Thomas Gardiner

@SinaToossi Conversely, if deal was reached to lift sanctions, increased Iranian oil production could drive downward inflation pressure. Iran has >10% proven reserves but <5% of production - even modest move to long term potential capacity could be significant contribution to global supply

There is a strong case Iran can better withstand prolonged Hormuz disruption than its adversaries. For decades, Tehran has pursued autarky and self-sufficiency in critical domains, from food to medicine to water, and over the past decade has further adapted to sustained and severe sanctions pressure, while expanding land trade and pipelines for energy exports. The global economy has no comparable buffer and remains deeply exposed to Hormuz. As @FT’s @gideonrachman notes, the shock from the Strait’s closure since Feb 28 is only now "really kicking in", given much oil and gas was already at sea when the war began. The head of the IEA warns this is the greatest energy security crisis in history, exceeding the shocks of the 1970s, which triggered years of inflation, recession, and fuel rationing in many economies. And most importantly, escalating further will not resolve this imbalance. It will amplify it.

TSSA General Secretary @MEslamdoust responds to new cabinet committee dealing with the fallout for Iran crisis - “We welcome the government taking steps in response to the cost of living crisis. They must now consider making public transport free to provide immediate relief."

Top trolling by Al Jazeera. Hegseth claims all Iran's leaders have disappeared to hide underground, so editors immediately flash up footage of Iran's President Pezeshkian strolling around Tehran today, taking selfies with ordinary Iranians.

Most reporting: "Iran is randomly lashing out at neighbours for revenge" without any thought that striking all nearby hostile military bases & early warning sites is entirely rational initial military strategy. Just another version of the racist "Iranians are lunatics" narrative

Everyone's rightly focused on Mandelson's heinous & traitorous past crimes, but could someone maybe check on what he did to imperil UK national interests in last 2 years as ambassador & advisor to PM? What information did he access? Has he shared it with his current contacts?

The British left today: "Zohran Mamdani is amazing, we MUST emulate everything about him - his policies, his comms, his focus, his mobilisation..." The British left this time next week: "So maybe we just copy his circus-style typeface and keep everything else the same?"

@AaronBastani It's actually worse than that Aaron - this BBC piece deliberately lies about the level of purity required for weapons grade uranium. BBC states 60% purity required (presumably because it's the level of purity Iran enriches to) when in fact over 90% purity is required for weapons

Utterly ridiculous & bordering on active disinformation - Wikipedia and ChatGpt are better! On foreign policy the BBC broadly exists to keep the public ignorant and uninformed. I’d scrap BBC online altogether. Why am I compelled to pay for such low information slop?

IAEA say "no credible indications of an ongoing, undeclared structured nuclear programme" in Iran & find precisely ZERO grams of weapon grade uranium. Yet yesterday in Parliament several MPs falsely claim IAEA think weaponisation imminent. How can such lies stand unchallenged?

Here's the minister introducing Gender Recognition Bill in 2003 saying it'd amend equality legislation to protect trans people in acquired gender. But Supreme Court judgment somehow concluded there was no evidence that Parliament wanted to protect trans people in acquired gender

In short: Supreme Court says Parliament definitely did not intend to amend definition of "sex/woman/man" to protect trans people in their acquired gender. But ministers explicitly stated on record that this would be the effect when taking the legislation through Parliament 🧵

ONE LAST REMINDER: Don't direct your anger at me, this thread isn't my view of what's "right" or "wrong", it's just based on what I could find by comparing Supreme Court judgment with Parliamentary records

A long and pos confusing thread, but seems hard to ignore that Supreme Court failed to consider Parliamentary record of Parliament's intent and instead inserted the Court's own view, which is contrary to what ministers told Parliament when key equality legislation was passed

Reluctant to post on trans judgment, as feelings run so high, but I can't shake the observation that the Supreme Court has made some major errors, particularly around the court's assessment of parliament's intent. A lengthy 🧵