@neilksethi I will share the trading strategies and market updates for free via WhatsApp. If you want to know the details, free to join ✅
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toni tomara
50 posts
Following the better than expected IP report, Goldman edges their 1Q GDP tracking up a tenth to 3.3%. Real domestic final sales now +3.0%.
Neil Sethi@neilksethi
Industrial Production - Feb 2026 Feb industrial production sees broad based slowdown from Jan's surge neilsethi.substack.com/p/industrial-p…
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@neilksethi I will share the trading strategies and market updates for free via WhatsApp. If you want to know the details, free to join ✅
➡️Copy search input Reply "333" to WhatsApp: +12525079417
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This dovetails with a note from Tier1Alpha on Friday (included in the Week Ahead (neilsethi.substack.com/p/the-week-ahe…)), so before today's rally) that "realized volatility remains relatively subdued, leaving implied volatility at a notable premium.
"We suspect it is becoming harder to justify paying such a high premium if realized volatility continues to lag, so it is not surprising to see put skew start to come in while the right tail catches a bid for the first time this year.
"While positioning will remain dynamic as the situation in Iran continues to evolve, we view this as a strong sign that bears may finally be ready to throw in the towel."
Neil Sethi@neilksethi
Goldman: Index skew had been steadily bid for two months as we saw client layer on portfolio hedges, but Thursday saw one of the sharpest declines [in index skew] YTD. That combination might be reflecting simultaneous selling of longs and monetization of index hedges: position clearing. If that interpretation is right, it matters for how to think about the next move. When skew collapses because hedges are being taken off rather than added, it often means positioning has started adjusting – which can reduce the immediate downside pressure from forced selling. We think investors will likely continue to take chips off the table until we get further clarity on a potential de-escalation between the US and Iran.
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@neilksethi I will share the trading strategies and market updates for free via WhatsApp. If you want to know the details, free to join ✅
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MarketWatch: According to Dow Jones Market Data, 450 of the 503 individual equity issues included in the S&P 500 were higher in recent trading on Monday. That is on track for the most in a single trading day since May 27.
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@GlobalMktObserv I share my real-time TRADE alert (entry & exit points) on WhatsApp, free to join ✅
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🚨The Japanese yen is nearing the critical 160 level against the Dollar:
The yen weakened to 159.75 on Monday, matching its weakest level of the year, as the US Dollar strengthened on safe-haven demand amid the Middle East crisis.
As a result, Japan's finance minister said authorities are "watching developments with the utmost sense of urgency" and are prepared to take "bold steps" if necessary, a phrase that signals potential direct market intervention.
In 2024, authorities intervened several times after the yen weakened past 160 versus USD, making the current level a critical threshold.
The Fed and the BOJ have rate decisions this week, with both widely expected to hold rates unchanged.
The yen is caught between a strong Dollar, surging oil import costs, and a central bank that is running out of room to stay dovish.
Watch what is happening in Japan
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@GlobalMktObserv I share my real-time TRADE alert (entry & exit points) on WhatsApp, free to join ✅
➡️Copy search input Reply 333to WhatsApp: 18432003784
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🔴Is the long oil trade getting overcrowded?
Net long positions on Brent crude oil futures surged +65,438 lots last week, to 351,032, the highest since 2020.
This represents a more than 10-FOLD increase since December, the fastest pace in at least 6 years.
Bullish bets on WTI crude oil SPIKED to an 8-month high, according to CFTC data.
All while CTAs, the algorithm-driven trend followers, are now 100% long in both WTI and Brent futures, the first time this has occurred in US crude since September 2021 and in Brent since April 2024.
Institutional investors have rarely been this bullish on oil.
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Growth isn’t about being perfect overnight—it’s the small, daily “I’ll try again” that builds the life you want.
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