Tim Kindberg

The G in AGI stands for "general". General intelligence does not mean that you have been specifically trained for a large range of tasks. It means you can approach any NEW task and figure it out, just like humans do. If regular people can do it on their own (no guidance, no tools), why should AGI require special handholding and handcrafted instructions? If it's AGI, why would there still be a human in the loop, using their own human intelligence to guide the model on every new task?

The rapid advances we see in AI-derived mathematical proofs are almost certainly not representative of science in general. A core driver of these advances is that AI-derived proofs can be translated into a highly structured human-designed verification language, which can then be checked using traditional computer programs. The AI slop-cannon can generate as many slop attempts as needed to get a proof that works, because humans already built the de-slopification engine that automates digging the diamonds out of the slop. This kind of cheap validation does not exist in data science or the empirical sciences more broadly. In fact, validation in the sciences is often orders of magnitude more expensive than all the other parts, which is why AI is going to be much less effective there.

Can Nature please raise its standards

As a statistician, I keep asking myself how all these AI people are dealing with the massive potential for catastrophic errors in critical analyses, and the answer keeps being they either didn't think about it at all, or they don't care.

Wharton’s latest AI study points to a hard truth: “AI writes, humans review” model is breaking down Why "just review the AI output" doesn't work anymore, our brains literally give up. We have started doing "Cognitive Surrender" to AI - Wharton’s latest AI study points to a hard truth: reviewing AI output is not a reliable safeguard when cognition itself starts to defer to the machine.when you stop verifying what the AI tells you, and you don't even realize you stopped. It's different from offloading, like using a calculator. With offloading you know the tool did the work. With surrender, your brain recodes the AI's answer as YOUR judgment. You genuinely believe you thought it through yourself. Says AI is becoming a 3rd thinking system, and people often trust it too easily. You know Kahneman's System 1 (fast intuition) and System 2 (slow analysis)? They're saying AI is now System 3, an external cognitive system that operates outside your brain. And when you use it enough, something happens that they call Cognitive Surrender. Cognitive surrender is trickier: AI gives an answer, you stop really questioning it, and your brain starts treating that output as your own conclusion. It does not feel outsourced. It feels self-generated. The data makes it hard to brush off. Across 3 preregistered studies with 1,372 participants and 9,593 trials, people turned to AI on over 50% of questions. In Study 1, when AI was correct, people followed it 92.7% of the time. When it was wrong, they still followed it 79.8% of the time. Without AI, baseline accuracy was 45.8%. With correct AI, it jumped to 71.0%. With incorrect AI, it dropped to 31.5%, worse than having no AI. Access to AI also boosted confidence by 11.7 percentage points, even when the answers were wrong. Human review is supposed to be the safety net. But this research suggests the safety net has a hole in it: people do not just miss bad AI output; they become more confident in it. Time pressure did not eliminate the effect. Incentives and feedback reduced it but did not remove it. And the people most resistant tended to score higher on fluid intelligence and need for cognition. That makes this feel less like a laziness problem and more like a cognitive architecture problem.

Mueller was destructive and vindictive. He ruined people for a living. He was a terrible person and responsible for one of the worst manipulations of US intelligence in history - and he did it with full knowledge that he was lying.

Donald J. Trump Truth Social Post 01:26 PM EST 03.20.26 Robert Mueller just died. Good, I’m glad he’s dead. He can no longer hurt innocent people! President DONALD J. TRUMP