Tony Martin-Vegue

Not really on Twitter anymore. But you can find me here: 📘 Essays: tonym-v.com 📨 Newsletter: heatmapstohistograms.substack.com 💼 LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/tonymartinv… If you're into cyber risk, decision science, or quantifying uncertainty — come say hi.

@caseyjohnellis for years it Jillian’s, now it’s table top tap house.

hey internet, what’s the name of the bar in yerba buena that the securosis bloggers meetup was at?

This is a great Friday laugh. “We never wore seatbelts as a kid and, look, my generation turned out fine” is the ultimate example of survivorship bias. lnkd.in/gV6amna6

New blog post! Many InfoSec pros struggle with measuring the effectiveness of security awareness training. Here are some tips on how to measure if user behavior is tangibly changed. tonym-v.com/blog/the-cisos…

Love this! lnkd.in/gC8nmFYK

New blog post! How a 14th-century monk can improve your decision making I use the principles of Ockham's Razor every day, from vetting my risk register to concluding how my dog got out of the house. #management #technology #decisionmaking #riskmanagement tonym-v.com/blog/how-a-14t…

Finally, Bono and I have something in common. bbc.com/news/entertain…

March 2021 looked a lot like February 1637 to me, and I'm afraid we're in for a rocky ride. Some of my thoughts are in this blog post I wrote when Coinbase IPO'd and Bitcoin's value seemed limitless. tonym-v.com/blog/2021/3/8/…

I've always been bearish on cryptocurrency in general. In some cases, it feels like a Ponzi scheme. Other coins are, without a doubt, simple pump-and-dump scams.

Wow, this is a really provocative post! I love it. David Brown makes some really good points. I do believe the solution to the problem he describes is to bring the field of cyber security forecasting and analysis into the 21st cen…lnkd.in/gCaC38fp lnkd.in/gp-mQ7UY

@PaulM Agree. I think it’s inevitable

In case you missed it - check out my 2022 cyber predictions. I do things a bit differently than most annual prediction lists. tonym-v.com/blog/2021/12/3…

@coffeetocode Thanks! I may get one of those oddball ones right… never know

Finally got around to catching up on @tdmv's annual predictions. This is a kind of predicting I can get behind ❤️. Actual criteria, confidence estimate, and skin in the game. (I think you're gonna lose some money on ET and Nessie though... )

Check out my latest article: A Beginner's Guide to Cyber War, Cyber Terrorism and Cyber Espionage linkedin.com/pulse/beginner… via @LinkedIn

Every cybersecurity professional needs to be closely following the current cyber attacks between Russia and Ukraine. It's a preview of what's to come on a wider scale.

Unfortunately, this is nothing new - I first started seeing this in 2015 and wrote up an analysis on Russian/Ukraine cyberattacks and the meaning of cyberwar. I just hope the cyberattacks don't escalate to the kinetic. tonym-v.com/blog/2015/04/2…

We seem to be inching closer to war between Russia and Ukraine. Early this morning, Ukrainian government websites were hit with a series of cyberattacks.

- I offer a quantitative way to measure whether or not I'm right - At the end of 2022, I'll donate money to the @eff based on my % correct (last round, I donated $400)

I'm back, with another round of 2022 annual predictions - with my unique twist. Most annual prediction lists we see this time of year are written so broadly that the writer can hardly ever be wrong. They also don't go back at the…lnkd.in/g3rX3_cw lnkd.in/gZeqd7SD

I was very lucky to get a sneak peek at @RichardSeiersen's new book, The Metrics Manifesto. It's witty, unique, and - most of all - comes at a pivotal time in our field. This book does for security metrics what Julia Childs did for provincial French cooki…lnkd.in/gPhfpbMm