John Lee

@thestustustudio This happened at Fanatics Fest in NYC last year, too. And I think the prices were even worse.

🚨 Teamsters Turn San Diego Card Party Into a $150 Union Toll Booth Card-show vendors at San Diego’s Card Party say they were charged $150 just to roll their own inventory into the event on carts. These vendors are not giant corporations. They’re mostly hobbyists, collectors, and small business owners trying to bring boxes and cases of cards to tables they already paid for. They expected loading-dock rules. What they say happened instead is that the “anything with wheels” rule was allegedly enforced at the front door too. This is union power running wild — a $150 toll booth for ordinary people trying to move their own inventory into a show they already paid to attend.

@Royals_Cards @Kai_Patricelli Topps Chrome baseball gives similar results:

@Royals_Cards @Kai_Patricelli Removed 2025 and the results are the same: 2.9x

With a heavy heart, I have to say one of the strongest pillars of my business for the past decade is now dead. Value Bulk is no long an option for myself. It may or may not be for you. I'll do a much much longer write up on my thoughts later, but the numbers don't lie. I used sweeping assumptions for this. It is not exact. It does not represent every scenario. The model has flaws, but the general idea doesn't change. If you're good enough at the card market and your business to take $11,100 and turn your entire balance over even once a month, you will outpace the median expected outcome from grading. At a 5% margin.

@Royals_Cards @Kai_Patricelli No need to ask a repacker—we can look at the data: Market Movers ratios tool. 2023-2025 Prizm football over the past 30 days. 2.88x is the median difference bt a 10 and a 9. Similar results for most products.

@tipandpick @Kai_Patricelli 2.5-3x are outliers. Ask any repacker that does heavy volume. I guarantee it.

@BigBobsCards He’s an ass. And not because of the PSA thing—he’s just a narcissist.

It’s almost too obvious that the guy who is pro-Fanatics and has spent every waking hour over the last month bashing PSA is just trying to get as many people as possible to turn on PSA before Fanatics launches a partnership with someone else / starts their own grading service.

@Kai_Patricelli @Royals_Cards Those are exceptions, not rules. 95% of cards are 2.5-3x raw when gemmed. Using outliers as a basis for a devil’s advocate position is not a fair comparison.

@tipandpick @Royals_Cards Agree that QC has fell off a cliff with 25-26 product, but even a 40-50% gem rate for a high level grader on these products results in massive margins. Check out 25-26 Chrome Basketball, Flagg refractors are $250->~$1350, base $30->$300, I just think your estimation is off

@Kai_Patricelli @Royals_Cards Agree with your second point about the 2x estimation but few recent products have higher than 50% gem rates. And once those rates are established, PSA grades their graders against them, which means that no amount of pregrading that you might do will increase your gem rate.

@Royals_Cards I mean..you could also just have a higher than 45% gem rate which isn’t hard at all if you spend a little bit of time learning about cards & very little is double raw these days like in your calc. Even low dollar stuff $25 cards gemmed are $125-$150 depending on what it is.

@WaxMetrix Just ripped 70 value boxes. The thing that sticks out is that half of the numbered hits were paper, which are largely valueless unless it's a big name. 7 autos (5x chrome and 2x paper) with a green as the most rare. Only one rare hit across 70 boxes--an Oh anime. Disappointing.

