Süleyman III 🏴

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@DarwynsTheory @APompliano @DavidDTawil zoom out far enough, every market is a zero sum game

This is non-sense. Prediction markets, much like poker, are skill based yet remain ZERO sum games because the only way to win is for someone else to lose. Investing in the stock market comes with risks, but it is inherently a POSITIVE sum game. Just stay away from derivatives, leverage, & meme stocks.

Prediction markets are gambling. Not sure how anyone believes anything different.

@naygozalova local jesus hahah i see it now

the most prototypical “why?” question is a counterfactual question in disguise if we ever want robots to answer “why?” questions or even understand what they mean… we must equip them with a causal model and teach them counterfactual reasoning

@SirJoey @0xgingergirl insider trading increases the accuracy of prediction markets, its a feature not a bug

@0xgingergirl Surely insider info becoming an edge raises a lot of red flags though Insider trading is already illegal haha, so idk, perhaps they introduce some regulation around this somehow too

“Predictifying everything” is real. I spoke to someone building prediction markets for startups, then asked a VC how this actually plays out. He said: imagine it’s a great startup. The idea is solid. But I know one of the founders is dealing with Lyme disease. Even with a great product, I know they won’t be able to give 100% this year. When everything becomes a market, real world insider information turns into an edge. Predictifying everything is going to get wild.

@SoodGen @K1_shah distribution > engineering

@K1_shah Distribution is the moat. Period

As someone who has worked in marketing for nearly 10 years, a good product is essential for any marketing success. The phrase "build it and they will come" holds some truth: if you create something valuable enough, you will see success. However, you cannot build great products without talking to your users and customers. This is where marketing conversations become crucial. To build superior products that deliver immense value, talk to your customers—and use RedditLeadGen. com to find your users.

desire to be great comes from the fear of being ordinary

polymarket > political analysts

@shafu0x mathematically proven

insider trading prediction markets is a feature not a bug

language shapes thoughts you cannot answer a question that you cannot ask and you cannot ask a question that you have no words for

some tens of thousands of years ago humans realized certain things cause other things and tinkering with the former can change the latter no other species grasps this from this discovery came organized societies, then cities, and inevitable the technocivilization we exist in today all because we asked a simple question: “why?”

superstition is correlation mistaken for causation

@James_of_Arc live a life so meaningful you’re prepared to die for it

i have always and forever been all in

fly towards a secret sky and a hundred veils fall each moment first to let go of life… and finally to take a step without feet

prediction markets are supposed to coordinate civilization instead we’re optimizing for guessing celebrity mentions build the serious version

certainty is impossible… all beliefs are probabilistic and truth is a confidence level on limited information

prediction markets vs gambling fundamentally we cannot know what we want, epistemic uncertainty will always exist, that problem cannot be solved the only knowing we have is that we know nothing from that axiom, the value prop prediction markets have is that we can reduce uncertainty of a future event by producing a market-based belief graph its a probability space after all, but derived from a market-based mechanism if there’s money involved, it’s going to be called gambling… even stock markets in the early 1900s were classified as gambling normies will eventually catch up

the only pronouns i accept are i/we

you haven’t wrapped your head around how big prediction markets can get

miss this crypto cycle and you will regret it