John Authers

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If demography is destiny, we are entering an era when inflation will rise whatever central banks do, @johnauthers writes bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…

It's Fed Day! The central bank is likely to hold rates, but all eyes are on Jerome Powell's decision — will he stay or go? 🎥 Tune in as @JonathanJLevin discusses LIVE with @AllisonSchrager and @johnauthers Wednesday, April 29 @ 1:55pm EDT: x.com/i/broadcasts/1…

Caution is needed before making market comparisons to 1999, writes @johnauthers, but the similarities are getting too big to ignore bloomberg.com/opinion/newsle…

For stocks, the exuberance of semiconductors in the AI boom crowds out everything else. The SOX is up 47% in 18 days (though the streak looks in jeopardy today...) bloomberg.com/opinion/newsle…

The unasked question at the Warsh hearing was how Treasury is increasingly setting monetary policy in place of the Fed, says @johnauthers bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…

"This is a reaction to last April. Momentum traders got crushed then. This time, on bad news you'd sell a little and on good news you'd buy a lot." — Jim Masturzo on the mechanics behind one of the fastest market rallies in history, via @opinion / @johnauthers bloomberg.com/opinion/newsle… #MarketStructure #EquityMarkets #InvestorBehavior #MacroOutlook #MarketRally [Disclosures: bit.ly/3hT1PuD]

A string of IPOs by increasingly large — and controversial — unicorns could suck the life out of stock indexes, writes @johnauthers bloomberg.com/opinion/newsle…

.@johnauthers cites research suggesting that large unicorns tend to underperform for a period of time after IPOs while smaller companies added to indices by standards incl. profitability tend to outperform. That would be a problem for indices in a mkt driven by passive investing.

The ubiquitous TACO trade is succeeding because of a blind buy-the-dip strategy, writes @johnauthers bloomberg.com/opinion/newsle…

Why it won't matter what Fed nominee Kevin Warsh has to say at his confirmation hearing, according to @johnauthers bloomberg.com/opinion/newsle…

More diplomacy is on the cards, but the Strait of Hormuz isn't a faucet to be turned on and off, writes @johnauthers bloomberg.com/opinion/newsle…

As great as the Iran shock could have been, stocks are now hitting all-time highs, writes @johnauthers. What's going on? bloomberg.com/opinion/newsle…

Market is Frothy - Schiller CAPE Indicates Stocks Overvalued. From @johnauthers. @jam_croissant #SPX $SPX

As the S&P and Nasdaq hit an all time high @johnauthers notes that this sharp 10% rally in 10 days is more normal after a deep bear market. The chart from @WarrenPies of 3F shows the closest comparison to now is March 2000, when the Nasdaq bubble was about to burst. Gulp.

@WarrenPies Fascinating. I'm getting ugly flashbacks remembering all the rebounds from deeply sold-off positions in the rest of the table. Yes this is very different.

@johnauthers 10% in 10 days is all we are looking for here (technically 9.8% in 10 days).

The last 10-days have been unlike any 10-day period in the market since 1950. First, the S&P 500 is up 9.8% in 10-days, which is in the 99.7th percentile of all 10 day returns.

@WarrenPies To confirm my understanding, the "signal" occurs when the trough-to-peak move reaches 10%?

All of these previous cases occurred within the context of a much deeper drawdown. All but two of these cases ended the rally 10% or more away from new ATHs and the majority were still 20% below ATHs (bear market)...This is what makes the current rally unique.

The Iran War seems to be making its exit from the collective consciousness of equities market participants but to this point it continues to leave behind 'wreckage' such as $80+ Brent crude at yearend 2026. Chart courtesy of @johnauthers.

A rally in US stocks even after the weekend's news on Iran shows that bull-market momentum is refusing to be denied, @writes @johnauthers bloomberg.com/opinion/newsle…

Whether it's the US or Iran, blocking the Strait still means no oil, writes. Expect things to get worse before they get better: bloomberg.com/opinion/newsle…