Tigirs 会课讲好授教是好老师

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$TSM 台积电最新季报利润大涨77%股价却依然大跌，看看媒体解读都是错的。 独家估值解读和投资策略 对于AI泡沫和下游客户存储半导体CPU/GPU有什么信号？为什么这么惊艳不涨反跌？财报到底看什么？ 它的收入增长更多来自价格提升，这个不是单纯提价，而是买先进制程的产品高端货，这当然是企业最大竞争力来源，所以即便是新上马2nm制程产线爬坡开始会牺牲毛利，但Q3毛利率仍指向66%，说明现有先进制程的利用率、产品组合和成本改善极强。 但市场会认为风险和瑕疵在于，继续加大投资新品，肯定利润涨但是现金流会低，因为投入产出的时间差存在。这就是成长的烦恼，增长正在变得越来越资本密集。 要看CEO魏哲家的发布，有些很多比如客户需求强2030增长AI没问题，CPU重要性之类的，市场普遍共识，何况你卖货的吆喝，市场不一定信服买账。 但对于 $INTC Intel的明确信号在于业内目前的封装已经全满，对于不同于台积电的技术路线的Intel Foundry的EMIB-T的封装技术需求肯定还会继续出现大客户。 最大负面警示在于他也说了，半导体并不是全面复苏，主要是AI。但消费类和价格敏感型市场正受到零部件涨价和宏观不确定性冲击。 目前价格盘后大跌400，25倍今年PE，20倍PE 27年20/EPS，估值不贵但是谈不上便宜，极端15-18 倍PE估值。 台积电的强劲不是对“AI资本回报担忧”的证伪，反而说明云厂商的资本账单还会更大。IBM所体现的企业预算从软件和服务转向服务器、存储、内存的现象，在台积电这里得到了上游验证。 所以我在周报反复强调主线在于要看 AI不会死于没有需求，但可能死于收入和成本节省跑不过折旧、资本支出与资金成本。 具体台积电 $TSM 估值范围以及周报策略见订阅者专享内容

Struggling to stick to a new schedule Small wins work! Start with going to bed 30 mins earlier and waking up at the same time daily—your body will thank you!

Want to pick up a fun new skill Try hand lettering—no fancy tools needed, just a pen and paper! 30 mins a day = tiny, proud progress. Start today

Just wrapped up a quick day trip to the old coastal town – salt air, street food, and perfect sunset views hit different ，

[15-min high-protein veggie wrap for your midday energy boost | grilled chicken, fresh kale, quinoa + light Greek yogurt sauce | #减脂餐 #HealthyEats]，

[Small steps = big joy! Try 10 mins of calligraphy daily to cultivate calm and creativity – your new hobby starts today ]，

Tried authentic Mexican chiles rellenos today! Crispy batter stuffed with melted Oaxaca cheese, smothered in tangy tomato salsa—10/10 comfort with a spicy kick

Just checked in to the hottest variety show recording site with my crew! The energy here is unreal—can’t wait to share the fun moments later ，

New arrival! Cold brew coffee u0026 fresh sesame balls in stock now—grab yours before they’re gone!

Just sipping iced lemon tea and watching fluffy clouds drift by—this is the kind of perfect slow moment I need ,

New semester vibes Fresh notebooks, new goals, and ready to level up every single day — let’s make this one count!

Just wrapped up a 3-day road trip to the coastal town—sunset, seafood and zero traffic jams hit different.

Just turned my sad rainy Tuesday into a warm sweet high! Freshly baked chocolate chip cookies still warm from the oven—nothing beats this tiny baking win #BakingJoy，

“Had such a sweet random chat with the barista this morning—small moments like this make my whole week brighter! Who’s had a nice little interaction lately ”，

Whip up a 2-min iced lemon honey tea: steep black tea, add ice, fresh lemon slice + a spoonful of honey. Perfect refreshment for warm afternoons!，