Between The Lines

Three years ago Barcelona couldn't register players. Today they're being linked with Anthony Gordon and Julián Álvarez. I dug into the finances expecting to find a club still living on the edge. What I found instead completely changed my view of how football actually works. The answer has less to do with transfer fees than most fans realise. ⬇️ open.substack.com/pub/thelines26…

🚨 THE RAFAEL LEÃO X MAN UTD 🚨 Data, Monte Carlo simulations, and a trip to Italy prove Rafael Leão is the ultimate target. Let’s dive in 👇🧵 The Leão Confession 🗣️ Leão heavily fueled transfer speculation by naming United his favourite Premier League club. "I like United because my idol is Cristiano Ronaldo." He followed up via Sport TV: "I want a new chapter. I feel ready to play in another league." The Cut-Price Market Reality 📉 Because AC Milan missed out on Champions League football, Leão’s price has cratered to a bargain £43m (€50m). Arsenal and Chelsea are lurking, but Leão has already publicly laid the groundwork for Old Trafford. The door is wide open. The Captain’s Blessing 🇵🇹 Bruno Fernandes is already publicly supporting his international teammate. "He is a boy with an enormous talent... a phenomenon player." Behind the scenes, Bruno has been heavily endorsing the move, preparing for a devastating left-flank link-up. The Monte Carlo Simulation 📊 We ran thousands of algorithmic variations mapping Leão, Morgan Rogers (£100m fee), and Yan Diomande (£86m fee) into United's squad. Leão came out on top as the clear mathematical winner, projecting the highest point floor and ceiling. Why?👇 The Amortisation Masterclass 🧮 This is where football finance breaks the game. Under PSR, a £43m transfer fee on a 5-year contract doesn't hit the books as £43m today. It is amortised at just £8.6m per year.

Everyone is asking whether Manchester United have £150m or £250m to spend this summer. After reviewing the latest accounts, I think they're asking the wrong question. The transfer budget doesn't exist. The real story is annual squad cost, commercial growth, debt optimisation and why a signing like Ederson may be more important than Tchouaméni. 🧵👇 #MUFC thelines26.substack.com/p/manchester-u…

@munny_b Precisamente ese es el punto. Mucha gente ha terminado confundiendo "problemas para inscribir jugadores" con "el Barça no tiene dinero". No son la misma cosa. La pregunta es si el mercado sigue valorando al Barça como si siguiera en la situación de 2021.

@the_lines26 Sigue sin poder registrar jugadores. Olmo sigue registrado por una medida cautelar del CSD

Three years ago Barcelona couldn't register players. Today they're being linked with Anthony Gordon and Julián Álvarez. I dug into the finances expecting to find a club still living on the edge. What I found instead completely changed my view of how football actually works. The answer has less to do with transfer fees than most fans realise. ⬇️ open.substack.com/pub/thelines26…

@CBL616 This is going to be an interesting window.

@the_lines26 May 28th and Barcelona has 65M for salary available, without even selling players. Imagine what can happen from now until August

@CBL616 salary cap dependant

@the_lines26 more incoming

Las palancas fueron importantes para salir de una situación muy complicada. Pero mi punto es otro. Si el Barça vuelve a generar más de 1.000 millones de euros al año, llega un momento en el que la conversación deja de ser sobre las palancas y vuelve a ser sobre la capacidad real del club para generar ingresos. Ese es precisamente el debate.

@AmuntVaCF @the_lines26 @joselectron @ViikingThor Sin las palancas han tenido pérdidas todos los años e incluso con ellas hay años que también

Es una crítica razonable. El Barça sigue teniendo deuda, obligaciones importantes y desafíos financieros reales. Mi argumento no es que el Barça esté financieramente perfecto. Es que gran parte del fútbol sigue hablando del Barça como si estuviera al borde de la quiebra, cuando los números sugieren una realidad bastante más compleja.

@joselectron @ViikingThor @the_lines26 Sin patrocinadores nuevos, sin el 25% de ingresos de TV, sin ingresos de Barça Visión ni Barça Studios ni demas palancas, contando ventas como ingresos ordinarios, con más de 500M€ de deuda a corto plazo, intereses carísimos en los préstamos del estadio... Venden humo.

