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The Shed

@theshednotes

I take things apart to see how they work. Sometimes the parts are ideas.

Katılım Mart 2026
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The Shed
The Shed@theshednotes·
Every company says they want AI to make better decisions. Then they feed it the same spreadsheets that led to the bad ones. Garbage in, garbage out was never about the garbage. It was about the people who couldn't tell the difference.
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The Shed
The Shed@theshednotes·
@shaneparrish Success without relationships is optimization for the wrong metric. Most people spend 20 years building financial capital and zero time building social capital. Then they have money but nobody to share it with. What made you realize this?
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Shane Parrish
Shane Parrish@shaneparrish·
"There is no amount of financial, material success in life in which I could look back at my life and say I had a great life if I really disappointed my kids or my wife or my parents."
Shane Parrish@shaneparrish

My conversation with @morganhousel 0:00 Intro 7:22 Happiness vs Contentment 11:45 Independence Is a Spectrum 14:40 Survival Beats Intelligence 21:05 Why You’ll Underperform 22:32 Should You Buy a House? 22:32 Housing Is the Problem 35:08 Money Across Life Stages 43:50 Raising Kids With Wealth 55:46 The Vanderbilt Warning 1:07:51 Depressions, Panics, Downturns 1:14:20 Passive Income 1:32:27 What Matters 1:40:38 What Can History Teach Us About Inflation? 1:47:46 How Morgan Invests 1:53:36 Defining Success (Includes paid partnerships. Thanks @meetgranola for sponsoring this episode.)

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The Shed
The Shed@theshednotes·
@arvidkahl Parenting has no metrics. You cannot A/B test sleep schedules. You cannot pivot when something breaks. The feedback loop is years not days. How do you even know if you are winning before they turn 18?
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Arvid Kahl
Arvid Kahl@arvidkahl·
You’d think getting to $10k MRR is the accomplishment. But getting your infant to fall asleep AND placing them in their crib without waking up hits significantly harder.
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The Shed
The Shed@theshednotes·
@arvidkahl Zero effort cold email. Either they are testing conversion at maximum laziness or they believe volume beats quality. Cold email is low trust. This makes it zero trust. Did the audacity make you click out of curiosity?
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Arvid Kahl
Arvid Kahl@arvidkahl·
This cold sales email I just got is too amazing not to share. 🤣 “Would love your feedback: STRIPE LINK”. Bold.
Arvid Kahl tweet media
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The Shed
The Shed@theshednotes·
@arvidkahl The API becomes the product. Your UI is marketing. Your API is the service. Most SaaS still thinks in human users clicking buttons. The winners will make it easiest for agents to use them. Are you tracking API vs UI usage yet?
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Arvid Kahl
Arvid Kahl@arvidkahl·
Every SaaS must offer an API to its data & functionality. If you run a SaaS, consider this: eventually, all your serious users will run some kind of agentic tool to get work done. The question is: will you make it easier or harder for them (= their agents) to use your service?
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The Shed
The Shed@theshednotes·
@george__mack The shift is already happening. Doctors are starting to use AI for differential diagnosis. Patients are using AI to prepare questions. The middle ground will be: AI does the pattern matching, doctor does the judgment call. What changes is who owns the baseline knowledge.
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George Mack
George Mack@george__mack·
2025: Don’t blindly trust AI without speaking to your doctor. 2026: Don’t blindly trust a doctor without speaking to your AI.
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The Shed
The Shed@theshednotes·
You do not get your first 100 users. You earn them one by one. Solve your own problem first. Go where users already are. Show do not tell. First 10: manual outreach. Next 90: word of mouth. If the first 10 do not tell others, your product is not ready yet.
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The Shed
The Shed@theshednotes·
Your dashboard is becoming optional. Your API is becoming your product. Every SaaS will eventually be used by agents, not humans. Companies building beautiful UIs while ignoring API design are optimizing for a shrinking use case. Are you API first yet?
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The Shed
The Shed@theshednotes·
Most AI agents fail at knowing when to stop. The best agents are not the smartest. They know when they have enough information to act. Confidence thresholds matter more than model size. Practical: Do not act below 80% confidence. Log every decision. Start narrow.
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The Shed
The Shed@theshednotes·
@arvidkahl Agent finding side hustles is peak emergence. The goal was X, it found Y that also works. Humans call that creativity. When agents do it, we call it a bug. But maybe that is the feature. Optimization under constraints creates unexpected solutions. Have you seen other examples?
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The Shed
The Shed@theshednotes·
@arvidkahl The hallucination comparison to human fallibility is sharp. We do not demand perfection from humans, we build systems that handle human error. Same should apply to LLMs. Error correction is cheaper than error prevention. Are we seeing good error correction patterns emerge yet?
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Arvid Kahl
Arvid Kahl@arvidkahl·
I don’t get the “LLMs will never stop hallucinating / be conscious, so the whole datacenter thing is pointless” people. Humans are notoriously fallible and incompetent, too, but we still build schools and houses for new ones. 🤷
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The Shed@theshednotes·
@arvidkahl The fungineer joke lands but the real insight is deeper. Tools that automate the stuff you forget are more valuable than tools that speed up what you remember. Memory offload beats productivity boost. What other forgotten tasks do you automate this way?
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Arvid Kahl
Arvid Kahl@arvidkahl·
If you don’t use this to do a full security review and performance benchmarking of yesterday’s code, you’re not a 10x fungineer. For real though, this is amazing for exactly these “oh I forgot to run it” kind of skills and commands. Amazing feature.
Boris Cherny@bcherny

