Skyler Weinand

Back to the Future Biff Tannen, America's greatest living folk hero, was modeled on Trump. The alternate future, where Biff Tannen has taken over Hill Valley. Life imitates art. youtu.be/rPVNVy9pq28?si…

Inflation Move One of these prints does not look like the others. The March 2026 print moved CPURNSA up ~3.5 points, which was a +1.00% non-seasonally adjusted number, the highest move since June 2022. These outsized prints are expected to continue, until morale improves.

22-Year Old Mortgage Loans Old enough to drink! 2004 Prime AA/AA+ at $100, 6+% yield in all scenarios

39% Hit on World Cup Tickets One pair of tickets to USA's first match in LA vs Paraguay. Arguably one of the biggest draws of the World Cup, outside of the Finals. These tickets were $2735 face value. The seller of these is only getting 85% of 2k, or $1700. ...and this is the list offer. Ticket prices will likely go much lower.

Unsecured Credit This is and will continue to be the first line of losses for investors. wsj.com/finance/privat…

High-end Skimpers Middle and high income earners are skimping more than ever. wsj.com/economy/skimp-…

5+% Everywhere! Freddie Mac 19% Credit Support vs 2% delinquincies 5% Yield at 0CPR / +63 treasuries All upside from there

@junkbondinvest Tickets are currently trading below face for the first USA game

Eagle Point lent 100% of cost against World Cup tickets. The thesis: tickets trade at 3x face value so real LTV is 35%.

Higher Oil Prices = Inflation The Dallas Fed estimates a +0.40% effect on core inflation in Q2, with the Strait being closed only for one quarter. dallasfed.org/research/econo…

Instant Loss on Private Credit World Cup tickets are actually already selling below face value on the secondary market. One only needs to check the major reseller sites to view current prices... ft.com/content/234f63…

Back to Basics The dollar is trading back to pre-Iran levels as the market turns its focus back to fiscal profligacy and inflation.

Mr. Brightline

AI = Inflation The boom in investment in AI infrastructure was more likely to add pressure to prices in the short run before the US experienced any “supply side bounty”. ft.com/content/345e5d…

AAA +117 vs Treasuries 4.9% at 25 CPR to call 5.3% at 25 CPR to maturity Hard to find this in almost any other product

@SenLummis @CaitlinLong_ His term was up 76 days ago. He’s filling a spot until someone is confirmed to replace him.

A question for Chairman Powell: Why has Governor Miran been on the Fed’s Board of Governors for seven months and not yet been appointed to a single Board committee? He was confirmed by the United States Senate just like you. It’s your responsibility to manage the Board.

⭐️ ⭐️ ⭐️ ⭐️ / 5 Great third volume to @RyanHoliday’s stoic series. Key takeaways: - Reading primary sources is a superpower - The more you learn, the more you don’t know - Wisdom doesn’t necessarily come with age, but with learning from exploring

5+% on 3-Year Government Paper 5.29% coupon at a discount! 10-year final maturity Front sequential cashflow At 8% annualized prepayment rate, +120/3.4yr, 5.03% yield

TIPS Mispricing "Treasury bonds are almost always overvalued relative to TIPS." "The price of a Treasury bond can exceed that of an inflation-swapped TIPS issue exactly matching the cash flows of the Treasury bond by more than $20 per $100 notional amount." "The relative mispricing of TIPS and Treasury bonds represents one of the largest examples of arbitrage ever documented and poses a major puzzle to classical asset pricing theory." onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.11…

Shrinkflation in Housing There are a few things keeping home prices elevated: - Lower quality materials - Rate buydowns - Lower builder margins wsj.com/real-estate/fl…