Daniel O'Sullivan@TRBHorseRacing
🏇 A remarkable number of upgrades, but the bigger issue that I don't think has been recognised is how the system supports itself to keep justifying more upgrades, and the impact that has over time.
I'm happy to see races like the Golden Eagle elevated to Group 1 status, and other upgrades are well justified. A few I'm less convinced about.
The point I don't think gets enough attention is that the process has become increasingly self-fulfilling.
📊 In 2005/06 Australia had:
*⃣ 66 Group 1 races
*⃣ 80 Group 2 races
*⃣ 113 Group 3 races
*⃣ 288 Listed races
That's 547 black-type races, including 259 Group races.
📊 In 2024/25 we had:
*⃣ 76 Group 1 races
*⃣ 97 Group 2 races
*⃣ 173 Group 3 races
*⃣ 267 Listed races
That's 613 black-type races, including 346 Group races. While the total number of black-type races has grown significantly, the number of Group races has increased remarkably, by around 33.5%.
Has the quality of the thoroughbred population improved by anything like that?
If the purpose of the Pattern is to identify and separate the very best horses to help shape the breed, the distinction between ordinary and elite performances is increasingly unclear as more black-type opportunities are created.
💡The other consequence is that upgrades begin to justify future upgrades.
Committees quite rightly examine the previous and subsequent black-type form of horses contesting a race.
But as more Group and Listed races are added to the calendar, those same horses naturally accumulate more black-type form simply because there are more opportunities to do so.
A few years later, the race under review appears to have stronger black-type credentials, which then helps justify another upgrade. That, in turn, creates even more Group form references for future assessments.
It's largely the same pool of horses competing over the same 52-week racing calendar, but each expansion of the Pattern creates more evidence to support the next one.
That's the aspect of the topic I think deserves much more discussion than whether any single race should or shouldn't be upgraded.
❓How do we account for the self-fulfilling nature of the process that leads to upgrades? Where does it end?
