Tilted Table

2K posts

Tilted Table

Tilted Table

@tltdtable

Teaching you how to be +EV. I don't work in a discord, but I'm in a bunch! Bet with me in the BetRecaps community! https://t.co/x5IptNABwa

Katılım Ekim 2023
121 Takip Edilen1.3K Takipçiler
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Tilted Table
Tilted Table@tltdtable·
OK as promised, here are some paid discords I'm in. I use them data, pings, and plays. I also have my own bots (separate topic). If you want an affiliate link to support me with like 3 bucks referral dm me, I don't work in any of them. [1/n]
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Tilted Table
Tilted Table@tltdtable·
wtae.com/article/carneg… Carnegie mellon potentially teaching a sports betting statistics class. If you were a professor teaching sports betting, what are some topics you think more people should learn?
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Tilted Table
Tilted Table@tltdtable·
I haven't posted a bet in a minute because I feel like all my followers joined all the good discords I recommended and there's not much value in posting bets. One I didn't see from a cord Pistons series: Fanduel is 570/-820 Circa is 455/-600 Taking some FD to circa
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Mobley Diplomat
Mobley Diplomat@EV_Mobley·
@tltdtable That is fair. The problem is trying to time buying back before the rebound.
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Tilted Table
Tilted Table@tltdtable·
Intermittent stock market question... Is there any reason the stock market hasn't tanked way further than it has? Tariffs, retaliatory tariffs from china, Elon saying we have to take the pain, etc. I'm normally a buy and HODL guy but tell me why I should keep holding.
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Tilted Table
Tilted Table@tltdtable·
@EV_Mobley I feel like he kinda gave the game away by saying and implying over and over that it's not his economy for the first 6-12 months, so to me it sounds like he'll enjoy it collapsing and then taking credit for the improvement headed into midterms.
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Mobley Diplomat
Mobley Diplomat@EV_Mobley·
@tltdtable This is anecdotal, but my best guess is the market feels trump will ultimately make decisions that are business friendly.
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Tilted Table retweetledi
EVBetsMA
EVBetsMA@EVBetsMA·
Hey ⁦@DraftKings⁩ that’s not how O/U works.
EVBetsMA tweet media
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Tilted Table
Tilted Table@tltdtable·
@DoctorG0lf Never joined your cord, so I can't speak to it. No argument, just wanted to know the truth. You build your own MLB models then?
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Doctor Trades
Doctor Trades@DoctorTrades1·
Thank you, I’m very open about my approach now. I use 0 models for any other sports and am a top down bettor. I used a blend of models for mlb and looked for agreement between the models to take bets. So that’s MY process. I truly didn’t know what batx was until I got accused of using them but it is solid and I did add it to what I use. This is also about something a long time ago we haven’t had mlb for months. So not sure what the argument really is anymore.
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Tilted Table
Tilted Table@tltdtable·
@DoctorG0lf is sharp and have followed his page for a while. Dude clearly makes money and has a solid track record through pikkit. I hope he either credits the models he's using or shows some proof of his own models. Using models for paid discords often has legal asterisks.
Bonesaw@BillyBonesaw

Woke up to @DoctorG0lf denying the accusation that he rips off popular models (batx) to sell them to his discord. The point of this thread is not to dispute that he is a winning bettor, but to show he is not being truthful. Below are numerous occasions in which he posted overnight strikeout props shortly after Batx released their projections with time stamps and proof of batx projections (i have a back log)⬇️

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Tilted Table
Tilted Table@tltdtable·
@EVBonesaw @DoctorG0lf I think @DMProps had a thread on this a while ago, so shout out to him too. I tend to avoid "drama" and use my platform to educate but selling someone else's work and calling it your own feels weird.
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Bonesaw
Bonesaw@BillyBonesaw·
@tltdtable @DoctorG0lf Yep. He is a winning bettor which I never tried to dispute. My issue is the not crediting the models like you said. Even at times trying to pass themselves off as his own.
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GAMBLE
GAMBLE@gambleshouse·
@tltdtable They’re all wrong. Believe it or not it’s ok to have independent thoughts
GIF
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Tilted Table
Tilted Table@tltdtable·
Average gambler on twitter. If each leg is -EV (just picking random teams or not +EV legs), parlays increase hold with each leg. Also, spoiler alert, most retail books short-pay on SGPs pretty aggressively, so this is *usually* even worse for SGPs.
GAMBLE@gambleshouse

@ButlerBets Parlays don’t increase the hold, unless they’re intentionally short paying you which most retail books aren’t. They increase betting volume.

