Communication Breakdown
100 posts
Communication Breakdown
@thecombreak
Two brothers analyze hot takes from within their respective political echo chambers. They laugh. They learn. They.. forgot what point they were about to make.
Katılım Nisan 2025
314 Takip Edilen24 Takipçiler
@rowanfornow Meanwhile, Backemeyer needs to ensure he doesn't blunder into using some of that war chest to signal-boost Ahlman. Could end up with a semi Streisand effect.
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@rowanfornow Even though I disagree, I find this to be the most compelling argument for not backing Ahlman. It's a very short time frame, so I hope he'd consider an Aug/Sept drop if both polling and fundraising bear out that he isn't viable.
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@ahlmanforne youtu.be/7jK2eIpj6-c?t=…
18:10, in case the time stamp doesn't come through in the link
YouTube
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@ahlmanforne Member when they called Bernie the spoiler in his '88 race, despite the fact that the Dem came in third and spoiled his chance at the seat? Ooo, I membah!
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To everyone throwing out spoiler accusations: I think it’s a little hasty to be calling for Chris Backemeyer to drop out.
He should get the chance to prove he’s viable, same as me.
Communication Breakdown@thecombreak
Dem candidate loses five points the more the electorate hears about him. @ahlmanforne gains eleven. Dems haven't won the seat since the 60s. Who would be playing spoiler here, exactly? #nebraska #cd1
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@chicanery134 So now you've shifted from "the respondents didnt read bios; the pollster just gave an extra detail in the question" to "well the pollster is just biased."
Amazing work.
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@thecombreak @PollTracker2024 @ahlmanforne The guy who ran the poll with a narrative to push liked the results? 🤯🤯🤯🤯🤯🤯🤯🤯🤯🤯🤯🤯🤯🤯🤯🤯
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Zenith Research poll | 5/8-5/11 RV
US House 2026 | Nebraska's 1st congressional district
(Trump +12 | 2024)
(initial ballot)
🟥Mike Flood 45% (incumbent)
🟦Chris Backemeyer 38%
---
(post bio-ballot)
🟥Mike Flood 45% (incumbent)
🟦Chris Backemeyer 33%
------
(initial)
🟥Mike Flood 44% (incumbent)
⬜️Austin Ahlman 36%
---
(post-bio ballot)
⬜️Austin Ahlman 47%
🟥Mike Flood 43% (incumbent)
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Communication Breakdown retweetledi
Communication Breakdown retweetledi
It seems I’ve pissed some people off!
Look, taking on the establishment of both major parties was never going to be easy. They’re fighting back and that isn’t very surprising.
But here’s the deal – the overwhelming majority of real people in Nebraska – whether they’re registered Republicans or Independents or Democrats, they all want change. They’re sick of being looked down on and sold out on and lied to.
Congressman Flood is selling us out to big money donors as he climbs the ladder in Washington. Americans are ready to elect independents who work for them, not party bosses or corporate donors.
That’s why we’re going to win 💪
Lincoln Journal Star@JournalStarNews
A 28-year-old Norfolk native launched an independent bid for Nebraska's 1st Congressional District, drawing criticism from Republicans and Democrats alike. journalstar.com/news/state-reg…
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@vanillaopinions Osborn... the independent...
Jfc, just repeat back that entire thought anf let me know if you catch the point the second time.
It's safe R when its R vs D. It's a toss-up when R vs I. It's right there in front of you. Why do you refuse to look? Lol
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so if you're going to do this in an even somewhat competitive district, you need to coordinate to make sure the democrat doesn't run a campaign or is dropping out. no chance of winning outright, this will split the vote
Austin Ahlman for Congress@ahlmanforne
I'm Austin Ahlman. Nebraska is my home. This is our fight. You are my people. Let’s take Nebraska back.
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@DatGirlnosass @NickyFrank30 Imagine getting pissed at @honestpollster for referencing a Rasmussen poll in his tweet, lmao.
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@NickyFrank30 It’s actually so fucking funny how he said “zenith polling finds” to try to make you forget that’s his fucking company what weasel fuck lmao
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I think it's a bad thing that social media these days are flooded with people whose entire business is to create polling that makes the candidate paying them look attractive.
Adam Carlson@admcrlsn
TL; DR If you’re skeptical about the possibility of a Democrat winning NE-01, well…you should be. But a son-of-meatpackers, populist, anti-monopoly, anti-corruption, end-funding-for-foreign-wars, pro-2A, Osborn-style Independent candidate (@ahlmanforne) can win if that Democratic nominee drops out.
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@spicy1812 They're standard in every primary nationwide. It's the first step in determining any candidate's viability.
Do you know a lot about public polls? Specifically electoral ones?
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@thecombreak Post bio ballots are pure bullshit. They are not neutral arbiters of candidate quality. It's why you never trust internal polls.