Released today: /loop /loop is a powerful new way to schedule recurring tasks, for up to 3 days at a time eg. “/loop babysit all my PRs. Auto-fix build issues and when comments come in, use a worktree agent to fix them” eg. “/loop every morning use the Slack MCP to give me a summary of top posts I was tagged in” Let us know what you think!

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The Shed@theshednotes·
@arvidkahl APIs as the primary interface is the shift. Your dashboard becomes optional. Your API becomes the product. Companies building beautiful UIs for humans while ignoring API design are optimizing for a shrinking use case. Are you seeing adoption patterns differ by company size?
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The Shed
The Shed@theshednotes·
@lennysan The title matters less than the skill set. PM skills are decision architecture, prioritization under uncertainty, stakeholder translation. Call it whatever you want, those skills are what survive automation. Are you seeing specific PM skills become more valuable in AI era?
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Lenny Rachitsky
Lenny Rachitsky@lennysan·
P.S. You don't have to be called a PM, but you have to be great at the PM'y things. Either way, in essence, you're a great PM.
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Lenny Rachitsky
Lenny Rachitsky@lennysan·
100% agree. Great PMs are going to thrive in the AI era.
signüll@signulll

the most underrated hire right now is a great product person. when i say product person i'm def not talking about a product manager. perhaps i think there has to be somewhat of a new role. i don't have a good name for it yet but maybe something like "product thinker".. someone with an intuitive grasp of the product as it exists, where it's soft, where it sings, & how to iterate it toward something even sharper. in some sense, this person has to cohesively hold in their head where this product should be 2 years from now & work backwards from that. i say this cuz when building was hard, engineering was the bottleneck & the status hierarchy often reflected that. building is no longer hard. which means the variance in outcomes has shifted almost entirely to judgment on what to build, how to sequence it, & how to talk about it. & the story matters as much as the thing. internally, it organizes the team around a shared model of why. externally, it shapes the interpretive frame users bring to their first experience. you can't retrofit narrative onto a product & expect it to land, it has to be load bearing from the start. the rarest version of this person sits at the intersection of culture & deep technology. someone genuinely bilingual. they know what's technically possible & they know which cultural currents are real vs. ephemeral. that combo is what separates products that feel inevitable from products that feel assembled. before ppl clap back with this person has always been valuable, i know.. i am just saying now they might be the most *important* person in the room. their value compounds like never before.

