Rollercoaster

814 posts

Rollercoaster

Rollercoaster

@steep_slopes

Nomen est omen. Global investor. Looking for wide margin of safety. Accustomed to heavy volatility. Lifelong learner. Not investment advice.

Katılım Ağustos 2020
120 Takip Edilen893 Takipçiler
Rollercoaster
Rollercoaster@steep_slopes·
Oct 2025: Ferring is forcing themselves to sell REBYOTA which must be great news for Finch! Stock + 20% March 2026: Finch is forcing itself to sell itself through court-supervised sale under Chapter 11. Stock -40% Man what do I love public markets! $FNCH
Rollercoaster@steep_slopes

@Mike10947310 @BATMongoose @WallStWary @TLS_Invests I wonder if $FNCH can 'leave' Chapter 11 once the lease has been rejected, or if they have to go through with the Bidding Procedure Motion and run the risk of having a low floor price that they can't escape. All in all they are forced to sell here.

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Rollercoaster
Rollercoaster@steep_slopes·
@Mike10947310 @BATMongoose @WallStWary @TLS_Invests I wonder if $FNCH can 'leave' Chapter 11 once the lease has been rejected, or if they have to go through with the Bidding Procedure Motion and run the risk of having a low floor price that they can't escape. All in all they are forced to sell here.
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Mike
Mike@Mike10947310·
$FNCH is down today on filing Chapter 11. But they only have one employee and trial costs are de minimis at this point as it just depends on the judges ruling, afaict. The biggest overhang for Finch has been a multi year lease they signed while they were still fully operational — my read is this is more about the lease and renegotiation or breaking it than anything else (eg I see nothing on PACER)
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Rollercoaster
Rollercoaster@steep_slopes·
War in Iran seems far from over and the systemic risks from the prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz have yet to fully reverberate through the macro financial feedback loop. I have raised cash as this feels like the safest course of action at the present time.
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Rollercoaster
Rollercoaster@steep_slopes·
@NestBetter $NURS.v essentially guided the Maxim estimates, a bit in line with what they said on q3 cc. I'd be surprised if q1 revs aren't materially higher than $28M, and 2026 revs probably closer to $200-$250M, with exit run-rate in December above $300M.
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Better Nest
Better Nest@NestBetter·
Like that $nurs.v guided conservatively, makes for a nice beat & raise setup. 10x Ebitda is ofc too cheap, especially given material upside to '26 numbers, room for further margin expansion, and growth beyond '26.
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Rollercoaster
Rollercoaster@steep_slopes·
And surprise, surprise, $LODE is diluting again at terms undefined in their press release. Bulls will always tell you the bull case, reality for the equity holders tells you a different story…
Rollercoaster@steep_slopes

@Lars57360069 @NestBetter @CDe_Gasperis The reason Comstock is not up much in the past year is because mgmt diluted SHs by 30% a few months ago, and have a massive ATM in place. Why would you bid this up to then get smashed? I know so many people who would buy big amounts of stock if silver assets were sold! *If*

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Rollercoaster
Rollercoaster@steep_slopes·
@Lars57360069 @NestBetter @CDe_Gasperis The reason Comstock is not up much in the past year is because mgmt diluted SHs by 30% a few months ago, and have a massive ATM in place. Why would you bid this up to then get smashed? I know so many people who would buy big amounts of stock if silver assets were sold! *If*
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Rollercoaster
Rollercoaster@steep_slopes·
@NestBetter @Lars57360069 @CDe_Gasperis Selling the silver assets would immediately make $LODE investable for a large part of the investment community, as they would be (i) seen as competent mgmt (ii) cashed up (iii) able to allocate capital to Metals and Bioleum and (iv) no longer be a ticker for market manipulation.
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Rollercoaster
Rollercoaster@steep_slopes·
@rubicon59 Wondering what you mean by this. Are you referring to the 'justifications' of the raise or the raise itself and HTI being a fraud?
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rubicon59
rubicon59@rubicon59·
$NURS.V. How many time can they pull the same stint over and over?
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Rollercoaster
Rollercoaster@steep_slopes·
@NestBetter Can understand the working capital requirement, but would have expected them to be able to show banks the value of their business model and receive debt funding for WC needs. Even if expensive, better than issuing equity at these prices. Agree adding warrants is crazy.
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Better Nest
Better Nest@NestBetter·
@steep_slopes Sounds like they needed working capital, which is fine, but the terms of this raise really sucked. They need to do better, no reason why this should be stapled to a half warrant.
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Rollercoaster
Rollercoaster@steep_slopes·
Four months after an already unnecessary convertible offering ("big opp in next 30-60 days" didn't materialize), $NURS.v is AGAIN diluting, this time 5.56M shares in total, while already cashed up and presumably CF positive with 700K+ VSDHone orders/month.
Rollercoaster@steep_slopes

