Tom Hou

@ShardiB2 Markets seems to believe Trump over Iran

Well that was fun while it lasted….

@AndreasSteno But markets seem to believe Trump over Iran

No one in history has ever created more complete random volatility than Donald Trump.

@ShardiB2 *IRAN'S MIZAN: THERE ARE NO TALKS BETWEEN THE US AND IRAN *MIZAN: REQUESTS TO REDUCE TENSIONS SHOULD BE PUT TO THE US

@ShardiB2 Trump tweet that he had talks with Iran to end war

wtf just happened

@ShardiB2 lol? Which one is it? *IRAN'S MIZAN: TRUMP'S COMMENTS ARE ATTEMPT TO CUT ENERGY PRICES *IRAN'S STATE-RUN MIZAN CITES IRANIAN FOREIGN MINISTRY

@ShardiB2 *TRUMP: HAVE HAD TALKS WITH IRAN REGARDING END TO HOSTILIES *TRUMP: INSTRUCTED TO POSTPONE ALL STRIKES AGAINST IRAN*TRUMP: TOLD DEPARTMENT OF WAR TO POSTPONE STRIKES

@aleabitoreddit It’s quite incredible. There must be still some narrow rotations going on.

$SIVE is up 6.7% today. You know you're doing something right: When the entire market from KOSPI to Nikkei is red. While individual longs from $TSEM to $AXTI are green. It's clear that this is now a stock picker's market. As thematic individual names in Oil, Rare Earths, to Semis, that the world is fighting over... Have strongly outperformed the broader market.

@aleabitoreddit I guess we are all just thinking cycles are in control and we're just living in a simulation

I've decided to keep Pandora's Box closed for a bit longer... There are too many national security implications that need to be figured out first! Going back to the comment section... it's pretty funny 90% of you are cheering for chaos?

@aleabitoreddit So Isreal is winning? US is losing less than Asia on a relative basis, but still losing? I'm actually quite concerned that the period of choppy indices and rotations is over and the next step is a correlation to 1 and down

One of the most brutal wipeouts occurred in Asian markets today. China's stock market: -3.63% Korea's (KOSPI / $EWY) stock market: -6.49% Japan's (Nikkei) stock market: -3.48 However if you look at Israel's Ta-125 stock market? +11.25% YTD and +67.21% 1Y. The US $SPY is down ~5% YTD, but faring better than their Asian counterparties. This data is very interesting since markets, not headlines, are usually the best largest indicators of: Winners and Losers of War. Especially with the ongoing energy conflict with the War in Iran.

@ShardiB2 That 200D also lines up right with the 88.6% fib (from Oct lows). Looks like a magnet to me.

$XAU GOLD Not looking so hot... a break here and that 200 day looms and breaking that, like the equity markets have done, would not be good IMO

@StormDirac @aleabitoreddit Thanks for your hard work. What do you think the company needs to do to bring serious institutional investors on board?

@aleabitoreddit Very happy to see that you see the potential of $SIVE, I worked hard for 8 years as CEO (total 10 years) to build Sivers to this position. Finally people starting to see what Sivers Semiconductors truly is. Thanks for spreading the word! 🙏

$SIVE is the upstream laser supplier for CPO and Silicon Photonics. They're the likely $COHR / $LITE type future light source for: - $AMZN Trainium Clusters - $MSFT Maia Clusters and possibly other hyperscalers like $META MTAI and $GOOGL TPU clusters. At a ~$200M MC. Relational Mapping (speculative): $SIVE (light source) -> $POET (optical interposers) -> $MRVL (Likely Celestial Captive) -> $MSFT Maia + $AMZN Trainium. $SIVE (light source) -> Ayar -> AiChip -> $AMZN Inferentia/Trainium $SIVE (light source) -> Enablence -> O-Net -> ? Asia Hyperscalers _ Ongoing: $SIVE (light source) -> Ayar -> GUC -> ? (Google $TPU) $SIVE (light source) -> Ayar (TeraPHY/SuperNova)-> Wiwynn (captive CPO) -> ? ( $MSFT, $META historically Wiwynn's largest clients). Because of captive models like $MRVL Celestial, they get a free ride. However, they do compete multi-source ELS against Lumentum, Coherent, and $MTSI with Ayar and win anyway in merchant models. But they win either way. For high-volume production ramp up, a large part of it depends on the ongoing Win semi qualification, but this will likely be a large indicator. Again supply chain BOM is extremely confidential. $AMZN will never tell anyone "Hey, we use $SIVE ". But if you put 1+1+1+1+1 together, you can piece together the likely suppliers. Most people see "Poet Starlight" uses $SIVE. Or Ayar uses $SIVE. But don't map all the multi-hop relations to see where they end up. I do think $SIVE is an extremely undiscovered opportunity as the next possible mini $LITE for Silicon Photonics at $200m MC. As they're the likely upstream laser supplier for hyperscaler supply chains for future CPO/Silicon Photonics scale up with cw dfb lasers and scale out with laser arrays.

@aleabitoreddit Their public markets are very rigged though. These IPOs can easily do a 10x on day one and nobody gets to participate in the IPO. Hot money dumps on retail, hard

What changed with the US IPO model? China out there IPOing their leading frontier companies like Minimax or Unitree at very compelling valuations at ~$5-$6B? In America, we have OpenAI at $800 billion; SpaceX at $1.7 trillion; possibly Stripe at $140 billion. Where are the Facebooks of the world, where retail actually can get upside instead of being exit liquidity?