The Cipher Brief

This Memorial Day, we remember the Americans who quietly volunteered to stand with Ukraine after Russia’s invasion — not for recognition, but because conscience demanded it. Some never came home. Their stories deserve to be told. 🇺🇸🇺🇦 thecipherbrief.com/americans-ukra…

DHS authorities have expanded. Its strategy hasn’t. The result: components managing increasingly interconnected threats without a unifying institutional framework. The gap between mission and strategy is widening. thecipherbrief.com/dhs-become-cen…

Trump’s Beijing summit produced few clear deliverables, but gave Xi Jinping something valuable. Two Cipher Brief experts assess what the summit revealed about U.S.-China competition, Taiwan, AI and Beijing’s growing confidence. thecipherbrief.com/the-g2-takeawa…

Two straits and two very different uses of power. Hormuz proves geography can reshape the global economy. The Øresund strait could pressure Russia's war machine without firing a shot. Sweden and Denmark hold the keys. Read more in The Cipher Brief. thecipherbrief.com/sweden-denmark…

Iran doesn’t need to cripple the U.S. grid to create pressure. Small disruptions at scale can erode public confidence without crossing military red lines. Read more. thecipherbrief.com/iran-digital-t…

Walter Pincus digs into the FBI’s FY27 budget request, and finds a revealing line item. Millions for digital watermarking and user activity monitoring aimed at tracking leaks from inside the Bureau. Read more in The Cipher Brief. thecipherbrief.com/fbis-push-trac…

No major deals. No breakthrough on Iran. No movement on Ukraine. Yet Xi may have achieved what mattered most: Images of equality with a U.S. president, staged among 1,000-year-old trees inside Zhongnanhai. thecipherbrief.com/the-symbolism-…

In The Cipher Brief, Sean M. Wiswesser examines the threat of Sino-Russian opportunism, intelligence miscalculation, and the risk of parallel crises from the Baltics to Taiwan. Read the full analysis at The Cipher Brief. thecipherbrief.com/the-bear-and-t…

The Pentagon has the money. The defense tech sector has the tools. But Joey Gagnard argues the real question is whether America’s procurement system can move fast enough to matter. thecipherbrief.com/a-bridge-too-s…

When a Charismatic and a Machiavellian Meet -- As Presidents Trump and Xi prepare to meet in Beijing, two experts examine the psychology, power instincts, and risks shaping one of the world’s most consequential relationships. thecipherbrief.com/charismatic-an…

The threats are converging faster than government alone can respond. At last year’s Threat Conference, leaders from across intelligence, cyber, cloud, AI, defense technology, and national security made one thing clear: the old lanes no longer exist. AI is changing offense and defense. Gray zone conflict is already underway. Cognitive warfare is targeting trust and decision-making. Ukraine is rewriting the future of conflict. China is setting conditions inside critical infrastructure. Digital authoritarianism is spreading. And the private sector is no longer optional — it is part of the national security operating environment. The “before times” are ending. That is why The Cipher Brief Threat Conference exists: to bring the people who understand the convergence into the room before the next crisis arrives. Join us this fall for a look around the corner — at the threats, technologies, and decisions that will shape 2027 and beyond. Learn how you or your organization can participate at: tcbconference.com

The nuclear order is showing dangerous cracks. Amb. Joseph DeTrani warns that Iran’s election as a vice president of the NPT Review Conference - despite IAEA safeguards noncompliance - comes as North Korea, China and Russia accelerate nuclear risk. thecipherbrief.com/nuclear-arms-r…

Washington and Tehran are edging closer to escalation, but the key to avoiding a spiral lies in a single backchannel run by Pakistan's Army Chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir. Javid Ahmad details how this opaque mediation exposes Pakistan to enormous risk. thecipherbrief.com/pakistani-gene…

Cuba’s economic crisis and weakening alliances may have created a rare strategic opening for Washington. The immediate priority, the author argues, should be pushing Russian and Chinese intelligence operations off the island. thecipherbrief.com/getting-our-ad…

The frontline of national security no longer stops at government systems. It now runs directly through corporate networks, cloud infrastructure, and supply chains. Read more. thecipherbrief.com/corporate-cybe…

Former CIA Senior Executive Robert Dannenberg shares how this year’s diminished Victory Day celebrations in Moscow reveal a Kremlin that is increasingly worried about Ukrainian strikes and internal instability. thecipherbrief.com/russias-victor…

The playbook is written. The tools are cheap. The defenses? Not ready. Russia’s “Narrative Kill Chain” + open-source frontier AI = scalable cognitive warfare at global reach - just as elections approach. This isn’t persuasion. It’s information chaos. thecipherbrief.com/the-last-undef…

Inside the Pentagon’s High-Stakes Nuclear Overhaul thecipherbrief.com/inside-the-pen…

Latin America’s leftward shift is hitting economic and political limits. From Colombia to Venezuela, rising crime, inflation, and U.S. pressure are reshaping the hemisphere’s strategic landscape. thecipherbrief.com/latin-americas…

North Korea is rapidly expanding its nuclear arsenal - new enrichment sites, advanced ICBMs, & possible Russian tech support. Experts warn: Pyongyang is moving from deterrence to warfighting capability. Is the U.S. missing this threat? thecipherbrief.com/that-other-nuc…