The Capital Allocator

There is no more trust in international relations and agreements are not possible because no one is going to honor them. International relations take decades to forge, but a few days to demolish. It will take many years and several wars before a return to a stable regime.

Most investors separate quality, value and momentum. I combine them. My Wide Moat + Momentum strategy selects 30 stocks based on: • ROIC • EBIT / EV • 6 & 12m momentum Avg ROIC: 40.5% Reviewed monthly. I explained the framework here: …pitalallocationchartbook.substack.com/p/inside-one-o…

$META with another ugly day: -7.96%. Printed another lower low — downtrend remains intact.

@nikitabier @Noahpinion Why should I even open the internet?

@Noahpinion Use the dislike button. We’re learning, fast.

AI will destroy the internet. Slop will drive out human-created content on platform after platform. Instead of interacting with someone else's slop, people will just make their own slop with AI apps. There will be no online human-to-human interaction left. Note: This is good

Surprisingly, Bitcoin has performed well since the war began suggesting most large sellers have already sold. Furthermore, an asset that doesn’t fall on bad news is potentially a long-term buy.

Sold half of my $LRCX position (+130%) and rotated into $SCCO. $SCCO: • ROIC: 25.2% • Earnings Yield: 5.8% • Strong 6–12M momentum Quality + value + trend. Not financial advice.

@inside_ffm Die unsinnige Kadergröße auf ein vernünftiges Maß reduzieren

Es ist doch ganz einfach: mit Ausnahme der Bayern kann sich in der Bundesliga kein Verein erlauben seine Topspieler lange zu halten, wenn große Angebote kommen. Uli provoziert und stichelt nur. Oder er wird einfach alt. Denn eigentlich weiß er das natürlich auch.

After 20 years allocating capital I don’t rely on a single strategy. I run 11. Not because more is better — but because no strategy works all the time. I wrote about my multi-strategy framework here: 👇

On my investment views and portfolio. AI disrupted everything. On a personal note it did so for my personal work, strategies I ran, work load, tools, businesses I own. It disrupted entire industries and sectors. Beyond it the most significant shift to me is the introduction of new self governing business entities aka AI agents. As money flew into AI it flew out of Crypto. To me that provided one of the best pitches I have seen ever. Only other ideas I felt this strongly about were $BABA $MELI and $UNH (these are all in my top 5 biggest wins ever). I see the world moving to everyone running Family offices. You are the mastermind and run hundreds of AI agents that help you manage your life, your business, any needs and proactive actions. Each action requires authentication, verification, payment and reputation. This is simply impossible to do with the old system. Crypto does not compete with AI, it completes it into the new age of intelligence based workers. The only chain that is secure enough, decentralized enough, fast enough, allows for all facets of the above and has the critical mass of capital, history and developer base is Ethereum $ETH. Now add to the above stablecoins for ex-AI, store of value, Tokanization and alike and you have a mega trade. Not to mention a 5y+ consolidation and a small 300b market cap compared to a worldwide implementation of this new tech. People priced it in as completion to AI and software where as it’s actually infrastructure for AI and ex-AI.

Chart: MFS

International value stocks are much cheaper than the S&P 500. One major reason: allocations to these stocks are very low. Low ownership often leads to low valuations.

After 20 years allocating capital I evaluate every investment strategy using five questions: • Economic logic • Robustness • Drawdowns • Capacity • Portfolio fit Most strategies fail one of these tests. New article:

Most investors don’t fail because their strategy is bad. They fail because they abandon it during drawdowns. After 20 years allocating capital I’ve learned that the solution isn’t finding the perfect strategy. It’s building a portfolio of strategies. New post:

@ffmgezwitscher @Hellmann1899 leider war das ganze absehbar - wenn man trotz Rekordeinnahmen Verluste schreibt - muss es sich um Missmanagement handeln.

Bei der #SGE verdichten sich sportlicher Druck, finanzielle Risiken & Machtfragen zur heiklen Gemengelage: möglicher Abgang von Markus, millionenschwere Vertragsdebatten um @Hellmann1899, drohende Verluste & gleichzeitig die Hoffnung auf #UEL als strategischen Rettungsanker. 1/2

@SBachTax welchen Steuersatz empfehlen Sie dann für Kapitalerträge? Was passiert mit der privaten Altersvorsorge und ETF-Sparern?

Den Soli sollte man auch bei den Unternehmen abschaffen, bringt dort bisschen Entlastung, im Gegenzug die Entlastungstreppe ab 2028 kürzen & die Abgeltungsteuer aufheben (6/7)

Ein #Einkommensteuer-Reformvorschlag zur Güte: Abschaffung Mittelstandsbauch, gediegener linear-progressiver Tarif, moderate Anhebung Spitzensteuersatz, Abschaffung Rest-#Soli. Tenor: Back to #Stoltenberg. Ein Thread (1/7) 🧵⬇️ zeit.de/wirtschaft/202…

Sold $PH yesterday. This was part of my Greenblatt + ATR strategy. Entry: 694 Initial stop: 631 Exit: 902 Reward/Risk: 3.4 The goal isn’t predicting tops. The goal is letting winners run while risk stays defined.