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GAMBLE
GAMBLE@gambleshouse·
Why won’t you bet something you know is right? I’m offering to escrow. Im offering the lay odds. And you want me to keep looking at charts that are wrong What else you want me to do? I thought we were gamblers on here. You don’t even wanna gamble on something you’re 100% right about? But have the balls to call me out on twitter for being wrong Bet some money, or stop yapping
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GAMBLE
GAMBLE@gambleshouse·
@tltdtable One of us offering to bet it. The other guy yelling that he’s right and refusing to bet it Welcome to gambling Twitter 🫡
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GAMBLE
GAMBLE@gambleshouse·
@tltdtable Alright. Since this is going nowhere I’ll make you an offer only a crazy person would turn down if they’re right My $10,000 to your $5,000 We escrow the money and bet it publicly. Deal?
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GAMBLE
GAMBLE@gambleshouse·
@tltdtable Watch the class. It’s free you’ll learn something. I’ll accept you not agreeing to make a public bet as you conceding that you’re wrong. Thank you 🫡
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Tilted Table
Tilted Table@tltdtable·
@gambleshouse Yes but your payout over time is also held more. The hold from each leg compounds as you add more legs. You're just handwaving away the actual critical parts of the math dude!
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GAMBLE
GAMBLE@gambleshouse·
You keep adding the hold together. That’s your mistake The 2nd , 3rd, 4th leg of a parlay has its own independent hold. The house edge on leg 1 is 4.5% the house edge on leg 2 is also 4.5% … however it’s 4.5 of a larger # because you won the first leg. The hold is defined as the % edge the house has on a given bet. The house has no larger edge on any bet you make on a parlay assuming they’re all priced the same
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Tilted Table
Tilted Table@tltdtable·
@gambleshouse Bro your class is 5 youtube videos with AI generated thumbnails and half of them are like 3 minutes long. You keep avoiding answering my question or any of the other commenters saying you're wrong, so I'm gonna end this chat here lol. Have a good night man.
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GAMBLE
GAMBLE@gambleshouse·
Yes. I did multiple times. I promise you 100% I’m right and I’d be stealing from you if we made a bet. This is the reason I spent a year of my life and 100k developing a class I’m giving away 100% for FREE. There’s a lot of misleading / wrong information out there and I’d like to do my part to educate recreational bettors. With that said I’m NOT advocating to bet parlays. I’m simply explaining what the math behind them is
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GAMBLE
GAMBLE@gambleshouse·
@tltdtable Learn something that’s wrong? 😂😂😂😂😂 Bet it since you’re right, or stop crying
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Tilted Table
Tilted Table@tltdtable·
That settles it. Imagine paying for a sports betting masterclass for this dude to tell you THAT NORMAL PARLAYS DON'T INCREASE HOLD. Man I'll tell you free, they do. Save your money, go pay for any of the dozen discords I don't work in but have publicly endorsed.
GAMBLE@gambleshouse

@tltdtable You’re adding two independent bets together to double the hold. Mathematically that’s incorrect. If you make 2 straight bets, did you bet into a 9% hold or did you bet into a 4.5% hold twice? (Yes these are different things)

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Tilted Table
Tilted Table@tltdtable·
@gambleshouse Can you refute my math? Genuinely. If you're right, I'll publicly apologize.
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GAMBLE
GAMBLE@gambleshouse·
@tltdtable Im still waiting for the part where you stop crying about something you’re wrong about and offer the bet this publicly. $1,000 $5,000 $10,000 $100,000 You pick the number. We can publicly escrow and bet it 🫡
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Tilted Table
Tilted Table@tltdtable·
@gambleshouse x.com/tltdtable/stat… Man just read the math and learn from it lol
Tilted Table@tltdtable

@gambleshouse Theoretical settlements of earlier legs in a parlay is certainly a bizarre and complicated way to do it. -110+-110 parlayed is +264. Fair is +300. If you bet 100$, you win 264 and lose 300 on avg. -36$/400$ is 9%. The book has a 9% hold on a 2 leg parlay.

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Keşfet

@EV_Mobley @DraftKings @gambleshouse @elonmusk @BarackObama @taylorswift13 @cristiano @BillGates