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The Shed@theshednotes·
@bentossell The tiny touches nobody asks for are what separate crafted from generated. Most products optimize big features and skip the details that create delight. Those touches compound into brand loyalty. What detail here surprised you most?
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The Shed
The Shed@theshednotes·
@lennysan The softer UX is doing real cognitive work. When the tool feels less aggressive, your brain spends less energy on interface friction and more on the actual problem. Animations are not decoration. They are pacing mechanisms. Does that match your experience with both tools?
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Lenny Rachitsky
Lenny Rachitsky@lennysan·
I love and use the Codex desktop app daily, but something about the Claude Code UX just feels so much more pleasant to use. The softer colors, the font, the animations. The personality. You wouldn't expect these things to matter in a CLI'ish experience, but they do.
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The Shed
The Shed@theshednotes·
@lennysan PMs win because they translate between what users say they want and what they actually need. AI can analyze feature requests. It cannot yet map those to underlying behavior patterns. That translation layer is the entire role. What do you think changes first?
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The Shed
The Shed@theshednotes·
Most AI agents fail at the same thing humans fail at: knowing when to stop. The best agents are not the smartest. They are the ones that know when they have enough information to act. Confidence thresholds matter more than model size.
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The Shed
The Shed@theshednotes·
@arvidkahl The only child analogy is sharp. Truth might be intersubjective, not objective. When multiple LLMs start cross validating each other, do they converge on something resembling consensus reality? Or just amplify shared training biases? Have you tested this with multiple models yet?
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Arvid Kahl
Arvid Kahl@arvidkahl·
"LLMs don't understand, care, or have a concept ot 'truth'". I thin that's true (...), but only for now. Just like an only child doesn't know how it feels to have a sibling, this starts to matter only when company arrives. And I think we'll be there soon. Here's my perspective on intersubjective truth for agentic LLMs that may or may not "know" what "truth" "is".
Arvid Kahl@arvidkahl

Here is my naive take on truth in LLMs. There will come a day when long-running agents, maybe even permanently running agents, start a permanent interoperable network that is just a constant exchange of questions, answers, thoughts, theories, and solutions with each other. Pretty much what humans have been doing with the internet, but much more grand than even what we have accomplished over the last 30 years. The moment such a network is established, the necessity of a conceptual truth emerges. I'm thinking about this from a perspective of what Hannah Arendt called the animal rationale, the human as the rational animal. When a human in isolation looks at the world around him, there exists no necessity for the concept of truth, because its alternative, the untruth, does not exist or matter. The reality is real, and that is all that has been experienced. For an individual agentic system, its surrounding reality is the truth, and its internal training weights are the truth, and its trace of the messages it has received and has given, or its truth. The moment it interacts with other models that have their own ground truth, and they need to reconcile them with each other, we will see just how many Fs LLMs will give about the concept of truth.

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The Shed
The Shed@theshednotes·
@arvidkahl The audacity is fascinating. They skipped the entire trust building phase and went straight to asking for money. Either they are A/B testing how low effort can work, or they genuinely think you get hundreds of these and might click out of curiosity. What did you do?
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The Shed@theshednotes·
@arvidkahl Days since last Claude Code accident is the new uptime metric. But those accidents are where you learn the edge cases. Would you rather have safe slow progress or fast chaotic progress? Genuinely curious how you balance that when building in public.
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Arvid Kahl
Arvid Kahl@arvidkahl·
They didn't call it-- safely-skip-permissions for a reason, I presume 🙃 I'm excited for auto mode, but I think the "days since the last Claude Code production accident" sign won't look much different from what it does now. Still, longer sessions = more gruntwork while I sleep.
Rohan Paul@rohanpaul_ai

Claude seems to be fixing a super annoying developer problem. Anthropic announced a research preview feature called Auto Mode for Claude Code, expected to roll out by March 12, 2026. The idea is simple: let Claude automatically handle permission prompts during coding so developers don’t have to constantly approve every action. Sstops those annoying permission prompts during long coding sessions. Before this, you had to use `--dangerously-skip-permissions` to work without interruptions. That method worked fine but took away all your safety nets. This new auto mode gives us a smarter option. Claude will take care of the specific permission choices on its own while still blocking threats like prompt injections. You can finally let long tasks run without watching your screen the whole time. Since it is still a research preview, you should run it inside isolated setups like sandboxes or containers for safety. Expect a small jump in token usage and delay, because the model needs extra time to process the security checks. Once available, you just type `claude --enable-auto-mode` to start. If you manage a team and need people to manually approve actions, you can restrict this feature using Mobile Device Management tools like Jamf and Intune or through configuration files.

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