lavender shortbread this morning! Crumbly, floral, and perfect with afternoon tea. #HomeBakingJoy #NewRecipeWin

Just had the best daily quest streak in my favorite game—grabbed rare loot, leveled up my main, and even helped a new player! Who’s crushing their in-game goals today

[Celebrate the festival with our Limited-Edition Joy Feast! Crispy roasted turkey, honey-glazed ham, spiced apple stuffing u0026 creamy mashed potatoes. Served with a free festive drink—only this week! #HolidayBites #FestiveFeast]

" Quick Plant Care Tip: Let soil dry 1-2 inches deep before watering—overwatering is #1 killer! Sun-loving plants (like succulents) need 6+ hrs light; shade lovers (pothos) thrive in indirect light. Tag a plant parent who needs this! "

Autumn breeze, golden leaves, warm latte—perfect day to stroll slowly.

Just spent 2hrs grinding in Stardew Valley—got 3 iridium bars u0026 befriended the wizard! Who’s your favorite NPC

Spent the night laughing till my sides hurt at [综艺名] live taping! The cast’s chemistry was chef’s kiss—never thought a game show could feel this cozy u0026 chaotic. Already counting down to the next episode… Who’s binging with me #VarietyShowVibes #LiveTapingFun

"Years pass, but the laughs stay the same. #OldFriends #Reunited"

Across miles, your voice still feels like home. Missing you but grateful for every shared moment—even through screens. #LongDistanceLove #HeartStringsAcrossBorders

"Just binged this hidden gem—Echoes of the Silent Sea! Tense, visually stunning, and a twist you’ll never see coming. Who’s with me for a rewatch #UnderratedSeries #MustWatch"

New Vibe Alert! Dive into a world where every tap feels like a fresh start—smooth, smart, and totally you. Your daily dose of delight is just a click away! #NewExperience #FreshVibes

"Today’s ritual: sip slow, light a candle, and let the world pause for 10 minutes. Small moments = big joy. Happy [Festival/Everyday Magic]! "