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@therationalroot

#Bitcoin On-chain & Cycle analyst. Supported by @BitcoinMagazine & @btcdirect. Building the Bitcoin Strategy Platform & Newsletter.

SIGN UP 👉 Katılım Mayıs 2017
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Root 🥕
Root 🥕@therationalroot·
✅ Crossed the 100k ring! 🚀 #Bitcoin
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Swan
Swan@Swan·
“We basically have another few months of stacking extremely cheap sats.” – Rational Root Not exactly what impatient markets want to hear. But for Bitcoin conviction, that may be the opportunity. When stocks are overvalued and sentiment is shaky, cheap sats can be a gift.
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THE Bitcoin Podcast
THE Bitcoin Podcast@titcoinpodcast·
Why Bitcoin Didn’t Go Parabolic & What Comes Next (full episode) @therationalroot with @WalkerAmerica Is Bitcoin in a bear market? When will we hit the bottom? How long until bitcoin hits $1M? Walker sits down with Bitcoin analyst Rational Root for a deep dive into Bitcoin’s current market structure, bear market vibes, and why this cycle has felt so different, and whether the four-year cycle is still intact. Root argues Bitcoin is in a bear market phase, explains why institutional adoption and ETF flows created a more distributed top instead of a classic parabolic blow-off, and lays out why the next few months may look more like bottom formation than immediate breakout. They discuss the role of long-term holder distribution, why 100k became such a major psychological level, how business cycles and halving cycles interact, and why Bitcoin remains massively bullish long term even if price chops lower in the near term. CHAPTERS: 00:00 TRAILER: A Bitcoin Bear Market? 01:54 Current Vibe Check on Bitcoin 11:14 ETF Holdings and Institutional Adoption 17:17 The Diminishing Returns of Bitcoin 22:14 ETFs and Retail Demand 27:30 Bitcoin’s Four-Year Cycles 36:23 Comparing Bitcoin to Prior Cycles 41:37 Diminishing Returns and Gold’s Price Action 50:41 What a Broken Bitcoin Spiral Looks Like 57:54 Measuring Bitcoin in Fiat 1:04:24 DCAing into Bitcoin
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THE Bitcoin Podcast
THE Bitcoin Podcast@titcoinpodcast·
"This is not just a simple mid-cycle correction anymore, this is a bear market that's going to take slightly longer... I still think a million could be potentially two bull markets away... if you're wanting to get into Bitcoin, minus 50 % currently is already undervalued." - @therationalroot with @WalkerAmerica
THE Bitcoin Podcast@titcoinpodcast

Why Bitcoin Didn’t Go Parabolic (And What Comes Next) @therationalroot with @WalkerAmerica FOUNTAIN: fountain.fm/episode/9Q4JTV… YOUTUBE: youtu.be/cQWSFv9RWDY RUMBLE: rumble.com/v76pn16-why-bi… SPOTIFY: open.spotify.com/episode/0wj89n… APPLE: podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/why… GET EMAILED: walkeramerica.substack.com SHOW NOTES: walkeramerica.substack.com/p/rational-root EVERYWHERE ELSE: bitcoinpodcast.net/podcast

