Thibault

Observations and tick data from Hyperliquid's crude oil perps and Polymarket's Iran contracts: 1. The first consequential event was during market hours: the U.S. Ambassador to Israel emailed embassy staff warning them to "leave Israel TODAY" just before 3:30am eastern time on Friday. 2. News of the email didn't leak on Twitter until OSINTDefender posted it at 6:50am. x.com/sentdefender/s… 3. Crude on CME was moving at 4:30am, at 5am someone bought 500k of CL on Hyperliquid in one clip, and Polymarket prices were moving before 6am. 4. During the actual strike (outside of market hours), Polymarket led. The Feb 28th contract started moving at 1:12am, March 31 at 1:13am, and CL on Hyperliquid at 1:14am. The first Tweet I can find about the strike was at 1:13am, shortly after Polymarket started moving: x.com/Osinttechnical… 5. The market maker on Hyperliquid CL is smart. Already short, and shorter after getting filled by the 500k market buy, that same address realized its mistake and turned around, placed a huge bid at the same price, and managed to get flat before the price moved up. First set of fills for the 500k market order: ... and the MM getting out of the position ASAP