@tora__music I largely agree. The immediate problem for years was La Liga's salary limit. The interesting thing is that many people ended up confusing "registration problems" with "Barcelona has no money." They're not exactly the same thing.

@the_lines26 The problem has never been the money but the la liga salary caps

@joselectron @ViikingThor Precisamente por eso escribí el artículo. Un club que genera más de 1.000 millones al año no debería seguir siendo percibido como si estuviera al borde de la quiebra. Esa contradicción es la parte interesante.

@ViikingThor @the_lines26 1100 millones de ingresos y en ascenso, penoso 🤣🤣

Muchísimas gracias 🙏⚽ Ese es exactamente el objetivo. No intento convencer a nadie de una opinión, sino explicar temas que a menudo se simplifican demasiado: finanzas, estrategia, fichajes y cómo funcionan realmente los grandes clubes. Comentarios así hacen que merezca la pena escribir.

@the_lines26 @ViikingThor seguiré leyendo lo que escribas y no porque sea culé sino porque soy amante del fútbol y me gusta comprender hasta donde no consigo llegar porque nadie lo explica y menos tan claro. @aPartidoUnico Isacc te recomiendo encarecidamente que leas este artículo y leas lo que escribe.

@tibugol7169452 @ViikingThor Muchas gracias 🙏⚽ Me alegra que te haya gustado. Intento mirar el fútbol desde la perspectiva financiera y estratégica, no solo desde los titulares.

@the_lines26 @ViikingThor espectacular ⚽ chapeau!!!

Estoy bastante de acuerdo contigo. Precisamente una de las conclusiones del artículo es que el mercado sigue hablando del Barça como si fuera 2021, cuando sigue siendo uno de los mayores generadores de ingresos del fútbol mundial. La pregunta interesante no es si puede conseguir crédito. La pregunta es por qué tanta gente sigue actuando como si no pudiera.

@ViikingThor @the_lines26 Si te dan créditos es porque generas mucho y eres solvente, para un inculto de la mafia blanca es muy difícil de saber eso 🤣🤣🤣

@superTekka If you simulate him in the squad. It will suprise you

I sincerely hope they do NOT listen to Vivell on Tchouameni.

I simulated every realistic Manchester United transfer window. One thing surprised me. The most talked-about midfield target wasn't part of the title-winning simulation. 👇 thelines26.substack.com/p/what-can-man…

@KaineBarcaFC My advice is read the article.

@the_lines26 What financial crisis, our revenue is 1.1 billion a year, we're the biggest revenue club in the world. We simply had high ass wages and La Liga has a massive cap in fair play. Something that France or England don't have

@MaxTalksSports1 Appreciate that mate. Just trying to write thoughtful football pieces rather than chase transfer rumours all day 😂 Followed back and looking forward to reading your stuff too.

@the_lines26 Love what you are doing! I am also doing a similar page of you are interested in following

That's the conventional wisdom. I started researching the article expecting to reach the same conclusion. Instead I ended up looking at wage bills, transfer debt and why Manchester United and Barcelona have taken completely different lessons from the last decade. Curious what you think after reading it: thelines26.substack.com/p/how-can-barc…

@the_lines26 They don't have money. More and more credits

And now Julian Alvarez... This is a disaster waiting to happen

If the Anthony Gordon salary reports are true, this is genuinely one of the most irresponsible financial decisions Barcelona have made in years. Not because Gordon is a bad player, he’s excellent. But reportedly making him the 2nd highest paid player at the club, above Lamine Yamal and Raphinha, is madness. You’re potentially paying: €70m fee £300k a week to a player who has NEVER operated at Barcelona’s level before. What message does that send internally? Imagine being: Lamine Yamal = the face of the club Raphinha = one of your best attackers Pedri / Gavi = core project players …and seeing a new arrival instantly jump above you financially. That’s how dressing rooms destabilise. And this is exactly how Barcelona got themselves into financial chaos before: emotional market moves + inflated wage structures. The scary part? They now seem financially dependent on remaining elite every single season. One bad Champions League cycle and these decisions suddenly look VERY different.