$NURS.v Raising C$11.5M at a valuation of C$190M implies a HUGE cost of capital with guidance of 400K orders/day (and thus $700M mcap). Selling shares at C$3.82 when fair value is closer to C$13 is incredibly short-sighed move by mgmt: for value creation the ROI has to be huge.

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Rollercoaster
Rollercoaster@steep_slopes·
In conclusion, while I deplore this action by mgmt, the prospects for VSDHone are (as far as I know) unchanged and the share price should reflect that in the medium term. Let's revisit $VST.cn in 12 months. Still attractive as shown in my updated valuation sheet.
Rollercoaster tweet media
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Rollercoaster
Rollercoaster@steep_slopes·
It is sad to say, but this raise again underlines the superiority of $VST.cn as a play for this investment thesis: the 10% VSDHone profit share is not diluted by this raise. Although VST will also tank tomorrow. Maybe a good time to initiate the buyback!
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Rollercoaster
Rollercoaster@steep_slopes·
@NestBetter Any opinion on how the Venezuela situation might impact $LIB.v? Assuming oil goes into a bear market for the next few years and the Permian and Bakken become uneconomical.
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Rollercoaster
Rollercoaster@steep_slopes·
Have no opinion on $SHMD's core biz, but the €10M convertible was shark financing: 15% interest rate, conversion at $2.15 (55% discount vs market price!), 2% 'arrangement' fee plus 1.25m 'incentive' call options (5Y @ $4.20) --> 6.3M shares dilution for €9.8M i.e. ~$1.55/share!
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Rollercoaster retweetledi
Dylan Marrello
Dylan Marrello@ragingbullcap·
Sounds facetious but if you actually 1) read voraciously 2) think critically about that information from first principles, and 3) have a time horizon longer than a few months, you've already separated yourself from the majority. Applies to many facets of life, not merely investing.
Dylan Marrello tweet media
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Rollercoaster
Rollercoaster@steep_slopes·
@convexititties Exactly, one license per state. Big operators provide multiple products in multiple states, so higher volume per state and more states. I believe Shane or Shafin mentioned 28 clients in a webinar a while back, will try to find it back. Could be that these are all clients though.
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Convexititties, CFA
Convexititties, CFA@convexititties·
@steep_slopes The way I understand it is that a company needs 1 license from hydreight per state the company operates in. Where did you get the ~30 client figure? 30 nationwide clients would be 1,500 licenses (30x50), not 400
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Convexititties, CFA
Convexititties, CFA@convexititties·
This was an extremely bullish update by $HYDTF. Implies the company was generating ~200K orders per week in the first two weeks of December, driven by ~400 licenses The company has now sold ~2,500 licenses, with the majority currently in the onboarding phase If we conservatively assume the ~2,100 other licenses will only scale to a run rate = to the first ~400 licenses (biggest clients were onboarded first) then you get to 400K orders per week once fully onboarded, likely by 2Q26 in my opinion. That’s insane. Even if AOV is $25 and gross margins are 15%, that’s $6M/mo of gross profit at a 400K/mo run rate Nobody is bullish enough. $1B market cap doesn’t feel like a high enough hurdle anymore. 😳
Christian Svane@svane_christian

Hydreight Exceeds 1.3 Million Product Orders Placed, Surpassing 2025 Operational Targets. $NURS.V app.microcapresearch.com/news-feed/7504…

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Keşfet

@Mike10947310 @BATMongoose @WallStWary @TLS_Invests @NestBetter @Lars57360069 @CDe_Gasperis @rubicon59