
TomTom
2.7K posts

TomTom
@tomt33701
Software engineer, true crime lover







NEW: The DNA found inside Nancy Guthrie’s home was only a partial sample and was not viable for CODIS, a source familiar with the investigation tells me.












Methodology: “Active shooter” uses the FBI definition (attempted/actual killings in a populated area; not a victim-count “mass shooting” threshold). Time window is Feb 17, 2021–Feb 17, 2026 (5 years). Numerator: 4 incidents attributed to trans/nonbinary perpetrators using an “include borderlines” rule (i.e., cases where credible reporting described the perpetrator as trans/nonbinary, including disputed claims). Denominator: FBI totals are published for 2021–2024 (183 incidents). 2025 and early 2026 FBI totals weren’t published, so total incidents for the full window are estimated at 212–224; cis incidents are total minus 4. Population base: trans adults assumed to be 0.8% of U.S. adults (~2.1M); cis adults are the remainder (~260.4M). Rates are annualized incidents per 1,000,000 adults per year: trans rate = 4 / (2.1M × 5) × 1,000,000 = 0.381. Cis rate uses (total−4) / (260.4M × 5) × 1,000,000, yielding ~0.160–0.169 depending on whether total incidents are 212 or 224; the chart shows the midpoint 0.165. Caveats: small numbers (4 cases) mean results swing a lot if you add/remove one case; the denominator is estimated until FBI publishes 2025/early-2026 totals; and this is “active shooter incidents,” not “mass shootings.”






















