John Authers

22.9K posts

John Authers

John Authers

@johnauthers

Columnist, Bloomberg @business. Previously 29 yrs @FT Englishman in New York. Mexicanophile. RedSox&Seagulls4ever. Views mine except RTs Please sign up below:

New York Katılım Ocak 2009
5.5K Takip Edilen83.9K Takipçiler
John Authers
John Authers@johnauthers·
For stocks, the exuberance of semiconductors in the AI boom crowds out everything else. The SOX is up 47% in 18 days (though the streak looks in jeopardy today...) bloomberg.com/opinion/newsle…
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Research Affiliates
Research Affiliates@RA_Insights·
"This is a reaction to last April. Momentum traders got crushed then. This time, on bad news you'd sell a little and on good news you'd buy a lot." — Jim Masturzo on the mechanics behind one of the fastest market rallies in history, via @opinion / @johnauthers bloomberg.com/opinion/newsle… #MarketStructure #EquityMarkets #InvestorBehavior #MacroOutlook #MarketRally [Disclosures: bit.ly/3hT1PuD]
Bloomberg Opinion@opinion

As great as the Iran shock could have been, stocks are now hitting all-time highs, writes @johnauthers. What's going on? bloomberg.com/opinion/newsle…

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Scarlett & Carter's BaPa
.@johnauthers cites research suggesting that large unicorns tend to underperform for a period of time after IPOs while smaller companies added to indices by standards incl. profitability tend to outperform. That would be a problem for indices in a mkt driven by passive investing.
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Albert Edwards
Albert Edwards@albertedwards99·
As the S&P and Nasdaq hit an all time high @johnauthers notes that this sharp 10% rally in 10 days is more normal after a deep bear market. The chart from @WarrenPies of 3F shows the closest comparison to now is March 2000, when the Nasdaq bubble was about to burst. Gulp.
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John Authers
John Authers@johnauthers·
@WarrenPies Fascinating. I'm getting ugly flashbacks remembering all the rebounds from deeply sold-off positions in the rest of the table. Yes this is very different.
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Warren Pies
Warren Pies@WarrenPies·
@johnauthers 10% in 10 days is all we are looking for here (technically 9.8% in 10 days).
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Warren Pies
Warren Pies@WarrenPies·
The last 10-days have been unlike any 10-day period in the market since 1950. First, the S&P 500 is up 9.8% in 10-days, which is in the 99.7th percentile of all 10 day returns.
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John Authers
John Authers@johnauthers·
@WarrenPies To confirm my understanding, the "signal" occurs when the trough-to-peak move reaches 10%?
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Warren Pies
Warren Pies@WarrenPies·
All of these previous cases occurred within the context of a much deeper drawdown. All but two of these cases ended the rally 10% or more away from new ATHs and the majority were still 20% below ATHs (bear market)...This is what makes the current rally unique.
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Scarlett & Carter's BaPa
The Iran War seems to be making its exit from the collective consciousness of equities market participants but to this point it continues to leave behind 'wreckage' such as $80+ Brent crude at yearend 2026. Chart courtesy of @johnauthers.
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