The Germinator
310 posts
@the_germinator
These are my thoughts & personal analysis of gold and silver. They are not investment advice. Always draw your own conclusions by doing your own due diligence.
Silver's 6-month triangle formation is about to find resolution. I believe, the coming breakout will go into the history of silver...
There was a clear low 23/03 in #gold and #silver with a back test 26/03. Between now and 01/05 we are in the timing for a low. Metals stocks #GDX #GDXJ #SIL low was 20/03 US and 23/03 UK with large gapdown 8-19/03 to undercut low of 17/02. x.com/i/status/20489… @garysavage1
#Silver - Quo Vadis? The reversal silver had last week suggests that the lower bound of the pennant formation, in which silver has been moving lately, should be redrawn a bit higher. If it had closed the week above that formation we could even argue that the consolidation is over, and that it could rally from here (contrary to my prediction of a "boring summer"). But it didn't. Silver failed to break out of that pennant. It could still do that next week. But in my opinion there's a higher probability that it would break down. The pennant will morph into a falling wedge, as I've been expecting for some time, and we will have a meandering bottom along that gray line, in the $55-60 region. Again, I'm willing to change my mind if silver exhibits more strength, makes a higher high above $83 and challenges the March high of $96. But until that happens, the "boring summer" thesis holds.
Almost no analysts think metals will do anything for months and some are even calling for a year or more to churn. That is the safe bet. The trolls aren't going to eviscerate you for a noncommittal call like that. Almost no one is willing to stick their neck out and predict higher prices in the weeks and months ahead. I am willing to go out on a limb and say that the bottom is behind us. It formed as a normal ABC correction (and with the bullish percent oscillator at 3) and now metals are on week 5 of the advancing phase of a new intermediate cycle. It's also my opinion that the final bull market top (bubble phase) should occur during this 8 year cycle. That means we don't really have time to churn for months or years. It also seems like a pretty good bet the dollar is 3 years into a secular bear market, and about a year and a half into the current 3 year cycle with the next major bottom due in late 27 or early 28. That should be the driver for the final bubble in metals. So I'm going to be looking for my $10,000 piece of cake target (that may end up being way too conservative) in late 27/28. Extrapolating that into intermediate cycles, there should be 4, maybe 5 more intermediate cycles between now and the top. Each one should make higher highs above the previous intermediate top. So I'm not in the camp that metals are going to churn for the rest of the year. They need to keep stair stepping up. I expect metals to start generating some momentum in May and by July or Aug we should be back to extreme FOMO during the final weeks of this intermediate cycle (best guess $6500-$7000). Then we repeat it all again, with another harsh correction, producing bleak sentiment that sets the stage and builds the fuel for the next rally.
You should know by now that I am the "LOG SCALE" police! Using the same starting point which Rashad did on the silver chart, I drew my rising support line. You can see we are now BELOW that line. Remember to ALWAYS USE LOG.
