@dscher1983 Target 3 is 6147.
Reevaluate downside scenarios if we get there
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tom 🖍
13.2K posts
tom 🖍
@tomthetrader1
I manage my portfolio primarily through the lens of technical analysis— drawing lines on a chart.
Alberta Side of The Rockies Katılım Mayıs 2018
505 Takip Edilen24.2K Takipçiler
@tomthetrader1 Could possibly blow past that if some trump antics over the weekend...lots of momo to these last couple days.
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60 pts away from Target 2 6300 👀
Quite an escalation today.
I’ve said it before, a risk-off focus is not sexy, but boy is it rewarding when you manage it right.
Have a great weekend. As always, longer format note on Sunday ✏️
tom 🖍@tomthetrader1
System is still risk-off. There is plenty of early bottom calling going on X— for me, all rallies are considered as relief rallies, in a corrective move there will be plenty of them. Prior support levels are already acting as resistance. This is where I expect relief rallies will stall. A bounce is in the cards sure, a bottom call— insufficient criteria to have any meaningful degree of confidence. S&P 500 levels 6500, 6300 and 6147 remain active targets for this corrective move. Risk-on barometers like IWM and ARKK are breaking through key support levels. Market breadth is negative, more stocks are making new lows vs new highs. Simple as that. Momentum is pointing down and at the lowest levels in a year but a far cry from the depths of a momentum low. Sentiment is finally depressed, active fund managers haven’t hit the panic button yet. It can get worse. Blah blah blah “everyone is hedged”, “largest put buying”— noise noise noise. Trend, breadth and momentum all saying risk-off is the present environment.
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Risk off is a bear case if you so choose to participate. I have a short entry on the S&P 500 from 6750 & 6800, closed half on last Friday’s session.
I will like to add exposure back on (1) a rejection ~6700 or (2) confirmed breakdown below 6500. Less keen on the latter as risk management less desirable.
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@tomthetrader1 hey man, risk off is a base case, so whats the bear case?
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Since rebound came, game should be simple here
Set SL as yesterday low (give little tolerance), let longs ride
tom 🖍@tomthetrader1
I repeat, all rallies are to be considered relief rallies. Nothing more, for now. Risk-off remains the base case. At some point that will change, but for me— not yet.
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“all rallies are considered as relief rallies”, including this morning reversal from last nights futures trading
tom 🖍@tomthetrader1
System is still risk-off. There is plenty of early bottom calling going on X— for me, all rallies are considered as relief rallies, in a corrective move there will be plenty of them. Prior support levels are already acting as resistance. This is where I expect relief rallies will stall. A bounce is in the cards sure, a bottom call— insufficient criteria to have any meaningful degree of confidence. S&P 500 levels 6500, 6300 and 6147 remain active targets for this corrective move. Risk-on barometers like IWM and ARKK are breaking through key support levels. Market breadth is negative, more stocks are making new lows vs new highs. Simple as that. Momentum is pointing down and at the lowest levels in a year but a far cry from the depths of a momentum low. Sentiment is finally depressed, active fund managers haven’t hit the panic button yet. It can get worse. Blah blah blah “everyone is hedged”, “largest put buying”— noise noise noise. Trend, breadth and momentum all saying risk-off is the present environment.
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@TexadaTimewarp7 Good work. I don’t focus on lower targets until my risk-off alarm triggers— that was Feb 23 & Mar 3
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@bubblingwhale If this turns out to be valid, which it could be, risk criteria will flip— trend gets recaptured, breadth goes positive and momentum moves up. This will certainly happen after a bottom but well before the suggested height of the advance in Mike’s chart
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@tomthetrader1 Two interesting different views
x.com/MrMikeInvestin…
Mike Investing@MrMikeInvesting
Over the next 30 days many will create generational wealth from the S&P 500… Currently the McClellan Oscillator & RSI readings on $SPY are the most oversold since April 2025. The last time, I spotted this setup $SPY blew to a new ATH before collapsing. This exact playbook will play out once more. Don’t miss it…
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System is still risk-off.
There is plenty of early bottom calling going on X— for me, all rallies are considered as relief rallies, in a corrective move there will be plenty of them. Prior support levels are already acting as resistance. This is where I expect relief rallies will stall.
A bounce is in the cards sure, a bottom call— insufficient criteria to have any meaningful degree of confidence.
S&P 500 levels 6500, 6300 and 6147 remain active targets for this corrective move.
Risk-on barometers like IWM and ARKK are breaking through key support levels.
Market breadth is negative, more stocks are making new lows vs new highs. Simple as that.
Momentum is pointing down and at the lowest levels in a year but a far cry from the depths of a momentum low.
Sentiment is finally depressed, active fund managers haven’t hit the panic button yet. It can get worse.
Blah blah blah “everyone is hedged”, “largest put buying”— noise noise noise. Trend, breadth and momentum all saying risk-off is the present environment.
English
The system is doing what I had hoped when built, signalling a shift from the year long risk-on market to a risk-off segment. Two alarms in two weeks, this Sunday's note the discussion firmly around risk-off.
2/23 Alarm 🚨
3/3 Alarm🚨
3/8 Risk-Off
Blah blah blah geopolitical events, not my lane. The market. started flashing risk-off alarms to start the final week of Feb.
Money tends to know before the headlines.
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