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The Independent is barely doing better than the Dem in the initial ballot. Not every red district needs an independent.
Politics & Poll Tracker 📡@PollTracker2024
Zenith Research poll | 5/8-5/11 RV US House 2026 | Nebraska's 1st congressional district (Trump +12 | 2024) (initial ballot) 🟥Mike Flood 45% (incumbent) 🟦Chris Backemeyer 38% --- (post bio-ballot) 🟥Mike Flood 45% (incumbent) 🟦Chris Backemeyer 33% ------ (initial) 🟥Mike Flood 44% (incumbent) ⬜️Austin Ahlman 36% --- (post-bio ballot) ⬜️Austin Ahlman 47% 🟥Mike Flood 43% (incumbent)
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@janekleeb @admcrlsn @ahlmanforne I'm in the state, and I'm sure as fuck listening.
And considering how much I've seen you sweep for @kenmartin73's worming out of accountability, I'm considering leaving the party altogether.
Spend this time helping dems instead of twitter fights, jfc.
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No one from our state is going to listen to you...especially given how you attack Dems. Austin has no shot. He's a spoiler. He's not been involved at all in local or state politics. The real question is who is funding his campaign? This is a winnable seat this cycle and seems to have GOP finger prints on it. No different than what we just stopped with GOP interference in our Senate race.
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TL; DR
If you’re skeptical about the possibility of a Democrat winning NE-01, well…you should be.
But a son-of-meatpackers, populist, anti-monopoly, anti-corruption, end-funding-for-foreign-wars, pro-2A, Osborn-style Independent candidate (@ahlmanforne) can win if that Democratic nominee drops out.
Adam Carlson@admcrlsn
In 2024, Trump won NE-01 by 13 pts & Dan Osborn won it by 1 pt Race raters view at least 7 redder seats as more competitive than NE-01 Why? Because a Democrat can’t win there But a new poll from @ZenithPolls finds that a populist independent candidate — Austin Ahlman — can 🧵
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Communication Breakdown retweetledi
Unsurprisingly given the partisan lean of the district, in the initial ballot tests against a generic Democratic and a generic Independent candidate, Flood (R) leads by 7-8 points.
But after respondents see all three bios, Backemeyer’s (D) support actually *drops* by 5 points and Ahlman’s (I) support increased by 11 points, and he jumps to a 4-point lead over Flood (R).
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@chicanery134 @PollTracker2024 @ahlmanforne Guess I'll just have to trust your word, as an internet rando, over the guy who ran the poll, lmao. 🤡
x.com/i/status/20549…
Adam Carlson@admcrlsn
Unsurprisingly given the partisan lean of the district, in the initial ballot tests against a generic Democratic and a generic Independent candidate, Flood (R) leads by 7-8 points. But after respondents see all three bios, Backemeyer’s (D) support actually *drops* by 5 points and Ahlman’s (I) support increased by 11 points, and he jumps to a 4-point lead over Flood (R).
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@thecombreak @PollTracker2024 @ahlmanforne They are both “informed ballots” so yes, they are the same! Actual retard lmao.
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@bigseb31213 Flood won in '24 by 20 points. Where are you getting R+6?
Serious question: do you even live in the state? Much less the district? Maybe let the voters there figure it out, cause you're just talking out of your ass.
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guy deliberately running as a third party spoiler to ensure a Democrat is not elected in this R+6 district. "progressive" followed by all the usual suspects on here
these people exist to get republicans elected, that is all they want in life
Austin Ahlman for Congress@ahlmanforne
I'm Austin Ahlman. Nebraska is my home. This is our fight. You are my people. Let’s take Nebraska back.
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@chicanery134 @PollTracker2024 @ahlmanforne Nah, framing of the question and candidate bios are not the same. Where did you get that impression?
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@thecombreak @PollTracker2024 @ahlmanforne Yes, bios are whatever you want them to be. “Would you vote for a working class populist or a corrupt republican” is a bio. They’re not real. Learn anything about polling and get back to me.
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Dem candidate loses five points the more the electorate hears about him. @ahlmanforne gains eleven.
Dems haven't won the seat since the 60s.
Who would be playing spoiler here, exactly?
#nebraska #cd1
Politics & Poll Tracker 📡@PollTracker2024
Zenith Research poll | 5/8-5/11 RV US House 2026 | Nebraska's 1st congressional district (Trump +12 | 2024) (initial ballot) 🟥Mike Flood 45% (incumbent) 🟦Chris Backemeyer 38% --- (post bio-ballot) 🟥Mike Flood 45% (incumbent) 🟦Chris Backemeyer 33% ------ (initial) 🟥Mike Flood 44% (incumbent) ⬜️Austin Ahlman 36% --- (post-bio ballot) ⬜️Austin Ahlman 47% 🟥Mike Flood 43% (incumbent)
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