波浪狗 | TheWaveDog
224 posts
波浪狗 | TheWaveDog
@thewavedog
Market structure | Elliott Wave | Order flow & liquidity | First-Principle Thinking 用技術面、波浪結合數據，洞察市場本質
Katılım Ekim 2021
582 Takip Edilen84 Takipçiler
看了一下 Perps 赛道数据，八个字总结：惨不忍睹，孕育新生
🔸肉眼看不出来，但我用 OI / Volume 这参数一算，还挺有意思，比例在 1 以上的，只有 Hyperliquid、Variational、Lighter 这三家
🔹Variational 一个月前，每日交易量 7 亿，今天只有 2.3 亿，撸毛人基本都放弃了，但是资金沉淀一点没少，OI 排名第 4 名，不点破了
Perps 赛道其实和 CEX 的简化版很像，无需 KYC 的交易平台，刚需肯定有的
最近一家对冲基金的朋友，说开始研究链上大宗商品跨平台套利，挺有意思的。
这不，华尔街入场了？
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🚨 $BTC fakeout alert: That upside wave looked impulsive... but Wave 3 wasn't extended enough & couldn't be the shortest → invalid impulse.
Just more chop/consolidation.
@TRDR_io BTCUSDT perp 10% depth flashing red bars again → downside usually follows.
Watching for 5-wave bear move on 8H/12H/1D to confirm trend flip. Bulls, stay tight.
What TF are you seeing? 📷
波浪狗 | TheWaveDog@thewavedog
The downward impulsive move failed to continue, withdrawing my bearish prediction. Failure to break lower increases upside probability. A break above the prior high (~74K) would form a leading diagonal (classic in wave 1 of an impulse pump). If that happens, strong confirmation the bottom was already in around 60K. Right now it’s embarrassing chop which could flip either way any minute. But once the move commits? High-conviction continuation locked in.
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The downward impulsive move failed to continue, withdrawing my bearish prediction.
Failure to break lower increases upside probability. A break above the prior high (~74K) would form a leading diagonal (classic in wave 1 of an impulse pump). If that happens, strong confirmation the bottom was already in around 60K.
Right now it’s embarrassing chop which could flip either way any minute. But once the move commits? High-conviction continuation locked in.
波浪狗 | TheWaveDog@thewavedog
I entered a short about 12 hours ago. Now I’m watching whether the move develops into a clear 5-wave impulse on the hourly timeframe. If it does → it likely confirms a broader correction on higher timeframes.
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I received a Pacifins today.
Thank you so much to the @pacifica_fi team and the community.
I was incredibly happy
it’s hard to believe that someone as ordinary as me could receive such a special gift.
Pacifins are soulbound NFTs (SBTs).
They are awarded to participants in the ongoing bootcamps, competitions, and community activities.
Owning a Pacifins doesn’t come with any special benefits.
But having one is something I’m truly proud of.
Take the time to learn more about pacifica.gitbook.io/docs/
And keep swimming.
Thanks to @ottionhl for creating such an amazing piece of art.
I’m also grateful to @_guynemer for taking the time to help me, even though my English isn’t very good.
Pacifica@pacifica_fi
🌊 Pacifins Volume 2 by Odd Otties 🌊 The @ottionhl team, together with Pacifica, is proud to introduce Pacifins Vol. 2, the next wave of our limited soulbound NFTs, created with the same heart, purpose, and community spirit that started it all. Because of the incredible love and support from our community, we knew we couldn’t stop at just one drop 💫 Just like before, Pacifins aren’t about trading. They aren’t about profit. They’re about belonging. 💙 More details👇
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Curious how others are counting this structure.
Anyone seeing a different wave count here?
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If the move down only forms another 3-wave structure,
then the triangle is probably still unfolding.
In that case I’ll close the short and reassess.
Elliott Wave gives the structure.
Order flow helps with timing.
Risk management keeps you alive.
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Most traders think BTC is breaking out.
It just rejected 74K.
I’m short.
The rally since Feb 5 still looks corrective, not impulsive. If this count is right, we may be finishing wave E of a triangle before the next leg down.
Full breakdown 🧵
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Paradex is scam, Cascade is scam, nado is scam and 95% of perp going to scam you.
They can’t beat Hyperliquid and Lighter in terms of anything, whether you talk about tech or you talk about metrics.
Only few perp dex is going to cook like Pacifica, Hibachi, Variational, Extended cuz they have a solid community with good traders who signed up there not to farm but actually to trade.
And I’m talking about Hibachi cuz they are building FX with perp dex and they are backed by Circle and top ventures. And also they have zk type of privacy tech so yeah kinda highly bullish on this.
That’s it
Hibachiooo ❤️🔥
Hibachi@hibachi_xyz
@hibachi_xyz on @arc is like being on the app store in 2007 together we are going after the $10T/day FX volumes still running on outdated rails trillions
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@gumpbing 謝謝老哥分享。
ostium融資背景其實不錯。
資方General Catalyst，出手不多，但投的項目很實在，回報也不錯，之前領投了KiteAI，現在也上了幣安，開盤到現在一路高走。
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想要参与下 @OstiumLabs
纯RWA 细分赛道龙头，机构宠儿
现在不是最早期了，距离 tge 估计半年左右
交易成本挺高的，昨天我去体验了下，等明天分数出来，就可以大概算下盈亏比
不过从目前情况估算，我认为肯定是有利可图的
如果 2026 RWA 彻底爆发，项目估值应该低不了
欢迎探讨交流。
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