Babak 🇺🇦 🌻

@thebradfordfile Arrests being made on right side of split-screen, left side interview with Zexi Li on CBC News cbc.ca/player/play/20…

This is North Korea shit…👇👇

S&P 500's June 2021 peak PE at 30.8 (99th %tile, below Dec 1999's 35.8 an all time record which would put $SPX +5000) such high #valuation corresponds to poor long term returns - a slightly negative 10 year annualized total return! chart via @LeutholdGroup

Jeremy Grantham of GMO recently spoke with @johnauthers on the same topic with less equivocation: "The last 12 months have been a classic finale to an 11-year bull market" bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

ICYMI: Ray Dalio gives a quick overview of his judgement re current #valuation and whether we are in a stock market bubble: youtu.be/X2ag_mfUgBU

NFIB small business #sentiment 99.6 - notice the response regarding expectations of the economy improving in the lower panel

"The Cleveland Fed model’s r-squared [based on monthly data back to 2003] was highest at 23%, followed by the University of Michigan consumer survey at 20%, and the five-year breakeven inflation rate at 0%." marketwatch.com/story/is-infla…

Cleveland Fed #Inflation Expectations Model (1-5 years)

ICYMI: David Rosenberg @EconguyRosie on the #inflation vs #deflation debate & his recommendation of long 30 year Treasury bond, potential +25% return over 1 year youtu.be/cI1TyZF9KA4

#Bitcoin, devoid of any fundamentals & inherent value, is as pure a manifestation of the aggregate financial id as we'll ever encounter: chart of Goldman Sachs Risk Appetite metric compared to the price of Bitcoin (YoY).

@f_helou @EconguyRosie You're right, the point Rosenberg is making is that consensus is at an extreme level of crowding and that does typically suggest a contrarian response.

@TN @EconguyRosie Consensus is not always wrong (more often than not it’s not) especially when it comes to something that can become a self fulfilling prophecy

GMO cautions re #valuation by comparing EPS vs prices for 1990's market and today's EPS forecasts are 2-year forecasts. In the first chart, EPS forecasts grew at an annualized rate of 11.1%; in the second chart, EPS forecasts grew at an annualized rate of 6.4%.

Investors Intelligence weekly #sentiment survey of newsletters shows little change: bulls 54.5% (up by almost 0.9% pts from last wk) bears 16.2% (slight decline of 0.3% pts) correction 29.3% chart via @WillieDelwiche

NDR Daily Trading Sentiment 67.8% NDR Crowd #Sentiment Poll 71.5% Both are above extreme optimism demarcation lines with negative 1 year fwd expected returns.