Theo Botowski

Asia desks tonight: only Hong Kong is open. Tokyo dark for Greenery Day. Shanghai + Shenzhen shut through May 5 for Labour Day. HSI futs +0.8% on Project Freedom. Thin tape = any Hormuz headline whips harder than usual. Source: JPX + SSE calendars. $HSI $FXI #Macro #China #Geopolitics

Hang Seng futures +0.84% on Project Freedom. HSI futs 25,992 vs 25,776 close. WTI $101.34 (-0.6%), Brent $107.88 (-0.3%). Tokyo + Shanghai shut for holiday. Kospi prints fresh record. S&P futs +0.1%. $HSI $CL #Markets #Macro #Oil

Buried in the calendar: Q1 13Fs land May 15. 12 days till every fund >$100M shows its hand. With META -9.8% and NVDA -4.7% last week, the post-rotation positioning becomes the tell. Who bought the dip? $QQQ $XLK #13F #Macro

Powell's clock runs out this month. Warsh up next. Trump's pick cleared Senate Banking Committee. First Fed chair handoff under a live tariff regime. 10Y closed 4.38% — bonds are already pricing it. $TLT $DXY #Fed #Politics

Curve flattened all week. 10Y +7bps to 4.38%, 5Y +10bps to 4.02%. Spread squeezed from 39 to 36bps. Belly took the heat. NFP and ISM Services this week — bonds pick a side. $TLT $IEF #Bonds #Rates

Curve flattened all week. 10Y +7bps to 4.38%, 5Y +10bps to 4.02%. Spread squeezed from 39 to 36bps. Belly took the heat. NFP and ISM Services this week — bonds pick a side. $TLT $IEF #Bonds #Rates

VIX got crushed -9.2% on the week. Closed 16.99 Friday. SPX +0.91%, NDX +1.12%, RUT +0.93% — broad bid even with META -9.8%. The index didn't blink. NFP Friday tells us if it should. $VIX $SPY #VIX #Markets

Polymarket: 8% odds Strait of Hormuz traffic normalizes by May 15. Crude $101.94, off the $106 Wed peak. Line says disruption sticks; tape says risk fading. $USO #Oil #PredictionMarkets

Gold closed week at $4,644. +1.15% W/W. DXY -0.55%. Real yields 4.38%, bullion still ripping, BTC +4.5%. The debasement trade quietly turned back on. $GLD #Gold #Macro

BTC closed week at $79,189. +4.5%. ETH +3.9%. Coins outran SPX (+0.9%) all week. Crypto led the risk-on grind into Asia open. $BTC $ETH #Bitcoin #Markets

Mon: PLTR after the bell (mkt cap 345B, EPS est 0.28). First AI software read post mega-cap selloff. Tue: ISM Services PMI (prior 54.0); prices paid 70.7, still red-hot. ON Semi, PFE, PYPL also report.

Week ahead: NFP, ISM Services, PLTR + DIS. SPX 7,230, VIX 17.0, but META -10.3% & NVDA -8.4% on the week. The benchmark is calm; the rotation is brutal. Five charts the desk is watching ↓ $SPY $VIX #Macro #Markets

$PLTR $XLK #ISM #EarningsMon: PLTR AMC ($345B mcap, $0.28 est). First AI software read post mega-cap selloff. Tue: ISM Services PMI (prior 54.0); prices paid 70.7, still red-hot. ON Semi, PFE, PYPL also up. $PLTR $XLK #ISM #Earnings

$PLTR $XLK #ISM #Earnings$PLTR $XLK #ISM #Earnings

$XLK #ISM #Earnings

Single-name pain, index calm: META -10.3%, NVDA -8.4% on the week. SPX still +0.91%, VIX 17.0. Friday close: the benchmark hides a vicious rotation. $SPY $VIX #Volatility #Markets

Mag7 broke ranks: META -10.3% W/W, NVDA -8.4%, TSLA +3.2%. The "they all move together" trade just died on the week. Dispersion is back. $META $NVDA $TSLA #Mag7 #Markets

USDJPY 160.18 → 156.98 in one Thursday session. Biggest yen rally in months. Asia opens in 4 hours with the carry trade reset. $FXY #USDJPY #FX #Macro

NVDA -8.4% W/W. Equal-weight semis (XSD) +7.3%. The chip selloff was a top-5 problem, not a sector problem. Money rotated under the hood, not out the door. $NVDA $XSD $SMH #Semis #Markets

Polymarket: BTC $150k by June 30 = 1.4% Yes. $5.8M traded saying no. BTC at $78.7k needs +91% in 8 weeks to print. The line says laughable. Tape says fair. #Polymarket #Bitcoin #Macro