Tavern Research

Toplines here: politico.com/f/?id=0000019f…

After Mallory McMorrow withdrew from Michigan’s US Senate race, we polled likely Democratic primary voters. Among all three candidates: Abdul El-Sayed 41% Haley Stevens 38% Mallory McMorrow 5% Not sure 16% Head to head: Haley Stevens 42% Abdul El-Sayed 41% Not sure 17%

Yes, we saw the news. We’re going back into the field. New data soon. #MaineSenate

Toplines here: …750075.fs1.hubspotusercontent-na2.net/hubfs/24275007…

Over the weekend, we polled a general election sample on how they felt about the Maine senate race, the numbers were as follows: Graham Platner 52% Susan Collins 48% And among independents, 59% support Platner. #MaineSenate #Newpoll

📊 The Tavern Take: Week of June 22, 2026 | The Iran deal is up 12-15 points, voters split on its secret text, and a housing message beat partisan blame by 52 points. tavernresearch.com/research-and-w…

More findings on the Iran deal, the Fifth Amendment, and a housing message that won by 52 points. Our latest Substack: open.substack.com/pub/tavernrese…

📊 The Tavern Take: Week of June 22, 2026 Voters back the Iran deal, but the message that won wasn't attacking Trump's victory lap. That was the worst-testing frame, off 6.2 points. Telling voters to release the full text and let Congress review it won, up 6.8.

New poll finds Republican Kurt Alme with a wide lead in the Montana Senate race. Republican Kurt Alme 49 Democrat Alani Bankhead 26 Independent Seth Bodnar 24 Libertarian Kyle Austin 2 Here are the toplines: …750075.fs1.hubspotusercontent-na2.net/hubfs/24275007…

Read the story from the Washington Post: washingtonpost.com/politics/2026/…

We love to see AI being used to help real people communicate what's important to them. It’s smart, it’s engaging, and it works. So much better than the traditional campaign ad slop voters tune out.

Toplines here: …750075.fs1.hubspotusercontent-na2.net/hubfs/24275007…

New poll finds Cait Conley leading the Democratic primary field in NY-17 one week before primary day. This was fielded after a GOP linked group began spending against Conley in the race. Cait Conley 34 Beth Davidson 23 Effie Phillips-Staley 13 Mike Sacks 1 John Cappello 1

Read more: natesilver.net/p/the-state-of…

Tavern in the news. Today from @NateSilver538 on our recent Maine polling.

The question is not so much whether Platner can win; he certainly can and is a slight favorite in prediction markets. But whether Democrats would be better off with a candidate who isn't either Platner or Mills. All of Platner, Collins and Mills have poor net-negative ratings.

General toplines here: …750075.fs1.hubspotusercontent-na2.net/hubfs/24275007…

Primary toplines here: …750075.fs1.hubspotusercontent-na2.net/hubfs/24275007…

THREAD: We ran two polls ahead of tomorrow’s Democratic Primary in Maine. One primary election poll and one general election poll. Platner is the favorite in tomorrow’s primary. Graham Platner 68% Janet Mills 16% Others / not sure 16% (+61 in the 2-way)