2026 Bowman Value Boxes Analysis Now that we have a full case rip in the books, I thought it would be a good time to re-evaluate a bit. Some of the results were exactly as we expected. Some were not. If you tuned in, I think we can all agree that the case I ripped was underwhelming. Sure, one case is a small sample size, but it does help us visualize what some of these numbers actually mean. Some big questions still remain: 1) Was our case below average or is this what you should expect when ripping a case of Value Boxes? 2) Would I still stand behind my assertion that Value Boxes are the best rip pound for pound when compared to other formats? I can help you with some of this, but ultimately, you will need to decide what's most important to you as there are distinct differences between the formats. Here's what we pulled vs what we expected to pull: Autos- 3. Expected- 4 I think we were just unlucky on this one. The numbers show pretty clearly that autos fall 1:10 boxes overall. Due to variance, I would expect some cases to have more than 4, some less. Mine was less. Parallels- 70 (+7 Red RCs). Expected: 70 The numbers hit this one right on the head. That said, this rip really helps us visualize what this 70 consists of. Chrome parallels- 13 (Expected- 12.4) (Gold /50- 1, Green /99- 1, Green Reptilian /99- 1, Green Shimmer /99- 1, Blue /150- 1, Fuchsia /199- 1, Purple /250- 1, Purple Raywave /250- 2, Speckle /299- 1, Lava /399- 1, Refractor /499- 2) Paper parallels- 17 (Expected- 15.2) (Pink /175- 3, Purple /250- 2, Purple Pattern /250- 2, Fuchsia /299- 3, Neon Green /399- 3, Sky Blue /499- 4) Reptilians- 40 (Expected- 40) Parallels Gold /50 or lower- 1 (Expected- 1.24) Rare Inserts- 1 (Expected- 1.3) (Patchworks) Honestly, results were pretty much as expected on parallels as a whole. 70 sounds like a lot of parallels to pull from a case. But you have to consider 40 of those are Reptilians at 1 per box. And numbered cards are predominantly /250 and higher, but that will be consistent from any format. The biggest surprise, and the reason why I think this was a pretty heavily underperforming case, is the metric I call quality hits. This encompasses all parallels and insert parallels /75 or lower, autos /100 or lower, and case hit level inserts or rarer. The odds show that you should expect one quality hit per 8 Value Boxes, or 5 per case. I pulled two (one Gold Chrome /50 and one Patchworks Insert). That tells me that ours was a distinctly below average case. For context, odds also interestingly show that Quality Hits should fall 1 per Hobby box and 1 per Jumbo. Though I always include this on my spreadsheets for periodic format ranking purposes, I did not include this on my initial Bowman write-up. What this tells us is, from a Quality Hit perspective, Hobby and Blasters are very close and both far superior to Jumbos. $/Quality Hit (Based on pre-order pricing) 1) Hobby- $240 tie 1) Value- $240 2) Jumbo- $520 Conclusion: Our case was a clunker. The only area we probably excelled were the Red RCs. Though we pulled one less than expected, our names included Murakami, Delauter, and Sal Stewart. From those, I'm hoping for at least one ROY, if not two, which would translate into some sweet Fancash. After some research, it looks like only the Red RCs in basketball are worth $200 since there is only one ROY winner. The Baseball versions appear to still redeem at $100ea. I misspoke on this in my video. Even for someone as immersed in the hobby as I am, it's a lot to remember. Do I still stand by my assertion that Value Boxes are the best format for value? Yes, with a caveat. For sheer parallel volume, Value Boxes win hands down. Just know that these will consist of predominantly unnumbered and high numbered parallels. This is not altogether different than Hobby, which will also produce one unnumbered Mini Diamond, one unnumbered Xfractor, and two unnumbered Reptilians per box. Those account for 4 of your avg 8.5 parallels per hobby box. Jumbo will have less parallels, but only one unnumbered Reptilian per box. As for as rare inserts go, I have to stress again that at 1 in ~30 boxes, Value Boxes are the most cost-effective way to pull almost all of them. I was unlucky in the fact that the one from my case was probably the worst subject of all those checklists. I mean, is anyone actually a Ceddanne Rafaela fan? If your objective is giving yourself the best chance to pull significant hits, Hobby is the best format. On paper, a better blaster case should give Hobby a challenge, but Quality Hits are more dense in Hobby, and the addition of Hobby exclusive Orange parallels help. If prices on Hobby boxes increase sharply over the $240 pre-order/$260 drop day pricing, this story will change. For sheer auto potential, Jumbo is king as always. Low-numbered first autos are some of the most sought-after chases in Bowman. If that is your objective and you don't care about ancillary metrics, then it may be worth it to you to pay up for Jumbos. They're just not good for much else, and the fact that these are going for far more than the pre-order price of $520 would worry me if I was a buyer. At $750+, I'm out. High risk, high reward on these. Breaker's Delight is a wild card. At 70%, they will produce by far the best percentage of numbered autos, but the fact that they dropped an auto from last year is frustrating. At 1.36 Quality Hits per box, they will be easier to come by than in any other format. The fact they don't win on any individual metrics can be misleading. Delight boxes are stacked. The question is are they worth the price since the only way for an average Joe to acquire them is on the secondary market. $75+ per card would be hard for me to stomach, especially knowing some of those will be base inserts. And to muddy the waters even more, Mega Boxes are still a question mark. They come out two weeks after everything else, so we'll be left in suspense for a while. There are two main components that will define if Megas are worth buying. We already know that rare inserts are not possible. But there's a chance the format can still be salvaged. Will they take lead provided by Bowman basketball and offer "1st Bowman" autos. They haven't in the past. And as of a month ago, I would have said there's no chance based on MLB Mega Box history. But then Bowman NBA goes and throws all that on its head and offers "1st Bowman" Autos. If this change happens in baseball, it's a game changer. Also, the odds for baseball and basketball megas both stated there will be one Mojo parallel per pack (6 per box). Anyone who's ripped a basketball mega box knows they produce 12 Mojo parallels/box (11 Mojo parallels, 1 Mojo insert). If we have double the expected parallels in baseball megas, this goes a long way toward making the format better. If this is not the case, then the only thing I can conclude is that Topps likes basketball fans more than baseball fans. So, overall, I have to stand by the Value Boxes as being the best bang for your buck. There are plenty of big hits hiding in Value Boxes...there just weren't in mine. And the simple fact that you will be able to get them at $30 MSRP means a lot. This will not be true of Hobby or Jumbo. I assure you, there will be nukes pulled from all formats of Bowman. Everyone's experience will be different. My data is based on averages extrapolated from odds. They certainly will not define what your experience will be. Buy what makes you happy. If I can give you one piece of advice, it’s this: Don’t go into a rip expecting to get your money back, no matter the format. It’s fun, but it’s still gambling. If you go in assuming you will only get back 25% of what you spent, you’ll end up being pleasantly surprised way more often than if you’re expecting to come out ahead. Good luck with your Bowman rips. #thehobby #SlabSquatchAnalytics #2026Bowman

