steve rogers

🔥🔥🔥🔥 A must read: President Trump reverts to old thinking and statements from his first presidency in 2019, downplaying the significance of oil in the Middle East and talks about shipping in Hormuz Strait. You can evaluate what I wrote in this column in World Oil Magazine in July 2019 in light of current events and Trump's statement below: Link: worldoil.com/magazine/2019/… Trump is wrong on the declining significance of the Strait of Hormuz. Speaking about the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf, President Trump asserted recently that “We don’t even need to be there, in that the U.S. has just become the largest producer of energy anywhere in the world.” He also questioned the role of the U.S. in the region: The U.S., he said, is “protecting the shipping lanes for other countries” for “zero compensation.” Here is why he is wrong: 🔴Throughout history, superpowers have always tried to control trade routes and secure them. Protecting waterways is well-entrenched in U.S. foreign and defense policies. 🔴U.S. control of the flow of Middle Eastern oil means its control of Europe, Japan and China. Russia will be more than happy to take over such a position. 🔴Being the largest oil producer in the world does not shield the U.S. from a price shock resulting from instability in the Middle East in general, and from the vacuum caused by the absence of the U.S. from the region. 🔴The U.S. needs Middle Eastern oil because of crude quality issues: All the increase in U.S. shale production is light crude, super-light, and condensates, while several U.S. refineries need the heavier, more sour crudes. From a policymaking point of view, crude quality matters, probably more than quantity at this stage, especially after the loss of the Venezuelan heavy crude because of U.S. sanctions on that country. 🔴The cost of protecting the Strait of Hormuz should be compared to the potential losses, if the U.S. were to withdraw from the region, not to the current benefits. That is how U.S. military leaders viewed the role of the U.S. in the Middle East, in recent decades. 🔴Those countries in the Gulf region can crash the oil market for a long period and reduce U.S. oil production by more than 3 MMbpd, making the U.S. more dependent on the Middle East again. I will conclude with this statement: Who will be happy to see the U.S. either withdrawing from the Gulf region or reducing its presence? Here is a list: Iran, ISIS, AL Qaeda, Russia and China. I rest my case!