stotty

#GoSensGo vs #NYR Breakdown: What’s it mean? Big game for the Sens who with a regulation win would move to a 61.1% chance of making the playoffs and with a regulation loss would be moving down to just a 40.6% chance. Huge swing game here for them. Meanwhile, the Rangers have been eliminated from playoff contention for what seems like November. H2H: These two teams are a split 5-5 in their L10 matchups vs one another averaging 6.7 goals/game. Notably, Igor has 2 shutouts vs the Sens over that stretch. They are 1-1 in the current season series with the Senators winning their previous matchup 8-4 in a battle of backup goalies (Merileinen/Quick). Current Form: The Rangers are actually playing some of their best hockey of the season since shipping off their best forward in Panarin. Hockey is funny like that sometimes. However, they’re 5-5 in their L10 but are coming in off four straight losses compared to the Sens who are 7-3 and riding a nice 4-1 stretch. Here’s how the advanced stats look L10 games: NYR: 42.01 xGF% (2.7xGF/60, 3.73 xGA/60) OTT: 59.2 xGF% (4.02 xGF/60, 2.77 xGA/60) Pretty different ends of the spectrum as Ottawa is top 5 in offensive and defensive metrics over their L10 while the Rangers are pretty substantially outscoring and out-goalie-ing offensive/defensive performance. Keys of the game 🔑 🏒 The Penlaty Box: I think special teams can play a big part in this one and swing the result. Ottawa has struggled at times to stay out of the box, and will need to do so tonight vs a Rangers offense heavily dependent on Power Play opportunities and relishing in them with the 7th best unit in the league at 24.2%. Meanwhile, the Sens don’t boast a worthwhile penalty kill ranking 30th and killing just 74.6% of opponents man advantages. Goaltending: it’s no doubt that a goalie can single handedly win or lose a hockey game on any given night, and tongiht we have the much more talented goalie on the much worse hockey team. Shesterkin is in solid form since the Olympic break posting a 5-2-2 record with a 2.97 GAA and .906 sv%. He’s coming off a bad night vs the Jets in which he allowed 5 goals. It’s been tough for him due to the amount of chances the defense in front of him has allowed. The Sens are top 3 in SOG and the Rangers are allowing the most SOG over their L10 (31.1). Summary/Prediction: Barring an Igor masterclass, the Sens should handle business tonight in a game that means much more to them vs a team they outclass in fairly every aspect aside from goaltending. Projecting: OTT 3-1 NYR Like Ottawa in a fairly tight game to stay disciplined and protect their backup goalie Reimer from too many odd man rushes and head home with two points. My Picks ⭐️ OTT -1 -112 (2u) POD u6 -107 IGOR o26.5 Avs -120 BRADY o3.5 SOG -120 Drop a like if you found this breakdown useful❤️‍🔥🫡