@Will__Stern Could end up being a lagging indicator…which odd arguably why it’s happening a year later than it should have happened

PSA investing $200m to expand capacity is about as bullish a signal as you can find for the hobby.

@JustBB_Media Chase Burns??

The only starting pitchers with an ERA under 2.20 and a K-rate of at least 30% this season (min. 30 IP): Jacob Misiorowski 🔥 Paul Skenes Kyle Harrison 🔥 The Brewers have put together one of the top young pitching duos in the league!

@natsturner I’ll add: Why not increase the cost of grading TCG which enjoyed a discount for years (versus sports cards) since those cards account for 70% of daily volume? Supply and demand principles apply to all subsectors of your business.

@natsturner This is a year late, Nat…I’ve been supportive of a lot of what you’ve done but today was a tough pill to swallow—sharing news like this on the same day that PSA announces 6-month TATs is about as tone-deaf as it gets.

PSA Announces $200 Million Infrastructure Investment to Support Global Demand psacard.com/articles/artic…

@PSAcard @totodile_king Shut up already. You’ve had years to fix what’s wrong with your company and continue to screw over the same customers that had fed your success. The long game argument held water during COVID. Today, it’s disingenuous.

@totodile_king The hobby has grown to extraordinary levels, and unprecedented volume is the new reality. That’s why we’re playing the long game. Our current investments and operational updates aren't just quick fixes for next month, we're building a stronger foundation for the next decade.

To get PSA’s “discounted” bulk pricing you need a membership. If your cards arrived today, estimated completion is December 9, 2026. 140–160 business days. The grading bubble might actually be getting absurd. It’s not just TAG or CGC. It’s everyone.

@FanaticsCollect Today is Day 12 (business days) since I’ve requested cards from your vault. Website says “5-10 days” which is already confusingly long. What is taking so long to collect my property?

@BigBobsCards JMO, but Williamson is carrying too much weight to exhibit prolonged success. I suspect that played into Cleveland’s decision.

Oh wow I’m not sure how to feel about this. Bailey is obviously a great defensive catcher which the Guardians value but it further blocks Cooper Ingle and Tugboat has looked fantastic.

@bNeBREAKS1 Pablo Nunez

🚨 NOW LIVE 🚨 2026 Bowman 20 Box PYP/PYT! 10 Jumbo Boxes + 10 Hobby Boxes! 40 Autos! Planned to break on release day (5/13) or when the boxes arrive! Payments will be due by 5/11! (I will get a group chat going to give more details on payment and stream location) Shipping is included for USA! International pays what I pay! Base Paper is its own spot!! All chrome and color paper go to player/team spots! Dual Autos will be given time between owners to discuss a resolution. No resolution will result in a random draw for who gets the card. Claim Rules: 1. Only one claim per reply. (You can claim multiple spots via multiple post. Claims with multiple players will only receive the first spot available) 2. Be sure to make it clear who you are claiming or I will skip your claim. I will like your reply and respond with “yours” if you got the spot. It may take time so be patient. Claim 👇

@KnightsBaseball 12 walks in 16 IP. He’s not ready.

That’s our guy 🔥 📰: milb.com/charlotte-knig…

@dynastyinfo411 Give us reason to believe that Thomas White won’t get throttled by MLB hitters when he’s walking a batter every other inning against much lesser hitters. Good stuff, yeah, but I can’t name a MLB pitcher who can get away with that level of wildness and still be effective.

Starting Pitcher Prospect Rankings (Prospects in the majors weren’t included) 1. Kade Anderson (21, SEA, AA) 2. Jonah Tong (22, NYM, AAA) 3. Thomas White (21, MIA, AAA) 4. Robby Snelling (22, MIA, AAA) 5. Seth Hernandez (19, PIT, A) 6-50 rankings are at the link in my bio

@SixthManSlabs @steviewhis Why? The league has been going for 30 years and now actually has a player (a few players) that people want to watch.

@steviewhis I’m still weary of WNBA market long-term, but that could wind up being a very fruitful investment.

You have $10,000. You must put it ALL into one player today, and hold for at least 5 years. Any sport. Whose cards are you buying?

@pitchprofiler “Bold?!”

Bold prediction: Ryan Sloan will have the best stuff in Minor League Baseball this season. He’s only 20 years old.