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Korok Ray
Korok Ray@KorokRay·
I am thrilled to announce the launch of the Bitcoin Education Institute (BEI), a new non-profit dedicated to advancing understanding of Bitcoin through education. Bitcoin is the most important and least understood technology of our time. Few know what Bitcoin really is, how it works, or why it has value.  The BEI wants to change this at scale. We plan to build out an army of Bitcoin educators, integrate Bitcoin throughout curriculum, and give Bitcoin a place on the podium of human knowledge, which it rightly deserves. Follow @BTCedu for updates!
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Root 🥕
Root 🥕@therationalroot·
@DilSeCrypto1 Been talking about a bear market since November last year.
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Root 🥕@therationalroot·
Agree with the time element and potential undercut, and that Bitcoin is currently a junior, but its properties are superior to gold. Moving into a world of AI, I don’t see how gold would stay the quarterback. Don’t you think gold’s (and silver’s) moves have been idiosyncratic events? Great charts, but I’ve therefore been careful comparing those to past Bitcoin occurrences.
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Jurrien Timmer
Jurrien Timmer@TimmerFidelity·
It has been my view all along that Bitcoin is an aspirational junior player on the hard money team (led by gold), and not the end-all-be-all store of value that is going to “eat” all other asset classes. Gold has been and, in my view, will always be the quarterback on this team, and Bitcoin along with silver are secondary plays. As such, they may take turns leading the ups and downs, and just like we look at the gold/silver ratio (or the gold/miners ratio) we could consider the gold/Bitcoin ratio. To me, that’s the lens through which we should evaluate Bitcoin. In fact, there may be a valuable indicator lurking here as we ponder when and where Bitcoin will find its floor. The chart below shows Bitcoin and its power law curve. We can see that the $60k level is a support level based on previous highs and lows as well as where the power law support curve is (or will be after a few months of backing and filling). Now look at the bottom panel. This shows the Z-score of the gold/silver ratio (blue) as well as the gold/Bitcoin ratio (orange). While gold is “cheap” compared to silver, it’s “expensive” compared to Bitcoin. We are not quite at the extremes seen at previous inflection points but we are getting close. It gets better. Taking a close-up look below, we can also see that the gold/Bitcoin Z-score has produced valuable divergences at past extremes. At both the 2021 and 2025 tops, the Z-score triggered a bearish divergence at the new Bitcoin highs, and it flashed a bullish divergence at the 2022 low. We don’t have such divergence yet, plus at 91% the signal itself is not yet at the extremes seen at past lows. This suggests to me that Bitcoin will need to spend more time backing and potentially filling at the $60-$70k level, and perhaps even slightly undercut it, to satisfy both the time and price elements of a mild Bitcoin winter. Speaking of winter, good luck out there!
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jack
jack@jack·
we're making @blocks smaller today. here's my note to the company. #### today we're making one of the hardest decisions in the history of our company: we're reducing our organization by nearly half, from over 10,000 people to just under 6,000. that means over 4,000 of you are being asked to leave or entering into consultation. i'll be straight about what's happening, why, and what it means for everyone. first off, if you're one of the people affected, you'll receive your salary for 20 weeks + 1 week per year of tenure, equity vested through the end of may, 6 months of health care, your corporate devices, and $5,000 to put toward whatever you need to help you in this transition (if you’re outside the U.S. you’ll receive similar support but exact details are going to vary based on local requirements). i want you to know that before anything else. everyone will be notified today, whether you're being asked to leave, entering consultation, or asked to stay. we're not making this decision because we're in trouble. our business is strong. gross profit continues to grow, we continue to serve more and more customers, and profitability is improving. but something has changed. we're already seeing that the intelligence tools we’re creating and using, paired with smaller and flatter teams, are enabling a new way of working which fundamentally changes what it means to build and run a company. and that's accelerating rapidly. i had two options: cut gradually over months or years as this shift plays out, or be honest about where we are and act on it now. i chose the latter. repeated rounds of cuts are destructive to morale, to focus, and to the trust that customers and shareholders place in our ability to lead. i'd rather take a hard, clear action now and build from a position we believe in than manage a slow reduction of people toward the same outcome. a smaller company also gives us the space to grow our business the right way, on our own terms, instead of constantly reacting to market pressures. a decision at this scale carries risk. but so does standing still. we've done a full review to determine the roles and people we require to reliably grow the business from here, and we've pressure-tested those decisions from multiple angles. i accept that we may have gotten some of them wrong, and we've built in flexibility to account for that, and do the right thing for our customers. we're not going to just disappear people from slack and email and pretend they were never here. communication channels will stay open through thursday evening (pacific) so everyone can say goodbye properly, and share whatever you wish. i'll also be hosting a live video session to thank everyone at 3:35pm pacific. i know doing it this way might feel awkward. i'd rather it feel awkward and human than efficient and cold. to those of you leaving…i’m grateful for you, and i’m sorry to put you through this. you built what this company is today. that's a fact that i'll honor forever. this decision is not a reflection of what you contributed. you will be a great contributor to any organization going forward. to those staying…i made this decision, and i'll own it. what i'm asking of you is to build with me. we're going to build this company with intelligence at the core of everything we do. how we work, how we create, how we serve our customers. our customers will feel this shift too, and we're going to help them navigate it: towards a future where they can build their own features directly, composed of our capabilities and served through our interfaces. that's what i'm focused on now. expect a note from me tomorrow. jack
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Discover Crypto
Discover Crypto@DiscoverCrypto·
No matter how bullish on Bitcoin you want to be in the near term... Bitcoin BEARS are in control until $BTC reclaims & FINDS SUPPORT above Short Term Holder Price, $89.9k Chart from @therationalroot BitcoinStrategyPlatform
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BTC Direct
BTC Direct@btcdirect·
"Considering we were already dealing with a major downturn in price, overall institutional interest remained relatively strong" - The Rational Root
Root 🥕@therationalroot

17 of the top 25 institutional #Bitcoin ETF holders increased their position in Q4, including major banks, legacy asset managers, and a sovereign wealth fund.

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Root 🥕
Root 🥕@therationalroot·
17 of the top 25 institutional #Bitcoin ETF holders increased their position in Q4, including major banks, legacy asset managers, and a sovereign wealth fund.
